06-29-2008, 04:24 AM
www.deccan.com
UP, Bihar may hold the key to next Lok Sabha
By Arun Nehru
The public is remarkably well-informed about the rise in foodgrain prices over the past three years and the global crisis generated by the surge in oil prices and I think, at this stage, no one in particular is interested in "sermons" or a blame game. The people expect sensible and firm governance from the ruling combine. This is a window of opportunity for the Opposition as price rise is a major issue and, combined with high expectation levels and the attendant anti-incumbency factor for the government in power, there is much to be done at all levels. The UPA is under pressure and the Congress and its allies have lost the Assembly elections in Bihar, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat, Tripura and now Karnataka, besides Meghalaya and Nagaland, over the last two years. The situation in Delhi is difficult as chief minister Sheila Dikshit may find it difficult to win a third term, and in Jharkhand a few Independents run the government and the Congress-JMM faces total disaster. The situation in Tamil Nadu for the DMK and the allies (many have left) is weak and in Andhra Pradesh, the situation is fluid with the Telangana issue and the revival of the TDP. Maharashtra is going the Gujarat way and a Shiv Sena-BJP majority is on the cards. Rajasthan (chief minister Vasundhara Raje has gained), Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh are BJP states and even if the Congress wins them, it will not compensate for the loss in other states. The BJP and the Congress are both theoretically between 100-120 seats but things are changing rapidly and the NDA or the "third front" look to gain on the UPA. It is no surprise then that none of the allies want early elections (November 2008 instead of February 2009), but do three months really make a difference?
Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, with 120 seats, are the keys to success. The BSP and Ms Mayawati will win 45-50 seats, the Samajwadi Party will win 20-25 seats and its alliance with the Congress, if it materialises, will help the Congress retain four or five strategic seats (Amethi, Rae Bareli, Rampur, Shahjehanpur and Jhansi). The BJP may fare better if upper caste votes start migrating from the Congress after an alliance with the SP, but I do not see the BJP and the Congress getting more than 10-12 seats between them. Bihar has 40 seats â Nitish Kumar and the JD(U)-BJP alliance will sweep the polls and Lalu Yadav will be lucky to retain even 10 seats in the state. In UP, the Congress has been losing its base from 1989, and in 1991 its alliance with the SP resulted in a loss of the minority vote to the SP and the dalit vote to the BSP. A sizeable number of brahmin and thakur votes migrated to the BSP and the SP over the years as the general voter, like a political party or a leader, wants a share in the "fruits of victory". The Congress and the BJP will both need a decade to regain lost ground, and for the moment both the BSP and the SP look strong. Both are run by "mass leaders" and whilst one may gain over the other in an election, it would be foolish for them to take each other for granted. The BSP will align with no one as it has an all-India vote and after the elections will go with anyone as it will have the "numbers" to get its rightful share. The SP today may align with the Congress for a "strategic" reason, but will stay with the Left and keep its options for the future open.
The nuclear issue has no value in electoral terms and the Congress is making a mistake in making this an issue. Media reports of the Prime Minister threatening to resign (inspired leaks to the media) will give the impression that he wants to abandon the sinking ship as inflation and price rise are major issues at the moment. Logic and fact at this stage are not important compared to "impressions" of good governance, and what we need at this time is not "panic" but firm and effective governance. My personal feeling is that the nuclear deal is critical for the future, and despite all the postures taken by the United States on the "time schedule", I donât believe the situation is lost if passed at a later stage. The US will also gain in financial terms, and after the current economic crisis, which is far from over (they may lose close to $2 trillion), they need the benefits accruing from the political and economic structure in India to sustain their economy in the future. The relevance of "cash flow" does not only apply to financial institutions but to governments as well, and if we do a forward study over the next decade, the notional cash flow generated by the BRIC countries will be crucial for the overall development of the global economy.
We have extraordinary talent at all levels and this is the time for that talent to perform and to deal with the current crisis. There are media reports and TV discussions about the Prime Minister threatening to resign. I do not know who has circulated these "silly" rumours as we are a country of a billion plus and there is no shortage of talent or numbers to fill any vacancy, and in politics, the higher you go, there are always "scores" of competent people ready to handle the "burden of governance." Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has integrity and a sound understanding of economics, but he lacks political clout (he is yet to win a Lok Sabha election) and, sadly for him, in the last six months of the government, he has had to deal with political issues and display his political authority. I think it is time for the Congress to wake up and start justifying its existence as the head of the UPA by fielding its political "superstars" as price rise and inflation are not likely to taper off till the elections and you need the services of an eminent astrologer to predict the direction of oil prices in the next three months.
UP, Bihar may hold the key to next Lok Sabha
By Arun Nehru
The public is remarkably well-informed about the rise in foodgrain prices over the past three years and the global crisis generated by the surge in oil prices and I think, at this stage, no one in particular is interested in "sermons" or a blame game. The people expect sensible and firm governance from the ruling combine. This is a window of opportunity for the Opposition as price rise is a major issue and, combined with high expectation levels and the attendant anti-incumbency factor for the government in power, there is much to be done at all levels. The UPA is under pressure and the Congress and its allies have lost the Assembly elections in Bihar, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat, Tripura and now Karnataka, besides Meghalaya and Nagaland, over the last two years. The situation in Delhi is difficult as chief minister Sheila Dikshit may find it difficult to win a third term, and in Jharkhand a few Independents run the government and the Congress-JMM faces total disaster. The situation in Tamil Nadu for the DMK and the allies (many have left) is weak and in Andhra Pradesh, the situation is fluid with the Telangana issue and the revival of the TDP. Maharashtra is going the Gujarat way and a Shiv Sena-BJP majority is on the cards. Rajasthan (chief minister Vasundhara Raje has gained), Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh are BJP states and even if the Congress wins them, it will not compensate for the loss in other states. The BJP and the Congress are both theoretically between 100-120 seats but things are changing rapidly and the NDA or the "third front" look to gain on the UPA. It is no surprise then that none of the allies want early elections (November 2008 instead of February 2009), but do three months really make a difference?
Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, with 120 seats, are the keys to success. The BSP and Ms Mayawati will win 45-50 seats, the Samajwadi Party will win 20-25 seats and its alliance with the Congress, if it materialises, will help the Congress retain four or five strategic seats (Amethi, Rae Bareli, Rampur, Shahjehanpur and Jhansi). The BJP may fare better if upper caste votes start migrating from the Congress after an alliance with the SP, but I do not see the BJP and the Congress getting more than 10-12 seats between them. Bihar has 40 seats â Nitish Kumar and the JD(U)-BJP alliance will sweep the polls and Lalu Yadav will be lucky to retain even 10 seats in the state. In UP, the Congress has been losing its base from 1989, and in 1991 its alliance with the SP resulted in a loss of the minority vote to the SP and the dalit vote to the BSP. A sizeable number of brahmin and thakur votes migrated to the BSP and the SP over the years as the general voter, like a political party or a leader, wants a share in the "fruits of victory". The Congress and the BJP will both need a decade to regain lost ground, and for the moment both the BSP and the SP look strong. Both are run by "mass leaders" and whilst one may gain over the other in an election, it would be foolish for them to take each other for granted. The BSP will align with no one as it has an all-India vote and after the elections will go with anyone as it will have the "numbers" to get its rightful share. The SP today may align with the Congress for a "strategic" reason, but will stay with the Left and keep its options for the future open.
The nuclear issue has no value in electoral terms and the Congress is making a mistake in making this an issue. Media reports of the Prime Minister threatening to resign (inspired leaks to the media) will give the impression that he wants to abandon the sinking ship as inflation and price rise are major issues at the moment. Logic and fact at this stage are not important compared to "impressions" of good governance, and what we need at this time is not "panic" but firm and effective governance. My personal feeling is that the nuclear deal is critical for the future, and despite all the postures taken by the United States on the "time schedule", I donât believe the situation is lost if passed at a later stage. The US will also gain in financial terms, and after the current economic crisis, which is far from over (they may lose close to $2 trillion), they need the benefits accruing from the political and economic structure in India to sustain their economy in the future. The relevance of "cash flow" does not only apply to financial institutions but to governments as well, and if we do a forward study over the next decade, the notional cash flow generated by the BRIC countries will be crucial for the overall development of the global economy.
We have extraordinary talent at all levels and this is the time for that talent to perform and to deal with the current crisis. There are media reports and TV discussions about the Prime Minister threatening to resign. I do not know who has circulated these "silly" rumours as we are a country of a billion plus and there is no shortage of talent or numbers to fill any vacancy, and in politics, the higher you go, there are always "scores" of competent people ready to handle the "burden of governance." Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has integrity and a sound understanding of economics, but he lacks political clout (he is yet to win a Lok Sabha election) and, sadly for him, in the last six months of the government, he has had to deal with political issues and display his political authority. I think it is time for the Congress to wake up and start justifying its existence as the head of the UPA by fielding its political "superstars" as price rise and inflation are not likely to taper off till the elections and you need the services of an eminent astrologer to predict the direction of oil prices in the next three months.