06-09-2006, 10:34 PM
<!--QuoteBegin-Capt Manmohan Kumar+Jun 9 2006, 09:01 PM-->QUOTE(Capt Manmohan Kumar @ Jun 9 2006, 09:01 PM)<!--QuoteEBegin--><!--emo&
--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/sad.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='sad.gif' /><!--endemo--> Boom or bust
The PM has underperformed. What chance has he now?
6 June 2006: Letâs for a moment think for the prime minister, although we no longer set much store by Manmohan Singh, nor expect terrific delivery in the remaining three years of his term. Yesterday, his aides put out that the PM was very upset with the slack in reforms, and one consequence of it is a hike in petrol and diesel prices, despite the Leftâs opposition. How much chance does Manmohan have in whatâs left of his primeministership?
The PM has four oppositions or factors to deal with, the opposition to him is rather mixed, the only formal opposition, the BJP-NDA, does not really oppose him but opposes the Congress president, Sonia Gandhi, and to the extent that Manmohan Singh faces flak by association, there is no remedy. On a personal level, the BJP is not his real opposition, although it is fair to say the BJP is no opposition at all.
Sonia is a factor more than an opposition, a big factor, a key factor, whatever. The disadvantage is she knows little about politics and next to nothing about governance, both are proven by how the UPA lurches from one crisis to another, even as the anti-reservation issue simmered, the office-of-profit controversy broke loose. >From what appears, the Congress president does not think long term of Congress interests, she does not know better, if she had, she would never have permitted Arjun Singh to fool with OBC quotas, OBCs never having supported the party and never likely to.
Unable and unwilling to think long term, Sonia counts her blessings that the UPA government survives, but day-to-day survival needs kill the vision thing, so the PM cannot expect that from her. Anyhow, she doesnât pretend she has vision to contribute, so there, Manmohan Singh has to fall upon his own devices. The trouble is because Sonia does not understand a thing â yes, it boils down to that â she is hostage to every idea that has a vote potential, or rather, every idea that is sold as such, while she may hook to the idea, the agenda of the seller usually escapes her notice.
One does not know how good are her aides in detecting a good from a rotten idea, not very good it would seem from the record so far, but what it does is every bad idea that clears 10 Janpath inevitably chokes up the government, obstructs any vision that the PM may have. So while Sonia Gandhi may be entirely well intentioned towards Manmohan Singh, the fact that she remains a foreigner to Indian politics and governance after all these years, decades, actually hurts the PMâs chances to do any good.
The second factor or opposition is Manmohan Singhâs cabinet. While it is all very well for PMO aides to whisper the PMâs get tough attitude to the media â why do you have to whisper it, though? â the reality is the cabinet is split. To talk power talk, the split is not ideological or about higher things, and the split is worst among the Congress highbinders in the cabinet. If the buzz is to be believed, Arjun is rooting for almost anybody to replace Manmohan, and if Pranab stands a chance, then Pranab it is. Naturally, with support coming from unexpected quarters, Pranab then preens as the PM-to-be.
See how the game plays out, it is going to be the half-term, when public opinion classically turns against the government. Arjun Singhâs revolt against Manmohan has become open, he wonât give up unless he is thrown out of the government, and nobody seems to be in any hurry to do it. Indeed, on the very weekend that the PM was letting out his get-tough attitude, there was a very strong buzz that he was going. So it is hard to say what will happen, whether he will last with his new reformist zeal, or it is back to the old shuffling, or we get a schmuck in his place. It is anybodyâs guess.
The third opposition comes from the Left, especially the central leadership of the CPI-M, whose faces are Prakash Karat (note, his pictures are always smiling), his wife, Brinda, and the neo-Mandalite, Sitaram Yechury. When Manmohanâs aides gave the rationale for reforms, they pointed to the CPI-M governments in West Bengal and Kerala which would need them to run solvent, modern and development-oriented administrations. True, but whatâs good for West Bengal and Kerala is not good for the rest of the country, not for the CPI-M central leadership, because the party is not in power there.
This is simplicity itself. In West Bengal and Kerala, the state party units have gone beyond politics to power economics, because they are in power. But Karat & Co operate in a region/ situation of power deprivation, they want power in North India and elsewhere where they are zero. So it is a return to base politics, Mandal II, communalization of foreign policy to attract minority votes, obstructive trade unionism, and putting roadblocks against reforms. In this politicking, the anti-Manmohan Singh group in the Congress is a party, and they have a common agenda of ousting him. If Manmohan Singh subjugates himself, that is fine by the Left, the Congress section wants him out at any cost.
So this is how the road looks ahead for Manmohan Singh. In these two years, the PM has underperformed, he gave himself six out of ten in the first year and refrained from any self-assessment in the second, we would go out and give him four upon ten, just pass marks. Sonia Gandhi is only interested in survival, Arjun Singh & Co are on overdrive to oust Manmohan Singh, the Left wants to bind him to its backwardness to advance its own power project. And the BJP, even if it has no ill feeling against Manmohan Singh, cannot be expected to openly back his policies or indeed his person. Why should it?
So what should Manmohan Singh do? Since he is a single-term PM, and he has said so, and because Sonia Gandhi cannot think beyond the here and now, this is Manmohan Singhâs last opportunity to prove himself. If he goes, pushed out for his great and grand vision for India, that is still worth than remaining a mousy PM for five years. And there lies a secret. The more statesmanlike, visionary risks he takes, the bolder he strikes against his detractors, being the real tough guy than the present paper tiger, who whispers via aides to the media, he may yet surprise himself.
But do we hope?
Not anymore.
[right][snapback]52297[/snapback][/right]
<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Can you add the link to the source please?
Thanks
--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/sad.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='sad.gif' /><!--endemo--> Boom or bustThe PM has underperformed. What chance has he now?
6 June 2006: Letâs for a moment think for the prime minister, although we no longer set much store by Manmohan Singh, nor expect terrific delivery in the remaining three years of his term. Yesterday, his aides put out that the PM was very upset with the slack in reforms, and one consequence of it is a hike in petrol and diesel prices, despite the Leftâs opposition. How much chance does Manmohan have in whatâs left of his primeministership?
The PM has four oppositions or factors to deal with, the opposition to him is rather mixed, the only formal opposition, the BJP-NDA, does not really oppose him but opposes the Congress president, Sonia Gandhi, and to the extent that Manmohan Singh faces flak by association, there is no remedy. On a personal level, the BJP is not his real opposition, although it is fair to say the BJP is no opposition at all.
Sonia is a factor more than an opposition, a big factor, a key factor, whatever. The disadvantage is she knows little about politics and next to nothing about governance, both are proven by how the UPA lurches from one crisis to another, even as the anti-reservation issue simmered, the office-of-profit controversy broke loose. >From what appears, the Congress president does not think long term of Congress interests, she does not know better, if she had, she would never have permitted Arjun Singh to fool with OBC quotas, OBCs never having supported the party and never likely to.
Unable and unwilling to think long term, Sonia counts her blessings that the UPA government survives, but day-to-day survival needs kill the vision thing, so the PM cannot expect that from her. Anyhow, she doesnât pretend she has vision to contribute, so there, Manmohan Singh has to fall upon his own devices. The trouble is because Sonia does not understand a thing â yes, it boils down to that â she is hostage to every idea that has a vote potential, or rather, every idea that is sold as such, while she may hook to the idea, the agenda of the seller usually escapes her notice.
One does not know how good are her aides in detecting a good from a rotten idea, not very good it would seem from the record so far, but what it does is every bad idea that clears 10 Janpath inevitably chokes up the government, obstructs any vision that the PM may have. So while Sonia Gandhi may be entirely well intentioned towards Manmohan Singh, the fact that she remains a foreigner to Indian politics and governance after all these years, decades, actually hurts the PMâs chances to do any good.
The second factor or opposition is Manmohan Singhâs cabinet. While it is all very well for PMO aides to whisper the PMâs get tough attitude to the media â why do you have to whisper it, though? â the reality is the cabinet is split. To talk power talk, the split is not ideological or about higher things, and the split is worst among the Congress highbinders in the cabinet. If the buzz is to be believed, Arjun is rooting for almost anybody to replace Manmohan, and if Pranab stands a chance, then Pranab it is. Naturally, with support coming from unexpected quarters, Pranab then preens as the PM-to-be.
See how the game plays out, it is going to be the half-term, when public opinion classically turns against the government. Arjun Singhâs revolt against Manmohan has become open, he wonât give up unless he is thrown out of the government, and nobody seems to be in any hurry to do it. Indeed, on the very weekend that the PM was letting out his get-tough attitude, there was a very strong buzz that he was going. So it is hard to say what will happen, whether he will last with his new reformist zeal, or it is back to the old shuffling, or we get a schmuck in his place. It is anybodyâs guess.
The third opposition comes from the Left, especially the central leadership of the CPI-M, whose faces are Prakash Karat (note, his pictures are always smiling), his wife, Brinda, and the neo-Mandalite, Sitaram Yechury. When Manmohanâs aides gave the rationale for reforms, they pointed to the CPI-M governments in West Bengal and Kerala which would need them to run solvent, modern and development-oriented administrations. True, but whatâs good for West Bengal and Kerala is not good for the rest of the country, not for the CPI-M central leadership, because the party is not in power there.
This is simplicity itself. In West Bengal and Kerala, the state party units have gone beyond politics to power economics, because they are in power. But Karat & Co operate in a region/ situation of power deprivation, they want power in North India and elsewhere where they are zero. So it is a return to base politics, Mandal II, communalization of foreign policy to attract minority votes, obstructive trade unionism, and putting roadblocks against reforms. In this politicking, the anti-Manmohan Singh group in the Congress is a party, and they have a common agenda of ousting him. If Manmohan Singh subjugates himself, that is fine by the Left, the Congress section wants him out at any cost.
So this is how the road looks ahead for Manmohan Singh. In these two years, the PM has underperformed, he gave himself six out of ten in the first year and refrained from any self-assessment in the second, we would go out and give him four upon ten, just pass marks. Sonia Gandhi is only interested in survival, Arjun Singh & Co are on overdrive to oust Manmohan Singh, the Left wants to bind him to its backwardness to advance its own power project. And the BJP, even if it has no ill feeling against Manmohan Singh, cannot be expected to openly back his policies or indeed his person. Why should it?
So what should Manmohan Singh do? Since he is a single-term PM, and he has said so, and because Sonia Gandhi cannot think beyond the here and now, this is Manmohan Singhâs last opportunity to prove himself. If he goes, pushed out for his great and grand vision for India, that is still worth than remaining a mousy PM for five years. And there lies a secret. The more statesmanlike, visionary risks he takes, the bolder he strikes against his detractors, being the real tough guy than the present paper tiger, who whispers via aides to the media, he may yet surprise himself.
But do we hope?
Not anymore.
[right][snapback]52297[/snapback][/right]
<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Can you add the link to the source please?
Thanks