05-14-2008, 03:31 AM
<!--QuoteBegin-kharavela+May 11 2008, 06:44 AM-->QUOTE(kharavela @ May 11 2008, 06:44 AM)<!--QuoteEBegin-->Ravi Shankar Prasad said on NDTV that in the 89 seats that went to poll in phase 1, BJP had won only 10 in 2004. So, 31 is a huge improvement.
That means in 2004 election, BJP had won 69 out of the remaining 135 seats. That is 51.11% of seats.
Now if BJP wins 60% of the remaining seats, it will win 81 seats. Total would be 31+ 81 = 112. That is the halfway mark. So, BJP has good chances of winning majority on its own.
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Any idea why NDTV came out with this exit poll results?
Two possibilities are:
1. In Gujarat, they played anti-BJP psephology and it fell flat on their face. Are they now experimenting with a strong pro-BJP numbers so that border line voters who are likely to vote for BJP don't feel compelled to vote this time?
2. After losing their credibility in Gujarat, they are coming up with correct results in Karnataka. Once credibility is regained, use that in full force to influence the outcome of next parliament election.
Whatever it is, I don't believe that NDTV is just trying to be honest about the exit polls.
That means in 2004 election, BJP had won 69 out of the remaining 135 seats. That is 51.11% of seats.
Now if BJP wins 60% of the remaining seats, it will win 81 seats. Total would be 31+ 81 = 112. That is the halfway mark. So, BJP has good chances of winning majority on its own.
<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Any idea why NDTV came out with this exit poll results?
Two possibilities are:
1. In Gujarat, they played anti-BJP psephology and it fell flat on their face. Are they now experimenting with a strong pro-BJP numbers so that border line voters who are likely to vote for BJP don't feel compelled to vote this time?
2. After losing their credibility in Gujarat, they are coming up with correct results in Karnataka. Once credibility is regained, use that in full force to influence the outcome of next parliament election.
Whatever it is, I don't believe that NDTV is just trying to be honest about the exit polls.