2009 Poll Prospects And Alignments

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<!--QuoteBegin-ramana+Jul 25 2007, 01:38 PM-->QUOTE(ramana @ Jul 25 2007, 01:38 PM)<!--QuoteEBegin-->From Deccan Chronicle, 26 july 2007

<!--QuoteBegin--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->‘TD is No.1 T-party’
...
If the survey is to be believed, <b>a TD-CPI-CPM combination would be deadly and would be able to trounce the Congress in Telangana. “Our agitations over people’s issues have definitely improved our support in the Telangana districts,”</b> said TD leader Devender Goud. “The TD stirs on bidi packets and Babli construction have paid off.” <b>But the scenario is rather bleak in the Andhra region, where the TD has still not gained lost ground.</b>

Only in the East and West Godavari districts does it come anywhere near the Congress in terms of people’s support. <b>But the bad news is from Krishna, Guntur, Prakasam, Nellore, Chittoor districts, which are still stoutly behind the Congress with a vote share of 75 per cent.</b>  The TD could get only about 25 per cent vote share in Guntur and Prakasam. Even Chittor, which is TD chief N. Chandrababu Naidu’s home district, is under the grip of the Congress.

<b>In Rayalaseema, the picture is mixed.</b> It is the TD all the way in Anantapur. At the same time in Kadapa, the home district of Chief Minister Y.S. Rajasekhar Reddy, TD is limited to 15 per cent leaving 85 per cent to the Congress. Kurnool too is dominated by the Congress, but the TD has slightly improved since the last polls. But in Chittor, it is as disastrous as it was in 2004 for the TD.

<b>In North Coastal Andhra region the situation is still in favour of Congress party except in Visakhapatnam district, where large number of voters are moving towards the TD.</b> A team of researchers belonging to two universities in Rayalaseema were engaged in the survey which was held between June 10 and July 5 across the state. TD sources said that more than 18,000 samples from 210 assembly constituencies were collected and analysed.

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There is a Arun Nehru article in Pioneer and PC Alexander op-ed in Deccan Chronicle, on same subject. So it is not too early to discuss the issues and prospects. <!--emo&--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smile.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='smile.gif' /><!--endemo-->
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TD lost Telangana in 2004 due to obviously TRS and Congress con job on Telangana. Now all that lost ground is being regained by TDP.

In the rest of Andhra Pradesh, there was no idealogical shift but bad karma of anti-incumbency, bad seat allocations, and most importantly rebels. In the next
elections Congress is fraught with same negatives. TDP has much better wiggle room
for seat allocations and poll alliances. Congress also lost center of gravity around YS to control the candidates which he did effectively in 2004. In the AP, Congress is exactly like TDP in 2004 - ready to lose

Ananthapur and Chittoor dist will come back to TDP in next elections. Cuddapah is obviously YS's fort so no chance there.

Overall, TDP will win the next elections. Unfortunately, TDP may join hands with Commies to win back Telangana.