03-09-2004, 08:00 PM
<b>The Don Quixotes ( of American politics that is ) are aiming their lances at the wrong targets, and here is my take : </b>
By Ajay Hooda
Source: Always-On
China's IT exports have crossed a billion $s. The Chinese have an ambition to overtake India (seen as a minor bump, Indian IT services market share is still in low single digits, despite all the hype) & then the US ( the real Goliath ). As is already obvious thru Chinese moves in telecom, autos and in general every thing of any import ( military & space included) , the Chinese government actively uses it's clout to shift the advantage it currently sees US enjoying, to its domain and permanently. Encourages use of open software, critical manufacturing is via joint ventures and encourages creation of own standards where ever it emerges as a market having some say.
The ease with which the US won the Afghan conflict and & Iraq war, the few casualties it took, sent shock waves of vulnerability in the Chinese establishment . The Red Army is now considered a sitting duck to the vastly superior American technology . The Chinese reaction is a plan to modernize and possibiliy match America's prowess in a couple of decades. The Middle Kingdom's ways are always well thought out, secretive and effective. Being true Samurais of Geo-politics, the Chinese bide their time and show their sword at the last moment Making it a truly decisive for the participants.
Bush dared tell the Chinese counterpart when they last met to revalue the currency, was told more jobs at risk here and will destabilize the financial system in China causing greater havoc. Was advised to look for solutions else where. Hasn't talked on those lines ever since, nor has the war Hero Kerry dared confer the "Benedict Arnold Award" on the American CEOs who with their billion of $s invested there have given China the strategic clout to wave off a Bush now, and others in the foreseeable future. I for one can't see how any of the high powered think tanks loaded with PhDs and ex-Secretaries of State and other assorted fat brains can suggest a way out of this mess. May be they don't even think that US is in a strategic quagmire created by wrong perceptions and priorities, or with no real answers, have inadvertently developed ostrich like instincts. Three million manufacturing jobs have gone to China, more will follow, and there is no US reaction to speak off , let alone a legislation that India's moderate outsourcing success has attracted right away. Could be I am wrong.
In contrast the Government of India (GOI) cast as the villain in the "Great American Outsourcing Tragedy" has never had any real plans on any thing so big . We thrive in a self created chaos.... of corruption, lawlessness, a few striving educated with a strong instinct for self preservation. For over a decade India saw its cross the border military and strategic competitor record close to 10% growth rate, to our anemic 5% ( factor in a 2% population growth and the low low per capita income of $480) . The Chinese market for almost every thing is 5 to 10 times larger, giving it a competitive advantage that India can't match easily. The GOI or the assorted political lot here are to date silent on any counter plan, and still don't have a real clue to what is happening. It is more of the entrepreneurial drive and the fortunate convergence of technology and work-flow software that has made out sourcing possible, and as we missed the manufacturing bus, the educated unemployed millions here have taken to it...and at any terms no matter what it pays. This opportunity is not open to India only. Close to 3 billion people in India, China, Eastern Europe, Russia, where ever the educated but low paid reside ...are on line and available now to the highest bidder. Moreover the Chinese have a program to teach English , touted as India's reason for the early success. We got it as a legacy of the colonial rule as the Brits needed an army of clerks to govern the teeming humanity ( and profit from it) in a land , where the dialect changes every few miles and language a few hundred.
It is only the industry here that has spoken up and taken up the Chinese challenge to some extent . It is poll time here too, and mercifully the hot air blowing lasts just 2 months. All that the GOI has managed to do is spend quite a few million rupees ( better spent else where) and claim the 8% plus GDP growth glory for it self in a "India Shining" TV & radio blitz. How very politician like.
The reality is that Indian IT companies are aligned with US IT biggies ( IBM, Oracle, Microsoft) and many a states are a part of Microsoft's e-governance & educational programs. There is how ever is a healthy debate here on whether "Word" needs to be taught or a "Word Processing Software". Nothing wrong with that I guess, as US still discusses "Creation Vs. Darwin" as options. Ford & GM own 100% of their auto ventures here in contrast to China where they have JVs with state owned corporations and fakes on the markets. India's infant BPO outsourcing has already been taken over by global giants mostly US . The IT services industry is sure to follow next if one follows the hiring figures. Foreign Institutional Investors, again mostly US are the single biggest category of investors in Indian blue chips.
China's large IT services home market and (other competition) can only with India's low wages, from here or placing Indians in China centers along with the locals . The Indians have made a start , and so far so good.
In short we compete, co-operate, let market forces operate and don't have any enunciated global ambitions.
But the universe too emerged out a chaos, or some say is the result of a grander plan. I like to believe it was the former, but then it is still an open question that forces of chaos do find equilibrium. And US & India may well too... once the Chinese ambitions are perceived as threating ...by the media, politicains , the public ...as a the Indian out sourcing threat is now . Let's await the Samurai unleash his gleaming sword. Right now it is being tempered and polished in the back yard for the eventuality.
And let's not expect the politician to give up their short sightedness and inflamed publics to give up their right to burn the first available witch, real or imaginary.
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/03/07/opinion/...Ed%2fColumnists
The Secret of Our Sauce
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/arti...547548.cms
Bangalore is Coolie Valley, not Silicon
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/03/07/internat...sia/07INDI.html
India Takes Economic Spotlight, and Critics Are Unkind
By Ajay Hooda
Source: Always-On
China's IT exports have crossed a billion $s. The Chinese have an ambition to overtake India (seen as a minor bump, Indian IT services market share is still in low single digits, despite all the hype) & then the US ( the real Goliath ). As is already obvious thru Chinese moves in telecom, autos and in general every thing of any import ( military & space included) , the Chinese government actively uses it's clout to shift the advantage it currently sees US enjoying, to its domain and permanently. Encourages use of open software, critical manufacturing is via joint ventures and encourages creation of own standards where ever it emerges as a market having some say.
The ease with which the US won the Afghan conflict and & Iraq war, the few casualties it took, sent shock waves of vulnerability in the Chinese establishment . The Red Army is now considered a sitting duck to the vastly superior American technology . The Chinese reaction is a plan to modernize and possibiliy match America's prowess in a couple of decades. The Middle Kingdom's ways are always well thought out, secretive and effective. Being true Samurais of Geo-politics, the Chinese bide their time and show their sword at the last moment Making it a truly decisive for the participants.
Bush dared tell the Chinese counterpart when they last met to revalue the currency, was told more jobs at risk here and will destabilize the financial system in China causing greater havoc. Was advised to look for solutions else where. Hasn't talked on those lines ever since, nor has the war Hero Kerry dared confer the "Benedict Arnold Award" on the American CEOs who with their billion of $s invested there have given China the strategic clout to wave off a Bush now, and others in the foreseeable future. I for one can't see how any of the high powered think tanks loaded with PhDs and ex-Secretaries of State and other assorted fat brains can suggest a way out of this mess. May be they don't even think that US is in a strategic quagmire created by wrong perceptions and priorities, or with no real answers, have inadvertently developed ostrich like instincts. Three million manufacturing jobs have gone to China, more will follow, and there is no US reaction to speak off , let alone a legislation that India's moderate outsourcing success has attracted right away. Could be I am wrong.
In contrast the Government of India (GOI) cast as the villain in the "Great American Outsourcing Tragedy" has never had any real plans on any thing so big . We thrive in a self created chaos.... of corruption, lawlessness, a few striving educated with a strong instinct for self preservation. For over a decade India saw its cross the border military and strategic competitor record close to 10% growth rate, to our anemic 5% ( factor in a 2% population growth and the low low per capita income of $480) . The Chinese market for almost every thing is 5 to 10 times larger, giving it a competitive advantage that India can't match easily. The GOI or the assorted political lot here are to date silent on any counter plan, and still don't have a real clue to what is happening. It is more of the entrepreneurial drive and the fortunate convergence of technology and work-flow software that has made out sourcing possible, and as we missed the manufacturing bus, the educated unemployed millions here have taken to it...and at any terms no matter what it pays. This opportunity is not open to India only. Close to 3 billion people in India, China, Eastern Europe, Russia, where ever the educated but low paid reside ...are on line and available now to the highest bidder. Moreover the Chinese have a program to teach English , touted as India's reason for the early success. We got it as a legacy of the colonial rule as the Brits needed an army of clerks to govern the teeming humanity ( and profit from it) in a land , where the dialect changes every few miles and language a few hundred.
It is only the industry here that has spoken up and taken up the Chinese challenge to some extent . It is poll time here too, and mercifully the hot air blowing lasts just 2 months. All that the GOI has managed to do is spend quite a few million rupees ( better spent else where) and claim the 8% plus GDP growth glory for it self in a "India Shining" TV & radio blitz. How very politician like.
The reality is that Indian IT companies are aligned with US IT biggies ( IBM, Oracle, Microsoft) and many a states are a part of Microsoft's e-governance & educational programs. There is how ever is a healthy debate here on whether "Word" needs to be taught or a "Word Processing Software". Nothing wrong with that I guess, as US still discusses "Creation Vs. Darwin" as options. Ford & GM own 100% of their auto ventures here in contrast to China where they have JVs with state owned corporations and fakes on the markets. India's infant BPO outsourcing has already been taken over by global giants mostly US . The IT services industry is sure to follow next if one follows the hiring figures. Foreign Institutional Investors, again mostly US are the single biggest category of investors in Indian blue chips.
China's large IT services home market and (other competition) can only with India's low wages, from here or placing Indians in China centers along with the locals . The Indians have made a start , and so far so good.
In short we compete, co-operate, let market forces operate and don't have any enunciated global ambitions.
But the universe too emerged out a chaos, or some say is the result of a grander plan. I like to believe it was the former, but then it is still an open question that forces of chaos do find equilibrium. And US & India may well too... once the Chinese ambitions are perceived as threating ...by the media, politicains , the public ...as a the Indian out sourcing threat is now . Let's await the Samurai unleash his gleaming sword. Right now it is being tempered and polished in the back yard for the eventuality.
And let's not expect the politician to give up their short sightedness and inflamed publics to give up their right to burn the first available witch, real or imaginary.
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/03/07/opinion/...Ed%2fColumnists
The Secret of Our Sauce
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/arti...547548.cms
Bangalore is Coolie Valley, not Silicon
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/03/07/internat...sia/07INDI.html
India Takes Economic Spotlight, and Critics Are Unkind