06-19-2008, 06:15 AM
<b>Is it end-deal</b>?
<b>Countdown Begins: You canât go to Vienna, says Left, leaving UPA with only two options: either go for broke or give in, last a full term; next meeting June 25 </b>
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Express news service
Posted online: Thursday, June 19, 2008 at 0012 hrs IST
New Delhi, June 18
<b>What the Congress kept delaying finally happened today: its moment of reckoning has come, after the Left made it clear it would not let the Government go to Vienna to confirm the safeguards agreement, the key first piece in the operationalisation of the Indo-US nuclear deal. </b>
The partyâs top brass went into a huddle at 10, Janpath faced with perhaps the toughest choice since they took charge four years ago: give in to the Left and freeze the Indo-US nuclear deal to keep the government alive and a line with the Left open in an election year or seize the historic opportunity and stamp the partyâs commitment to the ânational interest.â
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who spoke to Congress President Sonia Gandhi on the phone, was learnt to have argued in favour of going ahead with the deal after the Left issued a statement that it was of the âfirm opinionâ that âthe government should not proceed to seek approval of the text of the India-specific safeguards agreement from the Board of Directors of the IAEA.â
This Left statement came a few hours after the government deferred todayâs UPA-Left meeting to June 25 as External Affairs Minister <b>Pranab Mukherjeeâs discussions with CPM general secretary Prakash Karat on Monday and Tuesday failed to make any headway. The Left also said it did not get the full text of the agreement. </b>
Official sources said that it had been conveyed to the Left that sharing the entire text would be a âbreach of faithâ as in the IAEA system, âan agreement is not an agreementâ until itâs taken to the Board of Governors.
CPM Politburo member <b>Sitaram Yechury had called on Congress President Sonia Gandhi last night to convey the Leftâs decision that it was prepared to pull the rug if the government went to Vienna. </b>
In the evening, Sonia Gandhi, her political secretary Ahmad Patel, Pranab Mukherjee and Defence Minister A K Antony weighed the governmentâs options.
<b>They were understood to have been unanimous that going ahead with the deal was in the national interest given that it ended Indiaâs nuclear isolation and would help address a growing economyâs energy needs and the severe shortage of fuel across the countryâs nuclear installations. </b> {ofcourse they would}
But the discussion within the party has invariably turned to the compulsions of politics in an election year, the ârisk of an early electionâ especially at a time when inflation is creeping towards double digits.
One of the views proffered was whether it was worth sacrificing the government when it was not even clear if the deal would become a reality through the different stages at the IAEA and the NSG. For, if the UPA proceeded to the IAEA, the Left was set to reduce it to a minority government, which would anyways undermine its legitimacy to ink the 123 agreement. Another view was that once the IAEA agreement and the NSG exemption are in place, the âmomentumâ of the deal â for then it would have gone from being an Indo-US agreement to one with over 40 countries â would push it over any obstacles.
While the Congress is apprehensive of the government being reduced to a minority, CPI General Secretary A B Bardhan suggested that the Left would not vote against the government if the BJP were to move a no-confidence motion against it. âWhy should we vote? Minority Governments have existed in the country in the past,â he told The Indian Express when asked whether the Left will vote against the government with the BJP.
<b>CPM sources said that a minority government cannot ink a major international agreement like this â a point that even Pranab Mukherjee has made earlier â and the nuclear deal would be âeffectively deadâ if the government became a minority. </b>
<b>After over an hour-long discussion, Congress leaders arrived at a decision to take all UPA partners on board before making or breaking the nuke deal at the UPA-Left meeting on June 25.</b> The UPA constituents were cautious in their reaction even as they supported the governmentâs stance. When Mukherjee telephoned RJD leader Lalu Prasad Yadav today, the latter was said to have said that the deal was in the national interest adding that it would be better if UPA and the Left stayed together.
âI am hopeful that this issue would be sorted out despite stiff opposition by the Left parties. Not only the Left parties but everybody in the UPA is concerned about the national interest. The issue does not pose any threat to the UPA government,â LJP chief Ram Vilas Paswan told The Indian Express.
DMK leader T R Baalu also called on Sonia Gandhi at 10, Janpath from where he left for the CPM office to meet Karat. âIt is in everybodyâs interest, in the interest of the nation that the government should not not fall on this issue,â Baalu told reporters when asked if the government should be sacrificed for the deal. âWe want everybody on board, the UPA constituents as well as the Left,â he added.
<b>Deal timetable: Why Yes/No needs to be decided this month</b>
<i>Indiaâs best chance to revive international momentum on the nuclear deal is during the PMâs visit to Japan on July 7-9 July for the G8 Summit. Even if the UPA decides to go ahead, it faces a tough timeline for which a political push will be needed from US President George W Bush. In the best case scenario, the timetable would be somthing like this: </i>
⢠Singh meets leaders from France, Russia, China, UK, Japan, Germany, South Africa, Brazil (all key NSG members) at G8; gets Bush to put his weight behind the deal as special meetings of IAEA Board and the NSG would have to be called.
⢠India completes formalities with IAEA, hopes Board of Governors will call special meeting in July.
⢠Special meeting of NSG convened immediately so that US can formally propose exemption for India. NSG will take at least two months, if not more, as many members have domestic non-proliferation laws and will need to discuss matters internally.
⢠Goal: US makes a Presidential determination and 123 goes to US Congress before it breaks up in September. This is vital as âfresh mattersâ not usually introduced during lameduck session in November (election month).
⢠Indications that Democrats would prefer Bush Administration to clear the deal; chances that 123 cleared in lameduck session.
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<b>Countdown Begins: You canât go to Vienna, says Left, leaving UPA with only two options: either go for broke or give in, last a full term; next meeting June 25 </b>
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Express news service
Posted online: Thursday, June 19, 2008 at 0012 hrs IST
New Delhi, June 18
<b>What the Congress kept delaying finally happened today: its moment of reckoning has come, after the Left made it clear it would not let the Government go to Vienna to confirm the safeguards agreement, the key first piece in the operationalisation of the Indo-US nuclear deal. </b>
The partyâs top brass went into a huddle at 10, Janpath faced with perhaps the toughest choice since they took charge four years ago: give in to the Left and freeze the Indo-US nuclear deal to keep the government alive and a line with the Left open in an election year or seize the historic opportunity and stamp the partyâs commitment to the ânational interest.â
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who spoke to Congress President Sonia Gandhi on the phone, was learnt to have argued in favour of going ahead with the deal after the Left issued a statement that it was of the âfirm opinionâ that âthe government should not proceed to seek approval of the text of the India-specific safeguards agreement from the Board of Directors of the IAEA.â
This Left statement came a few hours after the government deferred todayâs UPA-Left meeting to June 25 as External Affairs Minister <b>Pranab Mukherjeeâs discussions with CPM general secretary Prakash Karat on Monday and Tuesday failed to make any headway. The Left also said it did not get the full text of the agreement. </b>
Official sources said that it had been conveyed to the Left that sharing the entire text would be a âbreach of faithâ as in the IAEA system, âan agreement is not an agreementâ until itâs taken to the Board of Governors.
CPM Politburo member <b>Sitaram Yechury had called on Congress President Sonia Gandhi last night to convey the Leftâs decision that it was prepared to pull the rug if the government went to Vienna. </b>
In the evening, Sonia Gandhi, her political secretary Ahmad Patel, Pranab Mukherjee and Defence Minister A K Antony weighed the governmentâs options.
<b>They were understood to have been unanimous that going ahead with the deal was in the national interest given that it ended Indiaâs nuclear isolation and would help address a growing economyâs energy needs and the severe shortage of fuel across the countryâs nuclear installations. </b> {ofcourse they would}
But the discussion within the party has invariably turned to the compulsions of politics in an election year, the ârisk of an early electionâ especially at a time when inflation is creeping towards double digits.
One of the views proffered was whether it was worth sacrificing the government when it was not even clear if the deal would become a reality through the different stages at the IAEA and the NSG. For, if the UPA proceeded to the IAEA, the Left was set to reduce it to a minority government, which would anyways undermine its legitimacy to ink the 123 agreement. Another view was that once the IAEA agreement and the NSG exemption are in place, the âmomentumâ of the deal â for then it would have gone from being an Indo-US agreement to one with over 40 countries â would push it over any obstacles.
While the Congress is apprehensive of the government being reduced to a minority, CPI General Secretary A B Bardhan suggested that the Left would not vote against the government if the BJP were to move a no-confidence motion against it. âWhy should we vote? Minority Governments have existed in the country in the past,â he told The Indian Express when asked whether the Left will vote against the government with the BJP.
<b>CPM sources said that a minority government cannot ink a major international agreement like this â a point that even Pranab Mukherjee has made earlier â and the nuclear deal would be âeffectively deadâ if the government became a minority. </b>
<b>After over an hour-long discussion, Congress leaders arrived at a decision to take all UPA partners on board before making or breaking the nuke deal at the UPA-Left meeting on June 25.</b> The UPA constituents were cautious in their reaction even as they supported the governmentâs stance. When Mukherjee telephoned RJD leader Lalu Prasad Yadav today, the latter was said to have said that the deal was in the national interest adding that it would be better if UPA and the Left stayed together.
âI am hopeful that this issue would be sorted out despite stiff opposition by the Left parties. Not only the Left parties but everybody in the UPA is concerned about the national interest. The issue does not pose any threat to the UPA government,â LJP chief Ram Vilas Paswan told The Indian Express.
DMK leader T R Baalu also called on Sonia Gandhi at 10, Janpath from where he left for the CPM office to meet Karat. âIt is in everybodyâs interest, in the interest of the nation that the government should not not fall on this issue,â Baalu told reporters when asked if the government should be sacrificed for the deal. âWe want everybody on board, the UPA constituents as well as the Left,â he added.
<b>Deal timetable: Why Yes/No needs to be decided this month</b>
<i>Indiaâs best chance to revive international momentum on the nuclear deal is during the PMâs visit to Japan on July 7-9 July for the G8 Summit. Even if the UPA decides to go ahead, it faces a tough timeline for which a political push will be needed from US President George W Bush. In the best case scenario, the timetable would be somthing like this: </i>
⢠Singh meets leaders from France, Russia, China, UK, Japan, Germany, South Africa, Brazil (all key NSG members) at G8; gets Bush to put his weight behind the deal as special meetings of IAEA Board and the NSG would have to be called.
⢠India completes formalities with IAEA, hopes Board of Governors will call special meeting in July.
⢠Special meeting of NSG convened immediately so that US can formally propose exemption for India. NSG will take at least two months, if not more, as many members have domestic non-proliferation laws and will need to discuss matters internally.
⢠Goal: US makes a Presidential determination and 123 goes to US Congress before it breaks up in September. This is vital as âfresh mattersâ not usually introduced during lameduck session in November (election month).
⢠Indications that Democrats would prefer Bush Administration to clear the deal; chances that 123 cleared in lameduck session.
<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->