03-15-2008, 01:54 AM
Deccan Chronile, 15 mar., 2008
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Congress should go for early polls in Karnataka
By Arun Nehru
Election season is in full swing and hence itâs time to play musical chairs. Will the Tripura result â a landslide CPI(M) victory â have any impact on West Bengal, where the Left seems to be making up lost ground even as the Congress and Trinamul look to the future for an "arrangement"? The results in Nagaland and Meghalaya have been on predictable lines. The Congress held its ground and came close to a simple majority, although the regional parties put up a strong fight. In these two states, at least, musical chairs will continue until a power and asset-sharing agreement is reached.
In Meghalaya, for instance, the governor invites the Congress and D.D. Lapang is sworn in hurriedly and has 10 days to prove his majority. I suppose 48 hours is sufficient for a few MLAs to switch positions. This, when P.A. Sangma, former Speaker and NCP candidate for chief ministership, had cobbled together a coalition â the Meghalaya Progressive Alliance (MPA) has 31 of the 60 MLAs â but this was not good enough for the governor. The MPA went to the Supreme Court. I suspect we will see a repetition of events that took place in Jharkhand, Goa and Bihar in the past few years. Nagalandâs situation is also, as they say, fluid. The Democratic Alliance of Nagaland won the largest number of seats and paraded 33 MLAs (out of an Assembly of 60). The governor is yet to take a decision and I wonder if this delay will help the Congress muster a majority.
Meghalaya and Nagaland will be subject to constant instability. This is unfortunate, given that security issues are a concern here. If a poll verdict is negated by defections, then the situation will deteriorate. Political policy in the border states has to be different from the general areas. The Kashmir experiment by the Congress â where the PDP with fewer seats was given the power to govern â was the right decision. Greater attention has to be paid to political arrangements in the Northeast, a major area of terror infiltration.
In an era of coalitions, the Congress is losing its majority status but still has sufficient numbers to work out alliances with regional forces and ensure good governance. The trend will be evident in the Lok Sabha elections. The acid test may well come in Assam with 13 seats. An alliance between the Asom Gana Parishad and the BJP and anti-incumbency are crucial factors. This may be a problem for the Congress.
There is little advantage for the Congress in early elections. Political accidents are very much still a reality. The progress of the BJP-led NDA and the Left-SP-dominated Third Front will have to be closely watched to generate a reliable picture. Undoubtedly, Sonia Gandhi will be the main campaigner. Rahul Gandhiâs intense tour of Orissaâs tribal areas yielded good attendance. His approach in targeting the youth (about 65 per cent voters qualify) with a no-nonsense approach may well elicit a positive response from the new electorate.
Rahul Gandhi was not able to do much in terms of electoral success in UP. But his effort came almost after a decade during which the stateâs political base had shifted away from the party. But the party is at least making some effort to engage in political activity in the state. The Congress may not gain much in the Lok Sabha election in UP, but one can never tell. Anti-incumbency trends may mean that the Congress has a fighting chance of success. There are multiple tasks before the Congress.
In Karnataka, it is good that S.M. Krishna is returning to active politics. In fact, in this state at least the Congress should go for elections as early as possible. My experience of over a decade of fighting elections is that if a political party is not ready to fight elections within three months, it will not be ready for three years. A single election victory before the Lok Sabha election can disrupt the NDAâs consolidation and formation of the Third Front as well. A defeat for the Congress will work the other way round.
Elections may be a year away but adjustments and alliances of the future are beginning to take shape. The recent Rajya Sabha elections reveal the complex task faced by each party in the states. West Bengal is a classic example where the Congress will have to choose between the TC, as a possible future ally, and the CPI(M), its current ally, in selecting final candidates. No party has the numbers to win on their own. Several other states â Karnataka and Bihar for instance â are in a similar status. We will see new alliances taking place in Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand, Assam and, even perhaps, in Kashmir where the PDP and the NC are locked in battle. The Congress and the BJP may have a straight fight in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Delhi, but the BSP will be present in all these states and may prove to be a force to reckon with. The BSP is unlikely to align with anyone at this juncture. Election forecasts are notorious and all analysts are likely to go wrong. Current alliances may well change several times with all eyes on a winning combination and political longevity.
Arun Nehru is a former Union minister
<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Congress should go for early polls in Karnataka
By Arun Nehru
Election season is in full swing and hence itâs time to play musical chairs. Will the Tripura result â a landslide CPI(M) victory â have any impact on West Bengal, where the Left seems to be making up lost ground even as the Congress and Trinamul look to the future for an "arrangement"? The results in Nagaland and Meghalaya have been on predictable lines. The Congress held its ground and came close to a simple majority, although the regional parties put up a strong fight. In these two states, at least, musical chairs will continue until a power and asset-sharing agreement is reached.
In Meghalaya, for instance, the governor invites the Congress and D.D. Lapang is sworn in hurriedly and has 10 days to prove his majority. I suppose 48 hours is sufficient for a few MLAs to switch positions. This, when P.A. Sangma, former Speaker and NCP candidate for chief ministership, had cobbled together a coalition â the Meghalaya Progressive Alliance (MPA) has 31 of the 60 MLAs â but this was not good enough for the governor. The MPA went to the Supreme Court. I suspect we will see a repetition of events that took place in Jharkhand, Goa and Bihar in the past few years. Nagalandâs situation is also, as they say, fluid. The Democratic Alliance of Nagaland won the largest number of seats and paraded 33 MLAs (out of an Assembly of 60). The governor is yet to take a decision and I wonder if this delay will help the Congress muster a majority.
Meghalaya and Nagaland will be subject to constant instability. This is unfortunate, given that security issues are a concern here. If a poll verdict is negated by defections, then the situation will deteriorate. Political policy in the border states has to be different from the general areas. The Kashmir experiment by the Congress â where the PDP with fewer seats was given the power to govern â was the right decision. Greater attention has to be paid to political arrangements in the Northeast, a major area of terror infiltration.
In an era of coalitions, the Congress is losing its majority status but still has sufficient numbers to work out alliances with regional forces and ensure good governance. The trend will be evident in the Lok Sabha elections. The acid test may well come in Assam with 13 seats. An alliance between the Asom Gana Parishad and the BJP and anti-incumbency are crucial factors. This may be a problem for the Congress.
There is little advantage for the Congress in early elections. Political accidents are very much still a reality. The progress of the BJP-led NDA and the Left-SP-dominated Third Front will have to be closely watched to generate a reliable picture. Undoubtedly, Sonia Gandhi will be the main campaigner. Rahul Gandhiâs intense tour of Orissaâs tribal areas yielded good attendance. His approach in targeting the youth (about 65 per cent voters qualify) with a no-nonsense approach may well elicit a positive response from the new electorate.
Rahul Gandhi was not able to do much in terms of electoral success in UP. But his effort came almost after a decade during which the stateâs political base had shifted away from the party. But the party is at least making some effort to engage in political activity in the state. The Congress may not gain much in the Lok Sabha election in UP, but one can never tell. Anti-incumbency trends may mean that the Congress has a fighting chance of success. There are multiple tasks before the Congress.
In Karnataka, it is good that S.M. Krishna is returning to active politics. In fact, in this state at least the Congress should go for elections as early as possible. My experience of over a decade of fighting elections is that if a political party is not ready to fight elections within three months, it will not be ready for three years. A single election victory before the Lok Sabha election can disrupt the NDAâs consolidation and formation of the Third Front as well. A defeat for the Congress will work the other way round.
Elections may be a year away but adjustments and alliances of the future are beginning to take shape. The recent Rajya Sabha elections reveal the complex task faced by each party in the states. West Bengal is a classic example where the Congress will have to choose between the TC, as a possible future ally, and the CPI(M), its current ally, in selecting final candidates. No party has the numbers to win on their own. Several other states â Karnataka and Bihar for instance â are in a similar status. We will see new alliances taking place in Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand, Assam and, even perhaps, in Kashmir where the PDP and the NC are locked in battle. The Congress and the BJP may have a straight fight in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Delhi, but the BSP will be present in all these states and may prove to be a force to reckon with. The BSP is unlikely to align with anyone at this juncture. Election forecasts are notorious and all analysts are likely to go wrong. Current alliances may well change several times with all eyes on a winning combination and political longevity.
Arun Nehru is a former Union minister
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