08-12-2004, 12:49 AM
Uncertain at the Centre
Anuradha Dutt
A revealing study prepared by the German multinational Deutsche Bank has recommended against major investment in India by highlighting the uncertain future of the United Progressive Alliance Government, headed by bureaucrat turned politician, Dr Manmohan Singh.
The main reasons cited for such surmise are the UPA's uninspiring budget proposals and persisting policy differences between the Congress and its communist allies over the fuel price hike and easing of foreign direct investment rules. One might add that spiralling inflation and the one per cent reduction in the rate of interest of employees' provident fund are other contentious points. At the ground level, the excessive price of onions and vegetables could well bring tears to the UPA's eyes.
The study, titled "Indian Parliament looking to 2006", predicts a mid-term poll in 18 months. The event is likely to be precipitated by the state elections in early July 2006, when the Congress is pitted against the Left parties. Some observes might feel that the time estimate veers towards the optimistic since the communist trade unions, exercising considerable influence on their party policy makers, are inclined to parting ways with the Congress earlier. In any case, since the Left is essentially a watchdog of the UPA, extending outside support to the ruling coalition, its primary interest is to keep the BJP-led alliance out of office. In terms of the material benefits of power, it has nothing to lose. Only Lok Sabha Speaker Somnath Chatterjee, CPI(M)'s veteran parliamentarian, might be somewhat inconvenienced in the event that the communists decide to dump the Congress in a bid to keep intact its support base. For, continued association with a ruling regime that has made some unpopular economic developments to its discredit at the very outset will prove detrimental in the long run.
The UPA testifies perfectly to the dictum that there can be no permanent friends or enemies in politics. The electorate is confronted with the edifying spectacle of the CPI(M), along with other communist parties, propping up the Congress-led coalition at the centre, though the two parties fight tooth and nail in the red bastion West Bengal and Kerala. Many grassroots workers die in inter-party clashes. Strange indeed is life, for during the dark period of the Emergency (June 1976 - January 1977), the CPI(M) was pitted against the Congress under Indira Gandhi, supported by the CPI. It joined the Bharatiya Jana Sangh, the BJP's pre-1980 avatar, and the socialists in opposing the fascist onslaught on civil liberties. The Left party even extended support to the short-lived Janata Government, the Jana Sangh being one of its components.
The experiment was repeated after the November 1989 polls, when the Left and the Right supported the VP Singh-led coalition of regional parties and socialist factions. Again, the alliance collapsed under the weight of its irreconcilable differences, with the BJP withdrawing support over the implementation of the Mandal Commission report, in the wake of the VHP's October 30 attack on the Babri Masjid. Alliances such as these, which owe purely to the compulsions of real politik, are by their very nature doomed. The National Democratic Alliance, comprising the BJP, regional parties and socialist splinters was more workable, as its five-year stint demonstrated, because they seemed to have more in common.
The lesser partners, chiefly Chandrababu Naidu's Telugu Desam Party (TDP), the Akalis and socialists, willingly collaborated with the dominant BJP so long as they procured their pound of flesh. The BJP further reciprocated by marginalising its Hindutva agenda, that was instrumental in substantially enlarging its vote bank. While this may have kept the key NDA constituents together till the end of its tenure in office, it proved counterproductive for the BJP by eroding its support base. Thus, the Congress, with a tally of 145 Lok Sabha seats in the recent elections, still fared better than the BJP, whose haul was reduced to 137 from 182 seats in the 1998 mid-term polls. Its socialist allies too suffered reverses. But, it was the TDP, which was voted out in Andhra Pradesh that was most severely affected by the loss of credibility.
These, then, are the perils of opportunistic alliances, that pay little heed to voters' sentiments. For, the latter make their disenchantment known at the hustings in a decisive way.
Anuradha Dutt
A revealing study prepared by the German multinational Deutsche Bank has recommended against major investment in India by highlighting the uncertain future of the United Progressive Alliance Government, headed by bureaucrat turned politician, Dr Manmohan Singh.
The main reasons cited for such surmise are the UPA's uninspiring budget proposals and persisting policy differences between the Congress and its communist allies over the fuel price hike and easing of foreign direct investment rules. One might add that spiralling inflation and the one per cent reduction in the rate of interest of employees' provident fund are other contentious points. At the ground level, the excessive price of onions and vegetables could well bring tears to the UPA's eyes.
The study, titled "Indian Parliament looking to 2006", predicts a mid-term poll in 18 months. The event is likely to be precipitated by the state elections in early July 2006, when the Congress is pitted against the Left parties. Some observes might feel that the time estimate veers towards the optimistic since the communist trade unions, exercising considerable influence on their party policy makers, are inclined to parting ways with the Congress earlier. In any case, since the Left is essentially a watchdog of the UPA, extending outside support to the ruling coalition, its primary interest is to keep the BJP-led alliance out of office. In terms of the material benefits of power, it has nothing to lose. Only Lok Sabha Speaker Somnath Chatterjee, CPI(M)'s veteran parliamentarian, might be somewhat inconvenienced in the event that the communists decide to dump the Congress in a bid to keep intact its support base. For, continued association with a ruling regime that has made some unpopular economic developments to its discredit at the very outset will prove detrimental in the long run.
The UPA testifies perfectly to the dictum that there can be no permanent friends or enemies in politics. The electorate is confronted with the edifying spectacle of the CPI(M), along with other communist parties, propping up the Congress-led coalition at the centre, though the two parties fight tooth and nail in the red bastion West Bengal and Kerala. Many grassroots workers die in inter-party clashes. Strange indeed is life, for during the dark period of the Emergency (June 1976 - January 1977), the CPI(M) was pitted against the Congress under Indira Gandhi, supported by the CPI. It joined the Bharatiya Jana Sangh, the BJP's pre-1980 avatar, and the socialists in opposing the fascist onslaught on civil liberties. The Left party even extended support to the short-lived Janata Government, the Jana Sangh being one of its components.
The experiment was repeated after the November 1989 polls, when the Left and the Right supported the VP Singh-led coalition of regional parties and socialist factions. Again, the alliance collapsed under the weight of its irreconcilable differences, with the BJP withdrawing support over the implementation of the Mandal Commission report, in the wake of the VHP's October 30 attack on the Babri Masjid. Alliances such as these, which owe purely to the compulsions of real politik, are by their very nature doomed. The National Democratic Alliance, comprising the BJP, regional parties and socialist splinters was more workable, as its five-year stint demonstrated, because they seemed to have more in common.
The lesser partners, chiefly Chandrababu Naidu's Telugu Desam Party (TDP), the Akalis and socialists, willingly collaborated with the dominant BJP so long as they procured their pound of flesh. The BJP further reciprocated by marginalising its Hindutva agenda, that was instrumental in substantially enlarging its vote bank. While this may have kept the key NDA constituents together till the end of its tenure in office, it proved counterproductive for the BJP by eroding its support base. Thus, the Congress, with a tally of 145 Lok Sabha seats in the recent elections, still fared better than the BJP, whose haul was reduced to 137 from 182 seats in the 1998 mid-term polls. Its socialist allies too suffered reverses. But, it was the TDP, which was voted out in Andhra Pradesh that was most severely affected by the loss of credibility.
These, then, are the perils of opportunistic alliances, that pay little heed to voters' sentiments. For, the latter make their disenchantment known at the hustings in a decisive way.