06-04-2007, 06:08 AM
Incredible or irretrievable India?
Swapan Dasgupta
It may well be a case of crying "Wolf" prematurely but events over the past fortnight prompt the conclusion that the curtain is coming down rapidly on the Incredible India story.
Whichever way you look at it, the trends are ominous. In Rajasthan, the Gujjars are on the rampage demanding a more expedient reservation policy. The Vasundhara Raje Government is paying the price of stoking unreal expectations. In Punjab, the politics-induced sectarian clash between the Dera Sachcha Sauda and the Akal Takht has aroused fears of a revival of extremism. In Gujarat, there has been a fierce reaction by the Koli community to the rape and murder of two women. The incident has sullied the otherwise impressive track record of Narendra Modi and could influence the Assembly elections later this year. In Assam, the ULFA - emboldened by a compromised State Government-has turned its guns again on migrant Biharis.
In Chhattisgarh, the Maoists are back to massacring policemen. And in West Bengal, continuing violence in Nandigram and Singur has put the brakes on Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee's reformist zeal.
Maybe, we shouldn't be alarmed. The vastness of India makes it possible for one half of the country to sleep in peace while the other half suffers nightmares. Turbulence and prosperity can well go hand in hand without upsetting the overall equilibrium. Why then should recent events prompt a sense of foreboding?
The anxiety stems from political portents. Last month's election results from Uttar Pradesh exposed the rot that is rapidly destroying the two national parties. It's bad enough for the Congress and BJP to perform as badly as they did. What is alarming is their reaction to defeat. The Congress, it would seem, has learnt absolutely nothing and is devoting all its attention to the ways and means of restoring the honour of the Crown Prince. The BJP, on its part, has spent the past fortnight evolving strategies that deflect attention from the colossal ineptitude of its leadership. The more the party falters, the more the ruling faction spends time scheming against imaginary enemies within.
The cumulative effect of this durbari politics - so reminiscent of declining empires - is certain to be felt in the General Election. As things stand, it is more than likely that neither the Congress nor the BJP (unless they miraculously enter into a post-election arrangement) will be in a position to be the decisive factor in Government formation at the Centre. The initiative is likely to pass into the hands of the Communists and sectional players such as the DMK and BSP. In the past decade, economic growth had been relatively insulated from politics. This cannot be guaranteed if the national parties become marginal and bit players start pulling in different directions. If the manner in which India's Sri Lanka policy is being held hostage to the DMK is any indication, even our foreign policy may become inchoate and subject to rival bidding.
In three years the UPA has triggered two undesirable shifts. First, in reopening the reservations issue to consolidate its minority vote, the Government has unleashed aspirations which can only be met through savage social disruption. The Gujjar disturbances in Rajasthan may be a portent of things to come. Second, by unleashing a wave of profligate and non-productive welfare schemes, the Government has diverted resources away from infrastructure - the building blocks of the future. At the same time, it has put economic populism back on the agenda. It now seems certain that a future coalition will manufacture yet more welfare schemes that will end up imposing an unacceptable burden on the productive sectors of the economy. The explosive blend of adventurism and instability could well nullify all the gains India has made in the past 15 years.
There are already early signs of a waning confidence in India's future. It is worth considering why the US is so anxious to get the nuclear deal over and done with before the autumn. Is it concerned about who will control India's nuclear assets in the future?
Swapan Dasgupta
It may well be a case of crying "Wolf" prematurely but events over the past fortnight prompt the conclusion that the curtain is coming down rapidly on the Incredible India story.
Whichever way you look at it, the trends are ominous. In Rajasthan, the Gujjars are on the rampage demanding a more expedient reservation policy. The Vasundhara Raje Government is paying the price of stoking unreal expectations. In Punjab, the politics-induced sectarian clash between the Dera Sachcha Sauda and the Akal Takht has aroused fears of a revival of extremism. In Gujarat, there has been a fierce reaction by the Koli community to the rape and murder of two women. The incident has sullied the otherwise impressive track record of Narendra Modi and could influence the Assembly elections later this year. In Assam, the ULFA - emboldened by a compromised State Government-has turned its guns again on migrant Biharis.
In Chhattisgarh, the Maoists are back to massacring policemen. And in West Bengal, continuing violence in Nandigram and Singur has put the brakes on Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee's reformist zeal.
Maybe, we shouldn't be alarmed. The vastness of India makes it possible for one half of the country to sleep in peace while the other half suffers nightmares. Turbulence and prosperity can well go hand in hand without upsetting the overall equilibrium. Why then should recent events prompt a sense of foreboding?
The anxiety stems from political portents. Last month's election results from Uttar Pradesh exposed the rot that is rapidly destroying the two national parties. It's bad enough for the Congress and BJP to perform as badly as they did. What is alarming is their reaction to defeat. The Congress, it would seem, has learnt absolutely nothing and is devoting all its attention to the ways and means of restoring the honour of the Crown Prince. The BJP, on its part, has spent the past fortnight evolving strategies that deflect attention from the colossal ineptitude of its leadership. The more the party falters, the more the ruling faction spends time scheming against imaginary enemies within.
The cumulative effect of this durbari politics - so reminiscent of declining empires - is certain to be felt in the General Election. As things stand, it is more than likely that neither the Congress nor the BJP (unless they miraculously enter into a post-election arrangement) will be in a position to be the decisive factor in Government formation at the Centre. The initiative is likely to pass into the hands of the Communists and sectional players such as the DMK and BSP. In the past decade, economic growth had been relatively insulated from politics. This cannot be guaranteed if the national parties become marginal and bit players start pulling in different directions. If the manner in which India's Sri Lanka policy is being held hostage to the DMK is any indication, even our foreign policy may become inchoate and subject to rival bidding.
In three years the UPA has triggered two undesirable shifts. First, in reopening the reservations issue to consolidate its minority vote, the Government has unleashed aspirations which can only be met through savage social disruption. The Gujjar disturbances in Rajasthan may be a portent of things to come. Second, by unleashing a wave of profligate and non-productive welfare schemes, the Government has diverted resources away from infrastructure - the building blocks of the future. At the same time, it has put economic populism back on the agenda. It now seems certain that a future coalition will manufacture yet more welfare schemes that will end up imposing an unacceptable burden on the productive sectors of the economy. The explosive blend of adventurism and instability could well nullify all the gains India has made in the past 15 years.
There are already early signs of a waning confidence in India's future. It is worth considering why the US is so anxious to get the nuclear deal over and done with before the autumn. Is it concerned about who will control India's nuclear assets in the future?