US Elections 2008 - III

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http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horserace...t_the_line.html

Jay Costs' analysis.

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->The following chart has the details. It delineates Obama's margin of victory among African Americans over time. <b>The states are divided into the South and non-South, then arranged chronologically</b>. <!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

<img src='http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/Obama%20Performance%20Among%20African%20Americans.gif' border='0' alt='user posted image' />

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->We have to be careful not to over-interpret these results because they are relatively small sub-samples of each exit poll. Nevertheless, there is a discernible trend in these numbers toward larger and larger Obama victories. <b>The African American vote now goes much more heavily for Obama than it did at the beginning of the cycle.</b> In fact, if we take Clinton's margin among African Americans in Tennessee and apply it to North Carolina, keeping all else equal, Obama would have barely defeated her.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->