08-21-2007, 02:00 AM
Acharya, You asked why is the Left so against the deal?
Pioneer, 21 Aug., 2007
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->BJP mustn't let Govt fall
The party must realise that it's least prepared for a mid-term poll, says Prafull Goradia
<b>The BJP has erred in opposing so vociferously the India-US civil nuclear deal. In public perception, its opposition is largely political. This is not the time to let the UPA Government fall.</b> The BJP needs a year or two to get its manifesto made sharp and clear before facing the national electorate. The Sangh Parivar would also need to arrive at a consensus on the prime ministerial candidate. Moreover, the State elections in Gujarat, Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh should precede the Lok Sabha election and not follow them.
<b>Why is the CPI(M) playing its cards the way it is?</b> There has always been a method in its madness - realpolitik and not ideological. <b>A Kolkata grapevine, located not far from the party headquarters, reported in late June that the nuclear agreement will not go through.</b>
<b>The CPI(M) is sensitive to Muslim sentiments. All these decades, the Bengali-speaking Muslims have stood four square behind the party. The faithful following has been soured across rural West Bengal by the Nandigram clash. Farmers and peasants have felt let down. They can no longer rely on the CPI(M) to protect their land. Signing anything with the US or even seen to be supporting an India-US deal could be playing straight into the hands of Jamiat-e-Ulema. Although the voters are over a fourth of West Bengal's electoral rolls, for the Left they comprise a third of its supporters.</b>
Kerala, which is the second bastion of the CPI(M), also poses a serious problem. Christians are upset with the Left Front Government for interfering in their schools and colleges. The community comprises over 20 per cent of the population and are more resourceful than their numbers. The Syrian Christians are wealthy and the network of churches adds up to a great deal of influence.
<b>The acquittal of Maulana Abdul Nasser Madani by the court at Coimbatore has made him a hero. Unexpectedly, he has resolved to abandon his extremism, sound reasonable and unite Muslims with Dalits. If he succeeds, he would have quite a sizable vote-bank. Why, therefore, annoy Muslims who support the CPI(M) either directly or through other parties?</b> The least that the Left can do is to be seen to sabotage an India-US deal.
While there is need to avert the threats to the CPI(M) in Kerala and West Bengal, there are opportunities elsewhere. <b>Assam, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh offer potential</b>. Bihar is ruled by a coalition which has a BJP Deputy Chief Minister. Whereas Uttar Pradesh has a Government which is seen as having come to power largely on Hindu support. The Samajwadi Party of Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav continues to enjoy Muslim support but, when out of power, followers are liable to get dispersed. The Left can aspire for some pickings. In any case, the CPI(M) must appear pro-Muslim if it expects to align with the SP.
<b>BSP leader Mayawati echoed this view last week when she said that the 123 Agreement with the US could hurt the sentiments of the minority community, which is bitterly opposed to American policy in Iraq and elsewhere</b>. The BSP has been candid while the Left Front has been cagey. But the syndrome is the same.
The fortunes of both the Congress and the BJP have declined. The emerging vacuum is being filled by the rest of the parties who comprise 48 percent or 260 seats, of the current Lok Sabha. Since the 2004 general election, the two national parties have weakened. <b>The Congress is caught in a dilemma. </b>On the one hand, the Prime Minister has proclaimed his preference as 'Muslims First', of favouring development of Muslim majority districts, of modernising madarsas et al. On the other hand, he is widely perceived as an accomplice of the US. He lost sleep over the families of Islamists involved in the recent attack on Glasgow airport. Earlier, he had warmly hosted the visit of US President George W Bush to Delhi.
The BJP has got caught in a self-contradiction. Its cadre is steeped in Hindutva for decades. Yet, it abandoned even the expression at the chintan baithak at Goa in 2004. Earlier it had lost power in the general election despite offering to employ two lakh Urdu teachers. Committed Hindus, its only permanent supporters, find the party's silence on anti-Hindu issues and incidents, as deafening. A Hindu party in search of Muslim votes!
<b>If the Left Front were to withdraw support to the UPA Government, the obvious consequence appears to be a mid-term poll.</b> Its early advent would be inopportune for the BJP. <b>On current indications, it would lose seats which, in turn, could bring a 'Third Front' to power. Whether the Prime Minister would be Mr Prakash Karat, Ms Mayawati or Mr Lalu Prasad Yadav or someone else is anybody's guess.</b> But it would be neither Mr Rajnath Singh nor Mr Manmohan Singh. A coalition without a national party leading it would also be undesirable.
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No comments.
Pioneer, 21 Aug., 2007
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->BJP mustn't let Govt fall
The party must realise that it's least prepared for a mid-term poll, says Prafull Goradia
<b>The BJP has erred in opposing so vociferously the India-US civil nuclear deal. In public perception, its opposition is largely political. This is not the time to let the UPA Government fall.</b> The BJP needs a year or two to get its manifesto made sharp and clear before facing the national electorate. The Sangh Parivar would also need to arrive at a consensus on the prime ministerial candidate. Moreover, the State elections in Gujarat, Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh should precede the Lok Sabha election and not follow them.
<b>Why is the CPI(M) playing its cards the way it is?</b> There has always been a method in its madness - realpolitik and not ideological. <b>A Kolkata grapevine, located not far from the party headquarters, reported in late June that the nuclear agreement will not go through.</b>
<b>The CPI(M) is sensitive to Muslim sentiments. All these decades, the Bengali-speaking Muslims have stood four square behind the party. The faithful following has been soured across rural West Bengal by the Nandigram clash. Farmers and peasants have felt let down. They can no longer rely on the CPI(M) to protect their land. Signing anything with the US or even seen to be supporting an India-US deal could be playing straight into the hands of Jamiat-e-Ulema. Although the voters are over a fourth of West Bengal's electoral rolls, for the Left they comprise a third of its supporters.</b>
Kerala, which is the second bastion of the CPI(M), also poses a serious problem. Christians are upset with the Left Front Government for interfering in their schools and colleges. The community comprises over 20 per cent of the population and are more resourceful than their numbers. The Syrian Christians are wealthy and the network of churches adds up to a great deal of influence.
<b>The acquittal of Maulana Abdul Nasser Madani by the court at Coimbatore has made him a hero. Unexpectedly, he has resolved to abandon his extremism, sound reasonable and unite Muslims with Dalits. If he succeeds, he would have quite a sizable vote-bank. Why, therefore, annoy Muslims who support the CPI(M) either directly or through other parties?</b> The least that the Left can do is to be seen to sabotage an India-US deal.
While there is need to avert the threats to the CPI(M) in Kerala and West Bengal, there are opportunities elsewhere. <b>Assam, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh offer potential</b>. Bihar is ruled by a coalition which has a BJP Deputy Chief Minister. Whereas Uttar Pradesh has a Government which is seen as having come to power largely on Hindu support. The Samajwadi Party of Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav continues to enjoy Muslim support but, when out of power, followers are liable to get dispersed. The Left can aspire for some pickings. In any case, the CPI(M) must appear pro-Muslim if it expects to align with the SP.
<b>BSP leader Mayawati echoed this view last week when she said that the 123 Agreement with the US could hurt the sentiments of the minority community, which is bitterly opposed to American policy in Iraq and elsewhere</b>. The BSP has been candid while the Left Front has been cagey. But the syndrome is the same.
The fortunes of both the Congress and the BJP have declined. The emerging vacuum is being filled by the rest of the parties who comprise 48 percent or 260 seats, of the current Lok Sabha. Since the 2004 general election, the two national parties have weakened. <b>The Congress is caught in a dilemma. </b>On the one hand, the Prime Minister has proclaimed his preference as 'Muslims First', of favouring development of Muslim majority districts, of modernising madarsas et al. On the other hand, he is widely perceived as an accomplice of the US. He lost sleep over the families of Islamists involved in the recent attack on Glasgow airport. Earlier, he had warmly hosted the visit of US President George W Bush to Delhi.
The BJP has got caught in a self-contradiction. Its cadre is steeped in Hindutva for decades. Yet, it abandoned even the expression at the chintan baithak at Goa in 2004. Earlier it had lost power in the general election despite offering to employ two lakh Urdu teachers. Committed Hindus, its only permanent supporters, find the party's silence on anti-Hindu issues and incidents, as deafening. A Hindu party in search of Muslim votes!
<b>If the Left Front were to withdraw support to the UPA Government, the obvious consequence appears to be a mid-term poll.</b> Its early advent would be inopportune for the BJP. <b>On current indications, it would lose seats which, in turn, could bring a 'Third Front' to power. Whether the Prime Minister would be Mr Prakash Karat, Ms Mayawati or Mr Lalu Prasad Yadav or someone else is anybody's guess.</b> But it would be neither Mr Rajnath Singh nor Mr Manmohan Singh. A coalition without a national party leading it would also be undesirable.
<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
No comments.