01-26-2007, 02:37 AM
<!--QuoteBegin-ramana+Jan 25 2007, 08:58 AM-->QUOTE(ramana @ Jan 25 2007, 08:58 AM)<!--QuoteEBegin-->The NDA basically lost in 2004 due to the rout of TDP in AP. A major chunk of LS seats were lost. Has ayone done a bottoms up review of TDP performance as to why they lost and what went into choosing the candidates who were put up for the elections and were there any extraneous reasons?
[right][snapback]63533[/snapback][/right]
<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I take assembly election results to analyze. LS seats are pretty much reflection of Assembly results in AP.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_Assembl..._in_India,_2004
TDP = 37.59% (43.87% in 1999)
INC = 38.56% (40.61% in 1999)
TRS = 6.68%
BJP = 2.63% (3.67% in 1999)
1. As you can see TRS is big spolier and major chunk of 6.68% people would have voted for TDP earlier.
2. Y.S. Rajasekhar Reddy did Pada Yatra across (Walking across many AP villages) and Nara Chandrababu Naidu couldn't match with that (Remeber attack on him by Naxals). YS got good impression from people from the Pada Yatra (It was sort of personal make-over from Bombula Reddy to CM material)
3. Congress promises (Free electricity for example).
4. Naidu failed to concentrate on integrated development but focused on IT development in Hyderabad.
5. TDP had to rely on same old MLAs and couldn't put fresh blood. Rebel groups went to Congress or spoiled the sitting MLA chances.
To various degrees above 5 are the reasons TDP lost. It is also important to note YS won the LS seats for Congress and not Sonia as English-media SLIME would like people to believe that Sonia did it.
Now coming to going forward in AP:
1. TRS is becoming insignificant. Votes are coming to TDP. But, big BUT, Congress may spoil this because before elections they may bring the Telengana boogieman. They want to use that card in the next election too. Telegana people need to see through the dirty politics of Congress and TRS to vote against them.
2. Chandra Babu has leg up this time for personal make over. He can do a lot to connect to people than last time.
3. People got sick of Congress promises anyway. They got enough dose when they introduced free electricity for farmers and later canceled it. Next time their promises won't cut through people.
4. People are realizing what Naidu did is trickling to other areas now. To give you an idea, land I own in Nellore dist. has gone from 2.5 lakhs per acre in 2004 to 15 lakhs.
Naidu should now focus on promising people integrated development across AP. This will have major impact in re-electing TDP.
5. Establishment is no longer problem for TDP. They should focus on injecting fresh blood and bring back rebels.
Now coming to bad aspects:
Remember YS is still Bombula Reddy and also remember as soon as Congress came to power what they did - Killed Paritala Ravi. If next time they sense they are loosing in elections, they becomes more desperate to use violence as weapon to win votes. Except Chittoor, this will be big issue in rest of the Rayalaseema. I'm not clear if TDP has increased its muscle in those districts to neutralize the violence-ridden ways of the Congress.
[right][snapback]63533[/snapback][/right]
<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I take assembly election results to analyze. LS seats are pretty much reflection of Assembly results in AP.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_Assembl..._in_India,_2004
TDP = 37.59% (43.87% in 1999)
INC = 38.56% (40.61% in 1999)
TRS = 6.68%
BJP = 2.63% (3.67% in 1999)
1. As you can see TRS is big spolier and major chunk of 6.68% people would have voted for TDP earlier.
2. Y.S. Rajasekhar Reddy did Pada Yatra across (Walking across many AP villages) and Nara Chandrababu Naidu couldn't match with that (Remeber attack on him by Naxals). YS got good impression from people from the Pada Yatra (It was sort of personal make-over from Bombula Reddy to CM material)
3. Congress promises (Free electricity for example).
4. Naidu failed to concentrate on integrated development but focused on IT development in Hyderabad.
5. TDP had to rely on same old MLAs and couldn't put fresh blood. Rebel groups went to Congress or spoiled the sitting MLA chances.
To various degrees above 5 are the reasons TDP lost. It is also important to note YS won the LS seats for Congress and not Sonia as English-media SLIME would like people to believe that Sonia did it.
Now coming to going forward in AP:
1. TRS is becoming insignificant. Votes are coming to TDP. But, big BUT, Congress may spoil this because before elections they may bring the Telengana boogieman. They want to use that card in the next election too. Telegana people need to see through the dirty politics of Congress and TRS to vote against them.
2. Chandra Babu has leg up this time for personal make over. He can do a lot to connect to people than last time.
3. People got sick of Congress promises anyway. They got enough dose when they introduced free electricity for farmers and later canceled it. Next time their promises won't cut through people.
4. People are realizing what Naidu did is trickling to other areas now. To give you an idea, land I own in Nellore dist. has gone from 2.5 lakhs per acre in 2004 to 15 lakhs.
Naidu should now focus on promising people integrated development across AP. This will have major impact in re-electing TDP.
5. Establishment is no longer problem for TDP. They should focus on injecting fresh blood and bring back rebels.
Now coming to bad aspects:
Remember YS is still Bombula Reddy and also remember as soon as Congress came to power what they did - Killed Paritala Ravi. If next time they sense they are loosing in elections, they becomes more desperate to use violence as weapon to win votes. Except Chittoor, this will be big issue in rest of the Rayalaseema. I'm not clear if TDP has increased its muscle in those districts to neutralize the violence-ridden ways of the Congress.