07-01-2008, 05:54 AM
<b> Indo US Nuclear deal we gain or loose ?</b>
http://www.bharatwaves.com/portal/modules/....php?itemid=151
Published by Brigadier Arun Bajpai (Retd) [brigarunbajpai] on 2008/3/31 (427 reads)
âIndia is a responsible state with advanced nuclear technology who should have same advantages as other nuclear statesâ. These memorable words uttered by American President Bush on 18 July 05 during a joint press conference hosted on the occasion of visit of the Indian Prime Minister Man Mohan Singh to US, have in one stroke achieved for India the status of Sixth Nuclear power in the world, a recognition which Indiaâs first peaceful nuclear test conducted in May 1974 and then again five tests in 1998 could not deliver. In international relations nothing comes free. The question which now comes to fore is, what price have we to pay to achieve this Nuclear power status, even though a de facto one.
India came under American nuclear non proliferation scanner immediately after it conducted its first peaceful nuclear test in 1974.For last four decades Indian nuclear programme has functioned under American applied nuclear and missile technology transfer ban. Biggest problem the fast growing Indian economy faces today is the rising energy demand. So far India has been meeting its skyrocketing energy requirements by importing oil from gulf countries. However oil prices in world market are now touching the all time high of 102 dollars a barrel and this source of energy has become a very expensive proposition. Abundant coal availability in India is not a viable proposition due to environmental hazards. With Global warming and melting of Glaciers the Hydroelectric production In India has also more or less peaked. Only other cheap energy option left to sustain the current growth rate of Indian economy is the nuclear energy.
Currently Indian civilian nuclear energy programme produces 2400 MW of energy. Limited nuclear fuel availability in India can at best enhance the indigenous nuclear energy production to a maximum of 10000 MW.To compliment other resources The minimum Indian nuclear energy requirement is estimated to be 40000 MW. Only way India can meet this demand is by importing the nuclear fuel from US and other nuclear capable countries in a big way. Additionally Indian nuclear energy plants are getting old and fingers are being raised at their safety. These Indian energy woes are known to America.
By granting the de facto Sixth nuclear power status to India, US has very cleverly put an end to Indiaâs ambition of becoming a military super power one day. India now per force will have to abide by all those conditions that are binding on the current nuclear capable states. The first among them is the US demand that India must separate its military and civilian nuclear installations and put its civilian nuclear installations under IAEA safeguards to be eligible for latest nuclear technology and fuel transfers to India. US very glibly says that it has no objection to what India does with its military related nuclear installations.
Unlike US, Russia and even China, whose nuclear doctrines are based on the stockpiling concept, that is to say their military nuclear installations continuously keep on producing nuclear warheads, either to up grade the current ones, replace the old ones or add on to the current holdings, India follows the philosophy of Minimum Nuclear Deterrent (MND). In MND the nuclear warheads are produced, based on assessment of current nuclear threats. In the case of India the perceived threats from China and Pakistan. That is why in India the nuclear installations follow an integrated approach incorporating both civil and military requirements under one roof.
Once India separates its 21 nuclear reactors into military and civil watertight compartments then its military warheads producing capability will automatically go down. Same will be the case with its military oriented nuclear research capability. Besides civilian and military oriented research will not be able to complement each other. So now if India wants to retain its current military oriented nuclear capability then it will have to spend enormous amount of money to recreate new military facilities. Needless to say this measure will not be cost effective.
In other words Indiaâs Nuclear deterrent will not only remain minimum but will also be much behind times. Add to this the second international obligation of moratorium on nuclear related tests and the third demand of US of multilateral Fissile Material Cut Off Treaty, and the picture is complete. After this Indo âUS deal, Indian nuclear threat will remain small and regional for a long time to come not materially affecting the Super power like US.
On the gains side India gets the latest technology in civilian nuclear energy generation as also the fuel for the same. This will take care of Indiaâs energy requirements that are currently paramount for the country at this stage of development and for an economic Super power future, which India can still become.
On the military side, as against number of warheads and their level of sophistication, India should now concentrate on the modernization of delivery means, their longer range and accuracy. Both China and Pakistan should be rest assured that Indian nuclear capable missiles would hit them with pinpoint accuracy along their entire length and breadth. This capability itself will be a great nuclear deterrent because no country in its sane mind can afford the risk of even one nuclear bomb being dropped within its territory.
In addition India should develop foolproof second-strike capability. Case in point being the nuclear submarines and nuclear capable missiles that can be fired under water from them. These nuclear submarines with nuclear tipped missiles cruising underwater near the target country are most deadly weapons to dissuade boldest of bold countries to desist from taking nuclear war course. These measures if taken by India will to a large extent offset the loss of nuclear military capability that will result due to bifurcation of civil and military nuclear installations.
Apart from energy needs we will be very big gainer in the field of defence production and modernization of Indian Armed Forces. Be it Indian Fighter Aircraft project Tejas, Arjun Tanks, short range missiles, nuclear powered submarines, long range artillery guns, all these indigenous arms production programmes of ours are running 10 to 12 years behind schedule due to high technology transfer restrictions imposed on us by US and other developed countries after our Pokhran nuclear test of 1974. If the Indo âUS deal is through, then these restrictions will be lifted. Instead of biggest arms importer country in the world we may then grab a big share of world arms production and export market, in addition to equipping our Armed forces with latest weapons produced at home only with reasonable costs. In civilian advanced technology areas like Indian Space And Research Organization, Aircraft and ship building fields also we will benefit.
In the final analysis despite certain disadvantages this deal is beneficial to India and the current UPA Government should go for it even if the Left withdraws support, as they have been threatening for the last six months. The said deal has already cleared all the international hurdles and now only has to go through the approval of 45 Nation Nuclear supplier Group and the American Congress, both being mere formalities. With presidential elections being held in America in November this year, this deal must reach US Congress by July the latest beyond which they will go in election mode and this opportunity for India will die its own death.
Indian Left has earlier also shown where their loyalties lie when way back in 1962, they had dubbed the Chinese Invasion of India as correct. This time also it is China that will be at the receiving end if the Deal goes through and India emerges as sixth nuclear power. Another reason why they are opposing this deal is the minority vote bank for whose perceived pleasure they threw out the writer Tslima Nasrin from West Bengal recently. As the minority community is currently annoyed with Bush they feel that this deal will adversely affect their vote count. What our comrades fail to understand is that time and again minority community in India has shown that they are Indian first and anything else later.
http://www.bharatwaves.com/portal/modules/....php?itemid=151
Published by Brigadier Arun Bajpai (Retd) [brigarunbajpai] on 2008/3/31 (427 reads)
âIndia is a responsible state with advanced nuclear technology who should have same advantages as other nuclear statesâ. These memorable words uttered by American President Bush on 18 July 05 during a joint press conference hosted on the occasion of visit of the Indian Prime Minister Man Mohan Singh to US, have in one stroke achieved for India the status of Sixth Nuclear power in the world, a recognition which Indiaâs first peaceful nuclear test conducted in May 1974 and then again five tests in 1998 could not deliver. In international relations nothing comes free. The question which now comes to fore is, what price have we to pay to achieve this Nuclear power status, even though a de facto one.
India came under American nuclear non proliferation scanner immediately after it conducted its first peaceful nuclear test in 1974.For last four decades Indian nuclear programme has functioned under American applied nuclear and missile technology transfer ban. Biggest problem the fast growing Indian economy faces today is the rising energy demand. So far India has been meeting its skyrocketing energy requirements by importing oil from gulf countries. However oil prices in world market are now touching the all time high of 102 dollars a barrel and this source of energy has become a very expensive proposition. Abundant coal availability in India is not a viable proposition due to environmental hazards. With Global warming and melting of Glaciers the Hydroelectric production In India has also more or less peaked. Only other cheap energy option left to sustain the current growth rate of Indian economy is the nuclear energy.
Currently Indian civilian nuclear energy programme produces 2400 MW of energy. Limited nuclear fuel availability in India can at best enhance the indigenous nuclear energy production to a maximum of 10000 MW.To compliment other resources The minimum Indian nuclear energy requirement is estimated to be 40000 MW. Only way India can meet this demand is by importing the nuclear fuel from US and other nuclear capable countries in a big way. Additionally Indian nuclear energy plants are getting old and fingers are being raised at their safety. These Indian energy woes are known to America.
By granting the de facto Sixth nuclear power status to India, US has very cleverly put an end to Indiaâs ambition of becoming a military super power one day. India now per force will have to abide by all those conditions that are binding on the current nuclear capable states. The first among them is the US demand that India must separate its military and civilian nuclear installations and put its civilian nuclear installations under IAEA safeguards to be eligible for latest nuclear technology and fuel transfers to India. US very glibly says that it has no objection to what India does with its military related nuclear installations.
Unlike US, Russia and even China, whose nuclear doctrines are based on the stockpiling concept, that is to say their military nuclear installations continuously keep on producing nuclear warheads, either to up grade the current ones, replace the old ones or add on to the current holdings, India follows the philosophy of Minimum Nuclear Deterrent (MND). In MND the nuclear warheads are produced, based on assessment of current nuclear threats. In the case of India the perceived threats from China and Pakistan. That is why in India the nuclear installations follow an integrated approach incorporating both civil and military requirements under one roof.
Once India separates its 21 nuclear reactors into military and civil watertight compartments then its military warheads producing capability will automatically go down. Same will be the case with its military oriented nuclear research capability. Besides civilian and military oriented research will not be able to complement each other. So now if India wants to retain its current military oriented nuclear capability then it will have to spend enormous amount of money to recreate new military facilities. Needless to say this measure will not be cost effective.
In other words Indiaâs Nuclear deterrent will not only remain minimum but will also be much behind times. Add to this the second international obligation of moratorium on nuclear related tests and the third demand of US of multilateral Fissile Material Cut Off Treaty, and the picture is complete. After this Indo âUS deal, Indian nuclear threat will remain small and regional for a long time to come not materially affecting the Super power like US.
On the gains side India gets the latest technology in civilian nuclear energy generation as also the fuel for the same. This will take care of Indiaâs energy requirements that are currently paramount for the country at this stage of development and for an economic Super power future, which India can still become.
On the military side, as against number of warheads and their level of sophistication, India should now concentrate on the modernization of delivery means, their longer range and accuracy. Both China and Pakistan should be rest assured that Indian nuclear capable missiles would hit them with pinpoint accuracy along their entire length and breadth. This capability itself will be a great nuclear deterrent because no country in its sane mind can afford the risk of even one nuclear bomb being dropped within its territory.
In addition India should develop foolproof second-strike capability. Case in point being the nuclear submarines and nuclear capable missiles that can be fired under water from them. These nuclear submarines with nuclear tipped missiles cruising underwater near the target country are most deadly weapons to dissuade boldest of bold countries to desist from taking nuclear war course. These measures if taken by India will to a large extent offset the loss of nuclear military capability that will result due to bifurcation of civil and military nuclear installations.
Apart from energy needs we will be very big gainer in the field of defence production and modernization of Indian Armed Forces. Be it Indian Fighter Aircraft project Tejas, Arjun Tanks, short range missiles, nuclear powered submarines, long range artillery guns, all these indigenous arms production programmes of ours are running 10 to 12 years behind schedule due to high technology transfer restrictions imposed on us by US and other developed countries after our Pokhran nuclear test of 1974. If the Indo âUS deal is through, then these restrictions will be lifted. Instead of biggest arms importer country in the world we may then grab a big share of world arms production and export market, in addition to equipping our Armed forces with latest weapons produced at home only with reasonable costs. In civilian advanced technology areas like Indian Space And Research Organization, Aircraft and ship building fields also we will benefit.
In the final analysis despite certain disadvantages this deal is beneficial to India and the current UPA Government should go for it even if the Left withdraws support, as they have been threatening for the last six months. The said deal has already cleared all the international hurdles and now only has to go through the approval of 45 Nation Nuclear supplier Group and the American Congress, both being mere formalities. With presidential elections being held in America in November this year, this deal must reach US Congress by July the latest beyond which they will go in election mode and this opportunity for India will die its own death.
Indian Left has earlier also shown where their loyalties lie when way back in 1962, they had dubbed the Chinese Invasion of India as correct. This time also it is China that will be at the receiving end if the Deal goes through and India emerges as sixth nuclear power. Another reason why they are opposing this deal is the minority vote bank for whose perceived pleasure they threw out the writer Tslima Nasrin from West Bengal recently. As the minority community is currently annoyed with Bush they feel that this deal will adversely affect their vote count. What our comrades fail to understand is that time and again minority community in India has shown that they are Indian first and anything else later.