08-06-2007, 03:15 AM
Congress, BSP inching closer Arun Nehru
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->My initial assessment is that in the next Lok Sabha election, the Congress can gain 40 to 45 seats in Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka and Kerala. It will lose 35 to 40 seats in Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Jharkhand, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. I don't see any gains for the Congress in Uttar Pradesh, where the SP and the BSP will dominate; Bihar, where the JD(U) and the BJP will maintain the lead; Maharashtra, where the NCP, the BJP and the Shiv Sena will dominate; and, Gujarat, where the BJP, thanks to Mr Narendra Modi's image, will perform well. The UPA may well lose the Left to the UNPA - I see the Left sharply declining from 65 seats to 45 seats in West Bengal and Kerala. All this makes the BSP quite relevant for the future as it will win about 40 seats, if not more, in the next general election.
The Congress needs to make political inclusions in the Cabinet and I think it would be a good move for Mr Rahul Gandhi to join the Government. He may well surprise himself and many others by his performance, and this will be necessary for his image as a serious campaigner for the next general election.
The UNPA will offer a serious challenge if it wins Tamil Nadu, thanks to the ADMK, and Andhra Pradesh, because of the Telugu Desam Party. In both States the anti-incumbency issue favours a change. Tamil Nadu will be a keen battle between Ms J Jayalalithaa of the ADMK and the many factions of the DMK. I think the political odds are in favour of the ADMK leader, and it is unfortunate that the Centre and the State Government are indulging in petty vendettas.
The situation in Andhra Pradesh is alarming. First harsh words were used by Chief Minister YSR Chandrasekhara Reddy against Mr Chandrababu Naidu, and then the police fired on protesters at Khammam, resulting in high casualties. I would be surprised if the Congress wins even a few seats in the next election - Andhra Pradesh could be the single largest disaster for the party.
The NDA will not be a serious contender for power - it will lose 'allies' to the UNPA and the BJP will lose seats in Rajasthan, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. The BJP's gains in Delhi, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and Jharkhand will be marginal compared to the losses.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->My initial assessment is that in the next Lok Sabha election, the Congress can gain 40 to 45 seats in Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka and Kerala. It will lose 35 to 40 seats in Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Jharkhand, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. I don't see any gains for the Congress in Uttar Pradesh, where the SP and the BSP will dominate; Bihar, where the JD(U) and the BJP will maintain the lead; Maharashtra, where the NCP, the BJP and the Shiv Sena will dominate; and, Gujarat, where the BJP, thanks to Mr Narendra Modi's image, will perform well. The UPA may well lose the Left to the UNPA - I see the Left sharply declining from 65 seats to 45 seats in West Bengal and Kerala. All this makes the BSP quite relevant for the future as it will win about 40 seats, if not more, in the next general election.
The Congress needs to make political inclusions in the Cabinet and I think it would be a good move for Mr Rahul Gandhi to join the Government. He may well surprise himself and many others by his performance, and this will be necessary for his image as a serious campaigner for the next general election.
The UNPA will offer a serious challenge if it wins Tamil Nadu, thanks to the ADMK, and Andhra Pradesh, because of the Telugu Desam Party. In both States the anti-incumbency issue favours a change. Tamil Nadu will be a keen battle between Ms J Jayalalithaa of the ADMK and the many factions of the DMK. I think the political odds are in favour of the ADMK leader, and it is unfortunate that the Centre and the State Government are indulging in petty vendettas.
The situation in Andhra Pradesh is alarming. First harsh words were used by Chief Minister YSR Chandrasekhara Reddy against Mr Chandrababu Naidu, and then the police fired on protesters at Khammam, resulting in high casualties. I would be surprised if the Congress wins even a few seats in the next election - Andhra Pradesh could be the single largest disaster for the party.
The NDA will not be a serious contender for power - it will lose 'allies' to the UNPA and the BJP will lose seats in Rajasthan, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. The BJP's gains in Delhi, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and Jharkhand will be marginal compared to the losses.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->