02-26-2008, 12:24 AM
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Tough road ahead (Pioneer)
Rajeev Srinivasan
Barack Obama might be ahead of Hillary Clinton, but his path to White House will not be an easy one
There certainly is a buzz around Mr Barack Obama. His string of 11 straight victories over Ms Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries has startled both pundits and average voters. The extravagant comparisons to John Kennedy's fabled Camelot, the enthusiastic youngsters who mob him everywhere, the immense fund-raising he has managed -- all this suggests that Mr Obama's momentum is unstoppable.
There is a generation gap among voters: Those who remember Camelot and those who read about it later. The older generation is much more willing to accept Ms Clinton's record of experience and maturity. The young are swept away by the promise of change and the idealism that are the cornerstones of the Obama campaign.
So Mr Obama has the "Big Mo", momentum. It is indeed remarkable that a Black man is now offering a credible challenge for the US presidency. After all, the brutal racism of Jim Crow, the landmark Supreme Court decision Brown vs Board of Education, and Rosa Parks's refusal to yield a seat on a bus are all within living memory.
There certainly has been considerable progress in the ability of individual Blacks to rise to the top in the US. But it is questionable whether America is ready to accept a non-White as the Commander-in-Chief. <b>The President is almost deified in the US, his (yes, his, as there has never been a woman in the position) every move and every word is analysed with great interest, he becomes the role model for youngsters. And America still thinks of itself as largely WASP, White Anglo-Saxon Protestant. As a result, it is unclear whether the enthusiasm shown by the crowds today will translate into a winning coalition.</b>
In opinion polls conducted today pitting Mr Obama against Mr John McCain, Mr Obama ends up winning. But do these opinion polls mean much? The prejudices of the pollsters enter into the picture, as has been seen often in the disastrous predictions of so-called psephologists in India. Besides, it is likely that many people will appear more liberal in a poll than they really are. Some of Mr Obama's perceived support may well vanish at the polling booth.
Besides, Mr Obama is all rhetoric and no substance. He has no track record. Yes, we all want world peace and want to stop global warming, but oratory won't do it. Mr Obama's watchword is change. All very nice, but exactly what is he going to change?
Is Mr Obama going to immediately pull out of Iraq and Afghanistan? Is he going to bring in universal health care? Is he going to single-handedly rescue the recession-bound American economy? Is he going to change American foreign policy so that the US stops supporting dictators like Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf? Is he going to immediately reverse the decline in American education and competitiveness?
Is Mr Obama going to move away from depending on Saudi petro-dollars? Is he going to make the plight of oppressed racial minorities in America much better? How is he going to rein in rampaging China and resurgent Russia? Is he going to reduce global warming by America dramatically?
None of these are amenable to quick fixes. It is, therefore, not entirely clear exactly what Mr Obama is going to change. He may be able to beat Ms Clinton based on all this rhetoric, but Mr McCain may not be quite so easy.
<b>Ms Clinton suffers from some disadvantages: One, the public is tired of her, and of her spouse. Two, Americans are more sexist than racist. </b>But there is no question about her competence or her experience and she may yet be the "Comeback Kid", as Mr Bill Clinton was.
There are also troubling issues about Mr Obama's faith that Mr McCain will exploit. Apparently Mr Obama's personal pastor is an Afro-centrist to the extent that staffers had to prevent him from being prominent in the campaign, fearing he would alienate Whites.
And indeed, there is some murky stuff about Mr Obama's religion. He wears his Christian faith on his sleeve, loudly proclaiming all the right Jesus-saves stuff. But is it that a case of "milady doth protest too much"? It is a fact that Mr Obama was born a Mohammedan, to a Mohammedan father (a Kenyan) and a converted-Mohammedan (White) mother. He spent some years of his childhood with his Mohammedan step-father in Indonesia. All this makes him, forever, a Mohammedan in the eyes of, say, Saudi Arabia.
This has also led to persistent rumours that Mr Obama is a Manchurian Candidate, someone whose loyalties lie elsewhere, and someone who is being bank-rolled by them, specifically by oil-rich Arabs. Whether or not this is true, there will be a determined smear-campaign to this effect. In an America that feels embattled both by terrorism and by the influx of foreign money, this may well resonate.
In the end, Mr Obama will not be a winning candidate against Mr McCain. There is an intriguing possibility, though: The Democratic Convention may draft Mr Al Gore. After all, he actually did win the presidency some years ago, only to be cheated out of it on technicalities. And since then, he has burnished his credentials, winning not only a Nobel Prize but also an Oscar. It is unlikely that Mr Gore would want to have Ms Clinton as his running mate. This leads to the possibility of a Gore-Obama ticket; which could well be a winner. Mr Gore's southern roots may win them votes there. In the West, North-East and Mid-West, both of them have enough charisma. Mr Gore's stolid earnestness combined with Mr Obama's oratorical flourishes may be just the ticket.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Rajeev Srinivasan
Barack Obama might be ahead of Hillary Clinton, but his path to White House will not be an easy one
There certainly is a buzz around Mr Barack Obama. His string of 11 straight victories over Ms Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries has startled both pundits and average voters. The extravagant comparisons to John Kennedy's fabled Camelot, the enthusiastic youngsters who mob him everywhere, the immense fund-raising he has managed -- all this suggests that Mr Obama's momentum is unstoppable.
There is a generation gap among voters: Those who remember Camelot and those who read about it later. The older generation is much more willing to accept Ms Clinton's record of experience and maturity. The young are swept away by the promise of change and the idealism that are the cornerstones of the Obama campaign.
So Mr Obama has the "Big Mo", momentum. It is indeed remarkable that a Black man is now offering a credible challenge for the US presidency. After all, the brutal racism of Jim Crow, the landmark Supreme Court decision Brown vs Board of Education, and Rosa Parks's refusal to yield a seat on a bus are all within living memory.
There certainly has been considerable progress in the ability of individual Blacks to rise to the top in the US. But it is questionable whether America is ready to accept a non-White as the Commander-in-Chief. <b>The President is almost deified in the US, his (yes, his, as there has never been a woman in the position) every move and every word is analysed with great interest, he becomes the role model for youngsters. And America still thinks of itself as largely WASP, White Anglo-Saxon Protestant. As a result, it is unclear whether the enthusiasm shown by the crowds today will translate into a winning coalition.</b>
In opinion polls conducted today pitting Mr Obama against Mr John McCain, Mr Obama ends up winning. But do these opinion polls mean much? The prejudices of the pollsters enter into the picture, as has been seen often in the disastrous predictions of so-called psephologists in India. Besides, it is likely that many people will appear more liberal in a poll than they really are. Some of Mr Obama's perceived support may well vanish at the polling booth.
Besides, Mr Obama is all rhetoric and no substance. He has no track record. Yes, we all want world peace and want to stop global warming, but oratory won't do it. Mr Obama's watchword is change. All very nice, but exactly what is he going to change?
Is Mr Obama going to immediately pull out of Iraq and Afghanistan? Is he going to bring in universal health care? Is he going to single-handedly rescue the recession-bound American economy? Is he going to change American foreign policy so that the US stops supporting dictators like Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf? Is he going to immediately reverse the decline in American education and competitiveness?
Is Mr Obama going to move away from depending on Saudi petro-dollars? Is he going to make the plight of oppressed racial minorities in America much better? How is he going to rein in rampaging China and resurgent Russia? Is he going to reduce global warming by America dramatically?
None of these are amenable to quick fixes. It is, therefore, not entirely clear exactly what Mr Obama is going to change. He may be able to beat Ms Clinton based on all this rhetoric, but Mr McCain may not be quite so easy.
<b>Ms Clinton suffers from some disadvantages: One, the public is tired of her, and of her spouse. Two, Americans are more sexist than racist. </b>But there is no question about her competence or her experience and she may yet be the "Comeback Kid", as Mr Bill Clinton was.
There are also troubling issues about Mr Obama's faith that Mr McCain will exploit. Apparently Mr Obama's personal pastor is an Afro-centrist to the extent that staffers had to prevent him from being prominent in the campaign, fearing he would alienate Whites.
And indeed, there is some murky stuff about Mr Obama's religion. He wears his Christian faith on his sleeve, loudly proclaiming all the right Jesus-saves stuff. But is it that a case of "milady doth protest too much"? It is a fact that Mr Obama was born a Mohammedan, to a Mohammedan father (a Kenyan) and a converted-Mohammedan (White) mother. He spent some years of his childhood with his Mohammedan step-father in Indonesia. All this makes him, forever, a Mohammedan in the eyes of, say, Saudi Arabia.
This has also led to persistent rumours that Mr Obama is a Manchurian Candidate, someone whose loyalties lie elsewhere, and someone who is being bank-rolled by them, specifically by oil-rich Arabs. Whether or not this is true, there will be a determined smear-campaign to this effect. In an America that feels embattled both by terrorism and by the influx of foreign money, this may well resonate.
In the end, Mr Obama will not be a winning candidate against Mr McCain. There is an intriguing possibility, though: The Democratic Convention may draft Mr Al Gore. After all, he actually did win the presidency some years ago, only to be cheated out of it on technicalities. And since then, he has burnished his credentials, winning not only a Nobel Prize but also an Oscar. It is unlikely that Mr Gore would want to have Ms Clinton as his running mate. This leads to the possibility of a Gore-Obama ticket; which could well be a winner. Mr Gore's southern roots may win them votes there. In the West, North-East and Mid-West, both of them have enough charisma. Mr Gore's stolid earnestness combined with Mr Obama's oratorical flourishes may be just the ticket.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->