06-22-2008, 05:01 AM
This thread should be used analyze the political prospects of various groups/parties in different states. Interestingly it seems like general elections are around the corner even though I cannot believe until they happen.
<b>Here is my take regarding Andhra Pradesh:</b>
In the timeline before 80s, for any of the external agencies it was important to enable the defeat of Congress party in India for having a hold over India's destiny and geopolitics. In the current situation, these entities can have their say on India by keeping the congress in power. That is the important change of scenario and the background behind the political churning that happened (continue to happen) in Andhra Pradesh.
Evangelists, fringe left groups and various NGOs are working with a single point program of keeping Congress in power. None of these openly say that way. In fact some of them openly oppose congress. Naxalites also helped at various times. These groups are slush with external funds. Imagine if CBN did not lose AP then there is no UPA. Period. Try any other combination using the numbers from all other states minus AP then NDA would have been back to power. In the coming elections, if congress loses in AP then it is BJP+ that will be in power at center. Not only that, potentially Congress may not be even main opposition party of India. The stakes for congress in AP are extremely high.
Telangana sentiment was always there and it is neither high nor low at any time. Using elections there was never a Telangana based party that was able to force a separation. Various Telangana specific parties have come and gone. Same is the case with TRS and it was created with lots of fringe funding only to checkmate TDP. Congress used the anti incumbency, TRS, Left parties and naxalites to defeat TDP. One important factor for both TDP and Congress is if any of these parties openly support Telangana formation, one of them is bound to lose big time in other parts of AP and hence they will never blink.
The external entities are working in tandem with Congress and they conducted multiple surveys using NGOs, media and various agencies over the period since 1999. There is also growth of dhimmi urban crowd which is very unreliable and hence the need of JPN (Jayaprakash Narayan) types. This fellow who cannot get even deposits during elections gets highest airtime in various Telugu news channels. This should give a clue how the scenario is turning and also various players on the scene. This fellow today gave a "great interview" (as perceived by the dhimmi crowd) in support of Nuke deal. (Payback to the pay masters).
Congress:
As things stand today, Congress + Left + TRS will sweep the elections in the AP. However, congress has to do hard negotiations with Left and TRS. Don't even think about Left parting away from Congress at center will impact Congress + Left here. There is a central goal for everyone here and they will die to achieve that goal. The groups that will vote for Congress are erstwhile KHAM - (K - Most of Reddys + Government employees + blind congress supporters, H - Harijans (100% evangelized), A - all Tribes, M - Muslims). This will not be sufficient to win the election. TRS and Left have to help to win the rest in a two way contest. Many classes of Coastal AP and Rayalaseema have aligned with Congress during the last election. Anti incumbency will make some of them switch to TDP. This tradition of past 25 years seems to be breaking this year with the emergence of new political outfit led by Chiranjeevi. If the new outfit succeeds then Congress will win landslide on its own. The anti-incumbency bound swing will swing towards this new outfit rather than TDP.
TDP:
Previous term was the greatest term in terms of performance by any standards. While doing the large scale reforms, CBN made too many permanent enemies. 90% of government employees (no caste or gender divisions here) are against him and will do anything to make sure he is not returned. There are many JPN types ready to resort to various methods. In Telangana he is checkmated using Naxals and TRS by congress. He is getting into more mess here considering internal dissentions. TDP's main base is all the backward classes led by Kammas. If Chiranjeevi succeeds substantial section from these classes will move from TDP and that will ensure comfortable win for Congress. If this party does not make its moves in right way, there is a possibility this party can be wiped out of the scene. By aligning with BJP during the last term, he got the wrath of 90% of NGOs and the entire left establishment. He is overdoing to erase this but the anger is not gone. He is checkmated by Telangana sentiment and from the non-political establishment of the state. CBN is desperately gambling to move the left away from congress. Left might ditch him on the final day and go with congress.
BJP:
I cannot believe this party that consists of great strategists like Arun Jaytley could play the game this badly. Just because they have some pockets of influence in and around Hyderabad how could they think that AP could be achieved by Telangana separation? This is the fundamental mistake. The state leadership is filled with dhimmis. There is no leader worth the name from coastal and Rayalaseema regions. How in the world could they neglect such a large state? Telangana sentiment is double edged sword and they are not even on the negotiating table of alliances here. There are several opportunities to do the social engineering just like they did in Karnataka. In spite of several left leaning groups the population is very religious and temple bound and if you cannot make here then it is an insult to the BJP's intelligence. They need to think deeply and take some bold steps.
What should be the strategy if the congress juggernaut has to be stopped in AP:
It can be only achieved by TDP and no one else at this time. CBN should make some serious sacrifices and start to think out of the box. He should pass the baton to Telangana leaders of TDP and should checkmate the Congress by declaring a leader from Telangana as Chief Ministerial candidate. In addition, TDP should go on the front foot rather than back foot. Openly go with NDA and declare all the folks who touch congress are untouchables. There is 90% chance at this time this will not happen.
BJP should come out of slumber and abandon separate Telangana stance. Should try to get disgruntled elements from all parties and build to get at the least 10 to 15% of votes and be on the negotiating table. It should influence the TDP to take corrective measures.
<b>Here is my take regarding Andhra Pradesh:</b>
In the timeline before 80s, for any of the external agencies it was important to enable the defeat of Congress party in India for having a hold over India's destiny and geopolitics. In the current situation, these entities can have their say on India by keeping the congress in power. That is the important change of scenario and the background behind the political churning that happened (continue to happen) in Andhra Pradesh.
Evangelists, fringe left groups and various NGOs are working with a single point program of keeping Congress in power. None of these openly say that way. In fact some of them openly oppose congress. Naxalites also helped at various times. These groups are slush with external funds. Imagine if CBN did not lose AP then there is no UPA. Period. Try any other combination using the numbers from all other states minus AP then NDA would have been back to power. In the coming elections, if congress loses in AP then it is BJP+ that will be in power at center. Not only that, potentially Congress may not be even main opposition party of India. The stakes for congress in AP are extremely high.
Telangana sentiment was always there and it is neither high nor low at any time. Using elections there was never a Telangana based party that was able to force a separation. Various Telangana specific parties have come and gone. Same is the case with TRS and it was created with lots of fringe funding only to checkmate TDP. Congress used the anti incumbency, TRS, Left parties and naxalites to defeat TDP. One important factor for both TDP and Congress is if any of these parties openly support Telangana formation, one of them is bound to lose big time in other parts of AP and hence they will never blink.
The external entities are working in tandem with Congress and they conducted multiple surveys using NGOs, media and various agencies over the period since 1999. There is also growth of dhimmi urban crowd which is very unreliable and hence the need of JPN (Jayaprakash Narayan) types. This fellow who cannot get even deposits during elections gets highest airtime in various Telugu news channels. This should give a clue how the scenario is turning and also various players on the scene. This fellow today gave a "great interview" (as perceived by the dhimmi crowd) in support of Nuke deal. (Payback to the pay masters).
Congress:
As things stand today, Congress + Left + TRS will sweep the elections in the AP. However, congress has to do hard negotiations with Left and TRS. Don't even think about Left parting away from Congress at center will impact Congress + Left here. There is a central goal for everyone here and they will die to achieve that goal. The groups that will vote for Congress are erstwhile KHAM - (K - Most of Reddys + Government employees + blind congress supporters, H - Harijans (100% evangelized), A - all Tribes, M - Muslims). This will not be sufficient to win the election. TRS and Left have to help to win the rest in a two way contest. Many classes of Coastal AP and Rayalaseema have aligned with Congress during the last election. Anti incumbency will make some of them switch to TDP. This tradition of past 25 years seems to be breaking this year with the emergence of new political outfit led by Chiranjeevi. If the new outfit succeeds then Congress will win landslide on its own. The anti-incumbency bound swing will swing towards this new outfit rather than TDP.
TDP:
Previous term was the greatest term in terms of performance by any standards. While doing the large scale reforms, CBN made too many permanent enemies. 90% of government employees (no caste or gender divisions here) are against him and will do anything to make sure he is not returned. There are many JPN types ready to resort to various methods. In Telangana he is checkmated using Naxals and TRS by congress. He is getting into more mess here considering internal dissentions. TDP's main base is all the backward classes led by Kammas. If Chiranjeevi succeeds substantial section from these classes will move from TDP and that will ensure comfortable win for Congress. If this party does not make its moves in right way, there is a possibility this party can be wiped out of the scene. By aligning with BJP during the last term, he got the wrath of 90% of NGOs and the entire left establishment. He is overdoing to erase this but the anger is not gone. He is checkmated by Telangana sentiment and from the non-political establishment of the state. CBN is desperately gambling to move the left away from congress. Left might ditch him on the final day and go with congress.
BJP:
I cannot believe this party that consists of great strategists like Arun Jaytley could play the game this badly. Just because they have some pockets of influence in and around Hyderabad how could they think that AP could be achieved by Telangana separation? This is the fundamental mistake. The state leadership is filled with dhimmis. There is no leader worth the name from coastal and Rayalaseema regions. How in the world could they neglect such a large state? Telangana sentiment is double edged sword and they are not even on the negotiating table of alliances here. There are several opportunities to do the social engineering just like they did in Karnataka. In spite of several left leaning groups the population is very religious and temple bound and if you cannot make here then it is an insult to the BJP's intelligence. They need to think deeply and take some bold steps.
What should be the strategy if the congress juggernaut has to be stopped in AP:
It can be only achieved by TDP and no one else at this time. CBN should make some serious sacrifices and start to think out of the box. He should pass the baton to Telangana leaders of TDP and should checkmate the Congress by declaring a leader from Telangana as Chief Ministerial candidate. In addition, TDP should go on the front foot rather than back foot. Openly go with NDA and declare all the folks who touch congress are untouchables. There is 90% chance at this time this will not happen.
BJP should come out of slumber and abandon separate Telangana stance. Should try to get disgruntled elements from all parties and build to get at the least 10 to 15% of votes and be on the negotiating table. It should influence the TDP to take corrective measures.