05-26-2008, 12:50 AM
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><b>Lotus in the South </b>
The Pioneer Edit Desk
Why BJP's Karnataka win is a milestone
More than anything else, the results of the Karnataka Assembly election are a resounding rebuff to lazy, Delhi-based political punditry and psephology. In taking the BJP to a near simple majority, Karnataka's voters have rewarded a party that forged a winning social coalition, with an appropriate mix of both robust nationalism and regional energies. Early indications suggest that the<b> BJP's vote share has gone up by nearly 11 per cent when compared to the 2004 election</b>. Such a surge cannot be explained away in sectarian or geographically-limited terms. It simply means that the BJP is now a pan-Karnataka party. For evidence, one may only turn to south Karnataka, where the battle has traditionally been between the <b>Congress and Mr HD Deve Gowda's appeal among the Vokkaligas</b>. Yet, here too the BJP has made significant inroads. It has won in the cities, it has won in agricultural areas, it has consolidated its hold among Lingayats -- a sect rather than a caste, as is often erroneously made out -- in a State where caste hierarchies are not as stratified as they have been in, say, Uttar Pradesh. Indeed, the BJP's success suggests the maturing of a political project that saw it establishing itself as a national party with a strong Kannadiga identity, rooted in local social alliances and led by a son of the soil. This was, as it happens, the very model the Congress used in the early years of independence, when it allowed strong State leaders to flourish. In later years, an insecure high command dismantled this structure. Today, the Indian polity has turned more federal. Regional aspirations have to be accommodated within parties or else they will simply migrate elsewhere. To the credit of the BJP, from Gujarat to Karnataka, it has been alive to these trends.
In terms of votes and seats, the Karnataka results have pointed to gains for the BJP as well as the Congress. While the Congress has lost its second successive election in a State that in the past has elected both Mrs Indira Gandhi and Ms Sonia Gandhi to the Lok Sabha, it has done better than 2004. The entity that has been squeezed out is the Janata Dal (Secular), the party of Mr HD Deve Gowda, a one-time regional strongman but in recent years only a cynical blackmailer. This resurgence of the national parties is proof that there is no iron law that makes the growth of regional parties inevitable. While fractured verdicts and confused results have occurred in India, over time people tend to reject the spoilers and the also-rans and clarify the polity. This is what they did in Uttar Pradesh in 2007, when the beneficiary was a local party. This is what they have done in Karnataka as well, except here trust has been placed in all-India parties. It is empirical evidence that if the BJP allows robust, locally-rooted units to prosper in the States, it can yet thwart fragmented, regional and caste-based rivals.
Can State elections anticipate the national mood? In 1987, Devi Lal's drubbing of the Congress in Haryana was the first sign that Rajiv Gandhi was losing his touch. Likewise, Karnataka has made it apparent that the Congress has gained nothing from the reputation of the Government it leads at the Centre, and that inflation is a huge vote loser. That is something for the Congress to chew on, as the BJP gets down to governance in Karnataka.
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The Pioneer Edit Desk
Why BJP's Karnataka win is a milestone
More than anything else, the results of the Karnataka Assembly election are a resounding rebuff to lazy, Delhi-based political punditry and psephology. In taking the BJP to a near simple majority, Karnataka's voters have rewarded a party that forged a winning social coalition, with an appropriate mix of both robust nationalism and regional energies. Early indications suggest that the<b> BJP's vote share has gone up by nearly 11 per cent when compared to the 2004 election</b>. Such a surge cannot be explained away in sectarian or geographically-limited terms. It simply means that the BJP is now a pan-Karnataka party. For evidence, one may only turn to south Karnataka, where the battle has traditionally been between the <b>Congress and Mr HD Deve Gowda's appeal among the Vokkaligas</b>. Yet, here too the BJP has made significant inroads. It has won in the cities, it has won in agricultural areas, it has consolidated its hold among Lingayats -- a sect rather than a caste, as is often erroneously made out -- in a State where caste hierarchies are not as stratified as they have been in, say, Uttar Pradesh. Indeed, the BJP's success suggests the maturing of a political project that saw it establishing itself as a national party with a strong Kannadiga identity, rooted in local social alliances and led by a son of the soil. This was, as it happens, the very model the Congress used in the early years of independence, when it allowed strong State leaders to flourish. In later years, an insecure high command dismantled this structure. Today, the Indian polity has turned more federal. Regional aspirations have to be accommodated within parties or else they will simply migrate elsewhere. To the credit of the BJP, from Gujarat to Karnataka, it has been alive to these trends.
In terms of votes and seats, the Karnataka results have pointed to gains for the BJP as well as the Congress. While the Congress has lost its second successive election in a State that in the past has elected both Mrs Indira Gandhi and Ms Sonia Gandhi to the Lok Sabha, it has done better than 2004. The entity that has been squeezed out is the Janata Dal (Secular), the party of Mr HD Deve Gowda, a one-time regional strongman but in recent years only a cynical blackmailer. This resurgence of the national parties is proof that there is no iron law that makes the growth of regional parties inevitable. While fractured verdicts and confused results have occurred in India, over time people tend to reject the spoilers and the also-rans and clarify the polity. This is what they did in Uttar Pradesh in 2007, when the beneficiary was a local party. This is what they have done in Karnataka as well, except here trust has been placed in all-India parties. It is empirical evidence that if the BJP allows robust, locally-rooted units to prosper in the States, it can yet thwart fragmented, regional and caste-based rivals.
Can State elections anticipate the national mood? In 1987, Devi Lal's drubbing of the Congress in Haryana was the first sign that Rajiv Gandhi was losing his touch. Likewise, Karnataka has made it apparent that the Congress has gained nothing from the reputation of the Government it leads at the Centre, and that inflation is a huge vote loser. That is something for the Congress to chew on, as the BJP gets down to governance in Karnataka.
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