05-27-2008, 07:26 AM
<b>Eye on winter poll weather</b>
<b>RADHIKA RAMASESHAN</b>
New Delhi, May 26: Winter is occupying Delhiâs mid-summer thoughts, not just because of unseasonal rain but because of the unsuspected southern wind blowing in from across the Vindhyas.
Jolted by the Karnataka poll result, Congress leaders have begun sounding one another on the timing of the next Lok Sabha elections.
A section feels that if the elections are held in April-May 2009 according to schedule, the situation on the ground might be worse than what it is now for the party, politically as well as economically. This section is eager for a 2008 winter poll instead of a risky summer outing.
The CPM leadership also thinks that polls âcould be held in six to eight monthsâ â which means between November and January.
A factor weighing on the Congressâs mind is the next batch of Assembly elections in November in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Delhi and Rajasthan â which are being billed a âdry runâ for the 2009 battle.
The votaries of early election contend that rather than tot up further losses and go to the Lok Sabha elections as an army of losers, the Congress should dovetail the drive to wrest power in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan with that to retain Delhi as well as the Centre.
A stronger case has been built on the economic front. If the monsoon is normal as was forecast, food prices should start falling by August-September and the impact will be felt by November.
âInflation may take a back seat and deprive the Opposition of a potent issue,â a Congress minister said.
Normally, prices fall if the monsoon is good and the kharif harvest is reassuring. On both counts, the governmentâs projections so far are positive.
Data collected by the government on fluctuations in the wholesale price index suggest prices peak between August and October. The decline usually begins in November and dips steadily from January, resuming the rise from May.
An April election could be cutting it too fine because unpredictable factors can always advance or push back the change in the price trend by a month or two. Oil is one such factor: the already sizzling global oil prices can rise further if there is an unusual spike in demand as it happens during some winters, the cumulative effect of which will tell on inflation in India towards the end of winter or beginning of summer.
That does not mean winter offers a cosy corner for those in the line of price fire. Critics of early polls, which also include allies such as the DMK and Lalu Prasadâs RJD, recalled that in the winter of 1999, the BJP was routed in the very states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Delhi on the price rise plank.
However, sources in the ruling establishment tried to quell such doubts by referring to the short-term administrative measures taken by the government to bring prices down. They said that while the government was confident of keeping the price line down by the end of the year, things could spiral out of control by the summer of 2009.
Along with economics, the politics of the nuclear deal is also at play. The pro-deal camp maintains that the agreement should be pushed through to restore the governmentâs âiqbalâ (integrity) and undermine the BJPâs campaign of a âweak governmentâ and a âweaker PMâ even if it meant losing the Leftâs support.
The overtures to the Samajwadi Party were the Congressâs way of muddling the Leftâs âthird frontâ blueprint. The Samajwadi Party was one of the CPMâs steadfast allies.
But the sceptics are also sharpening their knives against a pre-scheduled election which is likely to figure at the next CWC meeting.
They feel that the allies might not play ball. Sharad Pawar, the NCP chief, has been quoted as saying that when it came to the crunch, the allies will want to remain in the government âuntil the last dayâ.
<b>The Congress leadership is also keen to keep the UPA intact, ârealising that the party may not be in a position to get a majority on its own in the near futureâ. âOur goal should be to strengthen ourselves and our allies,â said a source close to the leadership.
The leadership is also wary of calling early elections like the BJP did in 2004 and miscalculated the situation. But the irony is that the Congress is being forced to decide on the election date when it is down, unlike the BJP which was then basking in the âgloryâ of India Shining.</b>
<b>RADHIKA RAMASESHAN</b>
New Delhi, May 26: Winter is occupying Delhiâs mid-summer thoughts, not just because of unseasonal rain but because of the unsuspected southern wind blowing in from across the Vindhyas.
Jolted by the Karnataka poll result, Congress leaders have begun sounding one another on the timing of the next Lok Sabha elections.
A section feels that if the elections are held in April-May 2009 according to schedule, the situation on the ground might be worse than what it is now for the party, politically as well as economically. This section is eager for a 2008 winter poll instead of a risky summer outing.
The CPM leadership also thinks that polls âcould be held in six to eight monthsâ â which means between November and January.
A factor weighing on the Congressâs mind is the next batch of Assembly elections in November in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Delhi and Rajasthan â which are being billed a âdry runâ for the 2009 battle.
The votaries of early election contend that rather than tot up further losses and go to the Lok Sabha elections as an army of losers, the Congress should dovetail the drive to wrest power in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan with that to retain Delhi as well as the Centre.
A stronger case has been built on the economic front. If the monsoon is normal as was forecast, food prices should start falling by August-September and the impact will be felt by November.
âInflation may take a back seat and deprive the Opposition of a potent issue,â a Congress minister said.
Normally, prices fall if the monsoon is good and the kharif harvest is reassuring. On both counts, the governmentâs projections so far are positive.
Data collected by the government on fluctuations in the wholesale price index suggest prices peak between August and October. The decline usually begins in November and dips steadily from January, resuming the rise from May.
An April election could be cutting it too fine because unpredictable factors can always advance or push back the change in the price trend by a month or two. Oil is one such factor: the already sizzling global oil prices can rise further if there is an unusual spike in demand as it happens during some winters, the cumulative effect of which will tell on inflation in India towards the end of winter or beginning of summer.
That does not mean winter offers a cosy corner for those in the line of price fire. Critics of early polls, which also include allies such as the DMK and Lalu Prasadâs RJD, recalled that in the winter of 1999, the BJP was routed in the very states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Delhi on the price rise plank.
However, sources in the ruling establishment tried to quell such doubts by referring to the short-term administrative measures taken by the government to bring prices down. They said that while the government was confident of keeping the price line down by the end of the year, things could spiral out of control by the summer of 2009.
Along with economics, the politics of the nuclear deal is also at play. The pro-deal camp maintains that the agreement should be pushed through to restore the governmentâs âiqbalâ (integrity) and undermine the BJPâs campaign of a âweak governmentâ and a âweaker PMâ even if it meant losing the Leftâs support.
The overtures to the Samajwadi Party were the Congressâs way of muddling the Leftâs âthird frontâ blueprint. The Samajwadi Party was one of the CPMâs steadfast allies.
But the sceptics are also sharpening their knives against a pre-scheduled election which is likely to figure at the next CWC meeting.
They feel that the allies might not play ball. Sharad Pawar, the NCP chief, has been quoted as saying that when it came to the crunch, the allies will want to remain in the government âuntil the last dayâ.
<b>The Congress leadership is also keen to keep the UPA intact, ârealising that the party may not be in a position to get a majority on its own in the near futureâ. âOur goal should be to strengthen ourselves and our allies,â said a source close to the leadership.
The leadership is also wary of calling early elections like the BJP did in 2004 and miscalculated the situation. But the irony is that the Congress is being forced to decide on the election date when it is down, unlike the BJP which was then basking in the âgloryâ of India Shining.</b>