06-21-2007, 10:19 PM
Pakistan: Some likely scenarios By Colonel Dr Anil Athale (retd)
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->My brief trip to Pakistan validated the following constants about the nation:
The disaffection among the elite with military rule.
Intense dislike of America, both amongst the elite as well as the masses.
Religious parties fear marginalisation in the 2007 election.
A sense of disillusionment over the India-Pakistan peace process, which was widely expected in Pakistan to deliver Kashmir to Pakistan.
A deep sense of inferiority at the individual and societal level vis a vis India.
Unemployed, young and fanatical youth forming over 60% of the population.
The army's fear of losing its grip over its men and national power.
Confidence in a successful deterrent strategy based on the concept of 'Mad Mullahs and stray General' that was shown to be effective during Kargil 1999 and Operation Parakram 2002.
Constant sense of 'victimisation' as Pakistanis and Muslims due to the media that focuses on the worldwide woes of the Muslim Ummah.
Population growth (the average per woman fertility in Pakistan is 5.4 children), with 60 percent of the population under 25. This, coupled with lack industrialisation and curbs in the Gulf countries on emigration, will intensify unrest among the young unemployed.
Perhaps the most important constant in Pakistan is the domination of that country's Punjab region<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->My brief trip to Pakistan validated the following constants about the nation:
The disaffection among the elite with military rule.
Intense dislike of America, both amongst the elite as well as the masses.
Religious parties fear marginalisation in the 2007 election.
A sense of disillusionment over the India-Pakistan peace process, which was widely expected in Pakistan to deliver Kashmir to Pakistan.
A deep sense of inferiority at the individual and societal level vis a vis India.
Unemployed, young and fanatical youth forming over 60% of the population.
The army's fear of losing its grip over its men and national power.
Confidence in a successful deterrent strategy based on the concept of 'Mad Mullahs and stray General' that was shown to be effective during Kargil 1999 and Operation Parakram 2002.
Constant sense of 'victimisation' as Pakistanis and Muslims due to the media that focuses on the worldwide woes of the Muslim Ummah.
Population growth (the average per woman fertility in Pakistan is 5.4 children), with 60 percent of the population under 25. This, coupled with lack industrialisation and curbs in the Gulf countries on emigration, will intensify unrest among the young unemployed.
Perhaps the most important constant in Pakistan is the domination of that country's Punjab region<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->