11-21-2007, 12:50 PM
The more I think about it, the more I believe that this is a master stroke by Yeddyurappa. If BJP has to form a government on its own in future, it must eliminate third front (JD-S) from Karnataka for ever. Unlike Mayavathi, CPI(M) or DMK, JD-S has no ideological strength of its own, i.e. it is not different from Congress. It became a powerful party in Karnataka because of the charisma of Ramakrishna Hegde and people of Karnataka did not have any alternative to Congress. Later Gowda family hijacked the party and made it their private asset. Now BJP has emerged as the third alternative in Karnataka politics and this created a situation where no single party can come to power in a triangular contest. So, in future, for Congress or BJP to form a government of its own, JD-S has to become irrelevent. What is the better way than to show it as a selfish party in front of the public?
Yeddyurappa behaved like a naive person in the game of JD-S, initially agreed to all demands of JD-S to form the government, waited for about a week to withdraw support when Kumaraswamy refused to transfer power, came back to Bangalore when JD-S promised support again. When Kumaraswamy realized that he was seen as a villain who betrayed the promise, he came back convincing Governor of his unconditional support to BJP and paraded all MLAs in front of the President for support.
Yeddyurappa showed that he is not a naive person after swearing in ceremony and started asserting his decisions. He did not budge when unconditional supporters started putting conditions. It was obvious that either way it is going to harm JD-S. i.e., If he continues as CM, it will help BJP more than JD-S. If JD-S withdraws support there is enough data to show that that was done for very selfish reasons. It looks like it is JD-S non-family MLAs who are going to be pissed off. Facing re-election is going to be tough for them and BJP can target individual MLAs personally in their constituencies. Chances that they will desert JD-S is very high. If JD-S had any sense of strategic thinking, they should have supported BJP for six months and then withdrawn support after precipitating a crisis, especially religious or caste based. Current actions show that they are just bull headed.
Whether BJP can form the next government or not is going to be how effective it is in projecting JD-S as a selfish and greedy party of a family and attracting its voters to BJP. Yeddyurappa can claim that he did everything to avoid an election. If he just wanted to cling to power, he could have simply agreed to Gowda's demands. So the moral high ground for him is still there, but BJP needs to cash it out properly. I think JD-S is dead unless Congress gives it a new lease of life during election.
Yeddyurappa behaved like a naive person in the game of JD-S, initially agreed to all demands of JD-S to form the government, waited for about a week to withdraw support when Kumaraswamy refused to transfer power, came back to Bangalore when JD-S promised support again. When Kumaraswamy realized that he was seen as a villain who betrayed the promise, he came back convincing Governor of his unconditional support to BJP and paraded all MLAs in front of the President for support.
Yeddyurappa showed that he is not a naive person after swearing in ceremony and started asserting his decisions. He did not budge when unconditional supporters started putting conditions. It was obvious that either way it is going to harm JD-S. i.e., If he continues as CM, it will help BJP more than JD-S. If JD-S withdraws support there is enough data to show that that was done for very selfish reasons. It looks like it is JD-S non-family MLAs who are going to be pissed off. Facing re-election is going to be tough for them and BJP can target individual MLAs personally in their constituencies. Chances that they will desert JD-S is very high. If JD-S had any sense of strategic thinking, they should have supported BJP for six months and then withdrawn support after precipitating a crisis, especially religious or caste based. Current actions show that they are just bull headed.
Whether BJP can form the next government or not is going to be how effective it is in projecting JD-S as a selfish and greedy party of a family and attracting its voters to BJP. Yeddyurappa can claim that he did everything to avoid an election. If he just wanted to cling to power, he could have simply agreed to Gowda's demands. So the moral high ground for him is still there, but BJP needs to cash it out properly. I think JD-S is dead unless Congress gives it a new lease of life during election.