04-26-2008, 11:35 AM
'09 polls: Will Cong, BJP swap roles?
The new constituency boundaries recently fixed by the Delimitation Commission have without intending to do so liberated the Congress--and its rivals--from the phantom of mid-term polls. The eight or so months the Election Commission of India (FCI) will need to graft the changes on to the Lok Sabha map, in effect, means about eight months without the big election.
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How will the political parties use the reprieve? Looking at the Congress's current form, it should sink into further inaction. Even without the mid-term threat, the farthest approximate date of the 15th General Election is April-May 2009 - just a year away. But so far the Congress has betrayed none of the get-up-go visibility that is there in its rivals. Instead, there is about it a sense of resignation of an approaching defeat--so much at odds with its status as a ruling party with some achievements to its credit.</span>
Consider the three existing political formations, the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance, the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance, and the yet to concretize third alternative. Of the lot, the first looks a loser already and the second a winner already. The third alternative appears placed midway.
In truth, all three are shaky, and have much to thank the Election Commission for. The Congress has a theoretically speaking stable alliance but is so fuzzy about everything--its programme, its vision, its leader, its achievements and the state of its alliance--that it will surprise no one should the winner of 2004 transmogrify into the loser of 2009.
The BJP's dazzle and show hide the fact that it leads a rump alliance. The third alternative's possible partners are all very important and high-profile but how, when, and with what common programme? Whether the Samajwadi's Mulayam Singh-Amar Singh duo, the Telugu Desam's Chandrababu Naidu, the Indian National Lok Dal's Om Prakash Chautala and the Left parties will unite is hard to tell.
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The BJP, always first into action, and constantly first with propaganda, has leapt ahead of the competition with some deft footwork. The Party revels in the meet the President, meet the Chief Election Commissioner, issue statements, announce yatras, unveil portraits, plan strategy sessions, hold Party meetings, hold NDA meetings et al. No one knows better than its peripatetic leaders how to cram the day with activity.
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The BJP and the Congress must have opposite DNA codes. The Congress can barely wake up. The BJP is full of beans. When the latter was just out of power, it plunged heartily into factional fights. Now it is as heartily into cozy togetherness. Indeed, through the time the Congress has been in power, it is the BJP that has hogged the headlines--first for its many troubles, and lately, for the resolve with which it has fixed the troubles.
Today the Party that fought endlessly has a Prime Ministerial candidate behind whom the cadre stands in apparent solidarity, its leadership is gung ho after winning Gujarat and has the RSS as its moral guardian. Together the package is of a Party driven, united and focused on the 2009 big fight. The new zeal had L.K. Advani asserting recently that his Party would inflict upon the Congress its "worst defeat in history."
All very impressive but a lot of the buzz is premature, self-created and very BJP like. About a month ago, the Saffron Party spearheaded a meeting of the NDA, which hogged television and print news. And for good reason: The NDA constituents, overcoming their earlier reservations, had unanimously backed Advani for Prime Minister.
The problem was with the accompanying visuals. The NDA that posed with Advani seemed a sadly emaciated version of the NDA that captured over 300 seats in the 1999 Lok Sabha election. Only three alliance partners could be spotted in the picture --- the Akali Dal's Prakash Singh Badal, the Biju Janata Dal's Naveen Patnaik and the Janata Dal (United)'s Nitish Kumar.
Some allies like the Shiv Sena, were possibly out of the frame but still in the alliance. Even so, this was a vastly depleted stock compared to the NDA's 1999 magnificent peak. Not that this little matter stopped the BJP's beaming spokespersons. They claimed the presence at the meet of "all our allies except Mamata Banerjee" and got away with it, too, judging by the gushy media coverage of the event.
Since 2002, it has seen a virtual exodus from the NDA. Among those that have deserted the BJP are Farooq Abdullah's National Conference, Chautala's Indian National Lok Dal, Ram Vilas Paswan's Lok Jan Shakti, Karunanidhi's Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and its State-allies, Ajit Singh's Rashtriya Lok Dal, Sukh Ram's Himachal Vikas Congress and the Indian Federal Democratic Party.
The NDA's outside prop, Chandrababu Naidu's Telugu Desam has broken away while the Trinamool Congress seems on the verge of quitting the alliance. All this not counting the many one-man State parties that habitually align with the ruling side.
The Congress too has had its share of alliance problems. Chandrasekhar Rao's Telangana Rashtra Samiti and Vaiko's MDMK have exited the UPA. Mulayam's Samajwadi and Mayawati's BSP, which at one time lined up behind the Congress, are as good as not there thanks to the Congress' constant flip-flop between the two Parties.
Of the rest, Laloo's Rashtriya Janata Dal, Paswan's Lok Jan Shakti Party and Karunanidhi's DMK won the maximum seats they could in the 2004 election. The DMK alliance won 25 of the 25 seats it consented, the RJD - LJP alliance 26 of 34 seats it contested and Sharad Pawar's NCP is unlikely to be able to repeat its 22 seat tally. Besides, it can just tolerate its senior partner (Congress). The People's Democratic Party and the Congress are in an equally loveless relationship.
What this adds up to is a delicate coalition held together more by the glue of power than by chemistry and a sense of common purpose. The constituents, with their history of broken commitments and relationships, can head in any direction come 2009.
What should the Congress have done? What can it still do? Many things. First, ensure that the partners have a stake in staying the course. Second, dispel the confusion on the Prime Ministerial question. True, the Opposition needs to declare its Prime Ministerial candidate, not the ruling party. However, a ruling party that might change its leader without evident compulsions calls attention to its incapacity.
Specially, when that possible new leader is a young and untested member of the dynasty, Rahul Gandhi, it also calls attention to the Party's bankruptcy. Third, the Grand Dame of Politics needs to hit the streets, go to town on its achievements, re-jig the Party apparatus, send the best leaders there are to the States, and do so unitedly and cohesively.
But look at the Congress record. The UPA has put in place three legislations acclaimed as historic --- the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA), the Right to information Act and the Schedule Tribes and Other Traditional Forest Dwellers (Recognition of Forest Rights) Act. Each is in force defying internal sabotage. The ownership of the NREGA has moved from the Congress to the Opposition. On the foreign policy front too, the civil nuclear deal with the United States was a coup of sorts that the Congress disowned before the Left parties.
In 2004, Sonia Gandhi stitched up an alliance that went on to win. Today, the Congress cannot spring that surprise. As the ruling party, it must define its record in office. Instead, it is mired in confusion over whether or not to push Rahul Gandhi. Indira Gandhi earned her spurs; Sonia Gandhi has proven her worth. Rahul Gandhi cannot talk meritocracy and rely on aristocracy.
This is where the BJP comes in. The Party suffered a stunning defeat in May 2004, watched the NDA crumble and today has to virtually start from scratch. Yet its motivation seems all the greater for the challenge. Last month, it has re-engaged with the AIADMK leader Jayalalitha. A core team is also prospecting for other allies.
The road is far from easy. Parties such as the TDP, the LJP and the Trinamool Congress need the Muslim vote more than they need the Hindutva party. If the BJP fails, it will not be for want of trying.
The Congress should learn a lesson from the 2004 poll when the BJP's shrill propaganda led it to a crushing defeat. The Congress then was the tortoise to the BJP's hare. But today, the slow and steady tortoise must have a strategy to win the race.
TD Jagadesan, INFA