03-07-2006, 04:26 PM
ANALYSIS - India-U.S. ties surge but some mistrust lingers
By Y.P. Rajesh Mon Mar 6, 8:42 AM ET
NEW DELHI (Reuters) - A successful visit to India by U.S.
President George W. Bush has dramatically bolstered ties between the two countries but decades of mistrust will not be erased overnight.
Bush, by sealing a landmark atomic deal that aims to end India's global nuclear isolation, has recognised New Delhi's ambitions to emerge as a regional economic and strategic power and is expected to help in those goals being reached.
But long years of mutual suspicion, particularly in India over Washington's friendship with Pakistan, its unreliability in the past as a source of technical equipment supplies and a large anti-American constituency, would ensure caution despite the newfound bonhomie, analysts said.
"What has happened is the redrawing of the global power architecture where Bush has decided that we need a better and stronger alliance with India," said Chidanand Rajghatta, the Washington-based foreign editor of the Times of India daily.
"India's immediate concern was to get out of being in the nuclear doghouse for 30 years. But it will play along with the American strategy even though it may not say so," he told Reuters.
The nuclear deal reverses in one stroke three decades of American prohibition on sales of atomic equipment and fuel to India, which conducted its first nuclear test in 1974 and has refused to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), calling it discriminatory.
The deal needs to be approved by a sceptical U.S. Congress first and accepted by the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), an informal club of nations that controls global nuclear trade, before India can get fuel and equipment for its stuttering atomic energy programme.
"NATURAL PARTNERS"
When that happens, it would officially anoint India, a nuclear pariah, as the world's sixth nuclear power after the United States, Russia, Britain, France and China.
It would also help establish India and the United States, who were on opposite sides of the Cold War, as key allies from a little over three decades ago when Washington sent the Seventh Fleet to the Bay of Bengal to threaten India which was involved in the freedom struggle in what was then East Pakistan.
"The United States and India, separated by half the globe, are closer than ever before, and the partnership between our nations has the power to transform the world," Bush told Indian business leaders hours before he concluded his visit last week.
While the nuclear deal is a pillar of that growing partnership between the two sides, Washington and New Delhi are also forging deep bonds across an array of areas, ranging from farming to space and commerce to security.
Although a refusal by Congress to approve the nuclear deal would be a setback, it is not expected to significantly alter the momentum generated in the relationship, analysts said.
"The nuclear deal is not an event. It is part of a process between the two countries," said one senior Indian foreign ministry official. "There are too many moving parts in this relationship for it to be made or unmade by one issue."
Besides, the deal is expected to take more than a decade to achieve its energy objectives and even then it would not reduce India's dependence on oil, experts said.
DOUBTS REMAIN
Most analysts believe that Washington is backing New Delhi only to build a strong counterbalance to China's economic and political might and the nuclear deal is a price to pay.
India, the world's largest democracy, is Asia's third largest economy and home to the world's fourth largest military and a large English-speaking work force, making it the perfect choice for the United States against a communist China, they say.
Besides, India and the United States, being geographically on opposite sides of the globe cannot threaten the other or intrude into the other's affairs beyond a point, they said.
"Why should we have a problem if they want us to counterbalance China?" asked Naresh Chandra, a former Indian envoy to Washington.
"What does India want? Do we want to be taken forever and ever as an inconsequential country not threatening anyone or rise to a level that people feel concerned if not threatened," he asked.
The new bonding between India and the United States would mean that New Delhi's strategic policies are likely to be influenced by Washington.
But India, with its long history of non-alignment, pride and growing confidence would not slavishly follow the American line, analysts said.
However, sceptics in India advised caution.
"While it is clear India wants to be America's friend and strategic partner, it is less obvious whether the U.S. wants to be India's friend or merely capitalise on this country's growing geopolitical importance and abundant market opportunities," analyst Brahma Chellaney said.
"The least an over-romantic India can do ... is heed to the (former U.S. President Ronald) Reagan dictum: trust but verify," Chellaney wrote in Monday's Hindustan Times.
By Y.P. Rajesh Mon Mar 6, 8:42 AM ET
NEW DELHI (Reuters) - A successful visit to India by U.S.
President George W. Bush has dramatically bolstered ties between the two countries but decades of mistrust will not be erased overnight.
Bush, by sealing a landmark atomic deal that aims to end India's global nuclear isolation, has recognised New Delhi's ambitions to emerge as a regional economic and strategic power and is expected to help in those goals being reached.
But long years of mutual suspicion, particularly in India over Washington's friendship with Pakistan, its unreliability in the past as a source of technical equipment supplies and a large anti-American constituency, would ensure caution despite the newfound bonhomie, analysts said.
"What has happened is the redrawing of the global power architecture where Bush has decided that we need a better and stronger alliance with India," said Chidanand Rajghatta, the Washington-based foreign editor of the Times of India daily.
"India's immediate concern was to get out of being in the nuclear doghouse for 30 years. But it will play along with the American strategy even though it may not say so," he told Reuters.
The nuclear deal reverses in one stroke three decades of American prohibition on sales of atomic equipment and fuel to India, which conducted its first nuclear test in 1974 and has refused to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), calling it discriminatory.
The deal needs to be approved by a sceptical U.S. Congress first and accepted by the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), an informal club of nations that controls global nuclear trade, before India can get fuel and equipment for its stuttering atomic energy programme.
"NATURAL PARTNERS"
When that happens, it would officially anoint India, a nuclear pariah, as the world's sixth nuclear power after the United States, Russia, Britain, France and China.
It would also help establish India and the United States, who were on opposite sides of the Cold War, as key allies from a little over three decades ago when Washington sent the Seventh Fleet to the Bay of Bengal to threaten India which was involved in the freedom struggle in what was then East Pakistan.
"The United States and India, separated by half the globe, are closer than ever before, and the partnership between our nations has the power to transform the world," Bush told Indian business leaders hours before he concluded his visit last week.
While the nuclear deal is a pillar of that growing partnership between the two sides, Washington and New Delhi are also forging deep bonds across an array of areas, ranging from farming to space and commerce to security.
Although a refusal by Congress to approve the nuclear deal would be a setback, it is not expected to significantly alter the momentum generated in the relationship, analysts said.
"The nuclear deal is not an event. It is part of a process between the two countries," said one senior Indian foreign ministry official. "There are too many moving parts in this relationship for it to be made or unmade by one issue."
Besides, the deal is expected to take more than a decade to achieve its energy objectives and even then it would not reduce India's dependence on oil, experts said.
DOUBTS REMAIN
Most analysts believe that Washington is backing New Delhi only to build a strong counterbalance to China's economic and political might and the nuclear deal is a price to pay.
India, the world's largest democracy, is Asia's third largest economy and home to the world's fourth largest military and a large English-speaking work force, making it the perfect choice for the United States against a communist China, they say.
Besides, India and the United States, being geographically on opposite sides of the globe cannot threaten the other or intrude into the other's affairs beyond a point, they said.
"Why should we have a problem if they want us to counterbalance China?" asked Naresh Chandra, a former Indian envoy to Washington.
"What does India want? Do we want to be taken forever and ever as an inconsequential country not threatening anyone or rise to a level that people feel concerned if not threatened," he asked.
The new bonding between India and the United States would mean that New Delhi's strategic policies are likely to be influenced by Washington.
But India, with its long history of non-alignment, pride and growing confidence would not slavishly follow the American line, analysts said.
However, sceptics in India advised caution.
"While it is clear India wants to be America's friend and strategic partner, it is less obvious whether the U.S. wants to be India's friend or merely capitalise on this country's growing geopolitical importance and abundant market opportunities," analyst Brahma Chellaney said.
"The least an over-romantic India can do ... is heed to the (former U.S. President Ronald) Reagan dictum: trust but verify," Chellaney wrote in Monday's Hindustan Times.