12-15-2007, 10:43 PM
<b>Modi versus chalta hai
Swapan Dasgupta</b>
The most interesting feature of Indian elections is that the logic of a verdict is understood and appreciated only in retrospect. Despite a multitude of pundits, pollsters and prophets insisting 'I-told-you-so', the fact is that no one can be certain of the outcome till the initial trends from the counting centres pour in.
The Gujarat Assembly election is likely to be no exception. Never mind what the media says about the 2002 election being a "wave", the fact is that the intensity of the popular mood was not appreciated even after the polling. I clearly recall a prominent Congress leader (now a Cabinet Minister) telling me that "our Government will be sworn in next week". Then he proceeded to explain why the Congress' "scientific" candidate selection process had undermined the communal polarisation of the riots. Even the BJP leaders didn't detect the popular upsurge that was to make Narendra Modi the Gujarati folk hero. A large number of dubious polls were circulated by a section of party leaders to show that the BJP would, at best, get a whisker thin majority. The phrase "Atalji is not very happy" was bandied about.
In many ways, this month's election was almost a carbon copy of the one held five years ago. Of course, there are differences: The NGOs are not that much in evidence, there is no overt Hindu-Muslim tension on the streets and Modi has no backers in the media. But the substantive part of the election chemistry seems intact.
Like 2002, Modi is drawing huge crowds. Initially the media went into denial about his star attraction suggesting that the attendance at his meetings was paltry. I met a reporter of a fiercely anti-Modi TV channel at a frenzied rally on the outskirts of Ahmedabad where the crowd was over 1.5 lakh. "This is a pocket borough", he said dismissively, "the crowds are only to be expected." Three days back, the channel switched tack, acknowledged that Modi was drawing frenzied crowds and then proceeded to proffer intriguing theories of how he was being packaged by professional PR men. I particularly liked the suggestion that even the movement of Modi's fingers during a speech was carefully rehearsed.
In 2002, the suggestion that Vajpayee will be unhappy at a Modi victory did the rounds of BJP circles. <b>This month, the RSS has been praised for its staid approach to Hindutva by pundits who earlier saw it as a replica of Hitler's stormtroopers. </b>There has been a contrived controversy over yet another Vajpayee letter and it is being put out that a Modi victory will be tantamount to a BJP defeat.
The theory is fascinating but the reality is a little more complex. There are divisions in the Sangh Parivar in Gujarat over Modi but the divide seems to be along horizontal rather than vertical lines. In other words, <b>while a section of the top leadership of a few RSS-linked organisations has chosen to either abstain from the polls or actively support the Congress, the foot soldiers are vocal cheerleaders for Modi.</b><i>{The next step should be to eliminate these top leaders even like the way shorabuddin would be better for hindutva. The foot soldiers should remove these top leaders from their leadership.}</i> The analogy given by a BJP leader of the saffron split in Gujarat being akin to the 1969 Congress split seems apt: A few top leaders went with the Syndicate but Indira Gandhi took the party rank-and-file. She also carried the voters.<i>{she made the people like brahmananda reddy etc. useless after her ascent. Modi should follow her footsteps in this case as well.}</i>
There is a final observation. Modi has built a formidable brand around himself. His administrative acumen, selflessness and oratory are undeniably part of the brand attribute. Yet, its cutting edge lies in the fact that Modi is perceived as the man who can take on a rotten establishment, whether in his party, in Delhi or in the media. Modi does not appeal to the chattering classes. That is what makes him formidable and appealing. It is the strength of that appeal that is being tested through the ballot box. <i>{God give Modi strength. This victory will be historic for India in the long run. This brand of hindutva has to move to every state. Loss will put the hindutva away from power for a long time.}</i>
The 2007 Gujarat election may result in a lot of wisdom in hindsight. Modi is not fighting Modi; he is pitting himself against a chalta hai culture.<i>{Very nicely put.}</i>
Swapan Dasgupta</b>
The most interesting feature of Indian elections is that the logic of a verdict is understood and appreciated only in retrospect. Despite a multitude of pundits, pollsters and prophets insisting 'I-told-you-so', the fact is that no one can be certain of the outcome till the initial trends from the counting centres pour in.
The Gujarat Assembly election is likely to be no exception. Never mind what the media says about the 2002 election being a "wave", the fact is that the intensity of the popular mood was not appreciated even after the polling. I clearly recall a prominent Congress leader (now a Cabinet Minister) telling me that "our Government will be sworn in next week". Then he proceeded to explain why the Congress' "scientific" candidate selection process had undermined the communal polarisation of the riots. Even the BJP leaders didn't detect the popular upsurge that was to make Narendra Modi the Gujarati folk hero. A large number of dubious polls were circulated by a section of party leaders to show that the BJP would, at best, get a whisker thin majority. The phrase "Atalji is not very happy" was bandied about.
In many ways, this month's election was almost a carbon copy of the one held five years ago. Of course, there are differences: The NGOs are not that much in evidence, there is no overt Hindu-Muslim tension on the streets and Modi has no backers in the media. But the substantive part of the election chemistry seems intact.
Like 2002, Modi is drawing huge crowds. Initially the media went into denial about his star attraction suggesting that the attendance at his meetings was paltry. I met a reporter of a fiercely anti-Modi TV channel at a frenzied rally on the outskirts of Ahmedabad where the crowd was over 1.5 lakh. "This is a pocket borough", he said dismissively, "the crowds are only to be expected." Three days back, the channel switched tack, acknowledged that Modi was drawing frenzied crowds and then proceeded to proffer intriguing theories of how he was being packaged by professional PR men. I particularly liked the suggestion that even the movement of Modi's fingers during a speech was carefully rehearsed.
In 2002, the suggestion that Vajpayee will be unhappy at a Modi victory did the rounds of BJP circles. <b>This month, the RSS has been praised for its staid approach to Hindutva by pundits who earlier saw it as a replica of Hitler's stormtroopers. </b>There has been a contrived controversy over yet another Vajpayee letter and it is being put out that a Modi victory will be tantamount to a BJP defeat.
The theory is fascinating but the reality is a little more complex. There are divisions in the Sangh Parivar in Gujarat over Modi but the divide seems to be along horizontal rather than vertical lines. In other words, <b>while a section of the top leadership of a few RSS-linked organisations has chosen to either abstain from the polls or actively support the Congress, the foot soldiers are vocal cheerleaders for Modi.</b><i>{The next step should be to eliminate these top leaders even like the way shorabuddin would be better for hindutva. The foot soldiers should remove these top leaders from their leadership.}</i> The analogy given by a BJP leader of the saffron split in Gujarat being akin to the 1969 Congress split seems apt: A few top leaders went with the Syndicate but Indira Gandhi took the party rank-and-file. She also carried the voters.<i>{she made the people like brahmananda reddy etc. useless after her ascent. Modi should follow her footsteps in this case as well.}</i>
There is a final observation. Modi has built a formidable brand around himself. His administrative acumen, selflessness and oratory are undeniably part of the brand attribute. Yet, its cutting edge lies in the fact that Modi is perceived as the man who can take on a rotten establishment, whether in his party, in Delhi or in the media. Modi does not appeal to the chattering classes. That is what makes him formidable and appealing. It is the strength of that appeal that is being tested through the ballot box. <i>{God give Modi strength. This victory will be historic for India in the long run. This brand of hindutva has to move to every state. Loss will put the hindutva away from power for a long time.}</i>
The 2007 Gujarat election may result in a lot of wisdom in hindsight. Modi is not fighting Modi; he is pitting himself against a chalta hai culture.<i>{Very nicely put.}</i>