India - China: Relations And Developments-2

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Forecast: China to top medals table

Posted by Tim Johnson
Mon Jun 23, 4:00 AM ET

You don’t need to wait and see which nation will win the most medals at the Beijing Summer Games. The wizards have already spoken.
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Here is what they say: China will win the most medals (88), followed by the United States (87) and Russia (79).

If true, this will mark the first time China has ever topped the medals table at an Olympic Games.

The predictions come from economists at PriceWaterhouseCoopers, who regularly handicap the Olympic Games. Click here for the press release issued Monday.

The accounting firm says China has won significant advantage this year by being the host of the Summer Games, as well as its strong government support for sports and its growing economic strength.

“In general, the number of medals won increases with the population and economic wealth of the country,” said John Hawksworth, a macroeconomist who is the report’s author. “David can sometimes defeat Goliath in the Olympic arena, although superpowers like the US, China and Russia continue to dominate the top of the medals table.”

Among other conclusions of the report: “As the host nation in Beijing and an economy which has grown very strongly since 2004, the medal ‘target’ of 88 for China according to our model is much higher than its actual medal totals in Athens (63) or Sydney (59); in fact, the model predicts that China may be very slightly ahead of the US (87), although this difference is well within the margin of error of the model so the race for top place is really too close to call based on this analysis.”

By way of comparison, here are PWC’s projected list of top medal-winning countries. The second number is how many medals each won in Athens in 2004.

1. China 88 63
2. United States 87 103
3. Russia 79 92
4. Germany 43 48
5. Australia 41 49
6. Japan 34 37
7. France 30 33
8. Italy 29 32
9. Britain 28 30
10. South Korea 27 30

China has attempted to tamp down down expectations it will sweep up medals.

Deputy Sports Minister Cui Dalin said last August: "America and Russia are stronger. We are far behind, especially in athletics, swimming and water sports. In the sports where we are traditionally strong, we have little space for improvement. America and Russia are in a leading group of their own, we are trying to be the leaders of the second group."

Then in March at a press conference I attended, he said: “We've got to take a pretty sober, objective view toward this. Overall, we're not a big sporting nation.”

He went on to say: “In the competition altogether, the United States and Russia are still well above our level.”

Any bets on who is right?