<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--> WTI are the core of the INC and used to shelter in the INC umbrella with the WMI holding it up. Now the price that SP is demanding could shake the whole umbrella structure for he wants national status. In the UNPA, CBN is shaken up with the adamant attitude of SP. For starters as to what can SP do, he has put Kalam saheb in the sectrain bucket and no one is protesting. One who was known as Kalam Iyer! Once again UP has become the key. The NRI groups are rallying to SP aid (thats what Amar singh was doing in US for three weeks) as they think its now or never. INC wanted SP support in case Left withdraws and the price is too steep for it might mean irrelevance in the long run.
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I think what the congress is doing is absolutely right thing. I applaud Manmohan Singh for showing leadership on the Nuke Deal. This one is something that is so absolutely important to India's entire future, the Prime Minister clearly recognizes that this absolutely needs to be done and that it is his sacred duty to get it done, even if the govt falls in the bargain. Full marks to Sonia Gandhi on supporting him to the hilt and not wavering on this as well. It is far too easy to waver /compromise with supreme national interest for the fish and loaves of office and hope to save the govt. Sonia Gandhi hasn't done that and they are calling the left's bluff.
Also strategically, the Congress is doing the absolute right thing. The road to power in Delhi is via UP and Bihar. Congress has a strong alliance in Bihar with Lalu and it needs a similar alliance in UP. Lets face reality. Congress in UP has been reduced to a status like Cong in TN. A sizeable vote share , that could possibly swing the fortune in favor of someone, but never enough to win alone. BSP /Mayawati are mortal enemies of congress, just like Deve Gowda is in Karnataka. They are going for the same, social base and BSP's entire growth is at the expense of the Congress. BSP is a parasitic vine that drinks from sap of the Congress tree , continuously weakening it and eventually killing it. The only person Congress can ally with is Samajwadi Party, which gets it's vote from a social base which never voted for Congress in any case!.. Congress CANNOT ally with BSP, but is sure as hell can ally with the SP. In fact, I would go as far to say that SP and Congress are natural allies , not SP and BSP as the JNU "subaltern" studies wallahs would have you think. They both need each other. I am glad that this entire nuclear deal is leading to a realigning of India's politics.
I think it is a great think. If Congress comes back to power because of this, they will absolutely deserve it, because they will have proven that they think first and foremost about India's national interest and not about spiting GW Bush or about "Imperialism" or some woolly headed "ideology" / China, like the cretins in the left.
It will be great if Indian politics coalesce around two large "umberella" formations., one to the left and other to the right of center. That way tiny groups like JDS get massive leverage and do tremendous damage like what happened in the paralaysis in governance in Bangalore for the past 4 years or so. It is to the credit of the UPA, that despite having "supporters" like the left , they still managed to have some semblence of governance for the past 4 years , and not the Karnataka like situation.
If the 123 deal leads to Congress coming back in the next elections.. So be it. It will be well earned !
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Vina:
Don't be so euphoric my friend and praise MMS/Sonia to 5th heavens. We have debated endlessly, and this deal is at best dog bones from Bush and at worst India beomes nuke nude (more likely). Plus, once MMS signs, mark my word, TSP will get a deal of sorts, and with both South Asia boys nuke nude, Unkil will calibrate both so either doens't get uppity with an arms sale here and arms sale there to keep the balance which includes TSP keeping India in check with their LeT/Jaish boys. If Congress comes back to power, the same arguments will be given: "India will be a global superpower of the 21st century" to give Kashmir de-facto independence (notice how MMS supinely caved in to the TSP-inspired Kashmiri Muslim scum violently protesting a small piece of land allocated to assist Hindu pilgrims in their ardous journey to Amarnath cave). If MMS has his way through this deal and Congress continues its reigns, and everything goes along the best case rosy path through his deal, it will be case of no war, no peace for some time, giving enough room for TSP to recoup and be a royal pain in India's you know where. Forget about taking on China and beyond. In fact, I would argue that without a strong nuke-armed military and a nationalist ideology, "globalization" (pax Americana) may well turn India into a loose "South Asian" federation as many elites both in India and west want including MMS/Sonia. Some global power of the 21st century, my foot.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Folks, there is no doubt that India needs a "deal", she needs the Uranium, a few reactors, etc to tide her through. The discussions related to the "deal", rightly or wrongly, deal with what are the supporting clauses in the deal - are they worth it. That is an Indian view - the deal AND the supporting clauses. (Which is what ldev was explaining a few pages ago - and rightly so.)
There is an American view - just like the Indian view. The American view is about proliferation. They care to hoots about India and power or economy or what ever. Proliferation is what matters to them - and rightly so.
Thus this "deal" to them is a first step in the direction of total non-proliferation. The Henry K visit to India was not that of a Statesman. It was part of a multiple people visiting India and trying to twist arms and bribe and cajole - all part of the game, nothing wrong, all politicians do that. There were a team of NRIs who were part of this effort and they have produced a glossy too mark the event. Again, not a knock on them, they are part of the process.
This too is OK provided Chicom and TSP gets roped in. Which is where the challenge lies. India will gladly wrap up her strategic efforts IF the rest of them do so too - verifiably do so.
So, do not expect MMS to walk away, for he cannot. The noose of non-proliferation can only be tightened. Once tightened, it stays there until the next chance to tighten.
My read:
IAEA and NSG are only temporary acronyms to achieve this end. The haves within them are scared crap about nukes in bad guys hand (and rightly so) and others are interested in keeping their business going. So, IMHO, until Uranium is totally milked (much like oil) they will not go to Thorium (India has the 4th largest amount of Th). So, not just from a proliferation perspective, but from a business one too, India can expect the IAEA to be very intrusive, even with a separation plan. Then the issue becomes, IF India (or for that matter any other country) has a army and an air force.
Expect these acronyms to morph into others in the near future.
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Firstly, India doesnt get nuke nude. I simply dont see how. The Indian arsenal and facilities are separated anyways from the deal. It doesnt stand to reason. We persisted with the option even when we were far weaker and endured sanctions on it for like 30 odd years. Now we are far stronger, and we voluntarily go nuke nude? .. No way. I think the India specific agreements recognize India's de facto nuclear status. They couldn't open the CTBT and let india in as a nuclear power. But this bypasses that. No wonder it got the NPA's goat. India cannot tie it's future to imported hydrocarbon.. The recent hike in oil prices is equivalent to the entire tax base of the Indian govt ..around 10% of the GDP. That is clearly unsustainable and we need to move to other energy options , including nuclear. In fact, France, South Korea , Japan, Denmark, Scandinavia and Germany should be the models for India's energy policy going forward. Coal and Oil must be out.
No one is going to sign any nuke deal with TSP , given how unstable it is . Heck.. Looks like Peshawar is in danger of falling to the Taliban! I am willing to bet that the Chinese wont do so either, going forward. They have been burned badly by the Xerox khan's nuclear walmart enterprise and it is the Chinese weapon design that keeps turning up in places like Iran to Libya like a bad nightmare. The world knows that. TSP's leverage was that it had fellow rogue states like North Korea and former rogues like China to trade with. Now North Korea is neutralized (the unspoken /unheralded triumph of GW Bush's nuclear policy..add Libya to that list, Iran is a work in progress that shows all sign of capitulating soon, despite all the bluster)..Now with fellow rogues knocked out and TSP/China nuke linkages cut off, TSP has no leverage.. it will be squeezed and contained.
Quote:
If Congress comes back to power, the same arguments will be given: "India will be a global superpower of the 21st century" to give Kashmir de-facto independence (notice how MMS supinely caved in to the TSP-inspired Kashmiri Muslim scum violently protesting a small piece of land allocated to assist Hindu pilgrims in their ardous journey to Amarnath cave). If MMS has his way through this deal and Congress continues its reigns, and everything goes along the best case rosy path through his deal, it will be case of no war, no peace for some time, giving enough room for TSP to recoup and be a royal pain in India's you know where. Forget about taking on China and beyond. In fact, I would argue that without a strong nuke-armed military and a nationalist ideology, "globalization" (pax Americana) may well turn India into a loose "South Asian" federation as many elites both in India and west want including MMS/Sonia. Some global power of the 21st century, my foot.
The way Kashmir will get settled when the gap (economic, social, cultural, political and general well being) between India and TSP widen to such a level that even pretend equal-equal would be laughably silly. We are not there yet, but will be there in another 15 to 20 years. Eventually TSP elites and society (or if they have anything called that there) will realize that the atavistic conflict with India is neither necessary nor desirable and profitable, that is when there can be a settlement. India's primary job is simple . Keep growing strongly and strengthen society and get the health, education and wellness up, while maintaining a strong armed force that deters any misadventure from TSP and China or anyone else. Once we are in the USD 5000 /7000 percapita range and poverty is reduced to 5% or less (around today's Turkey's levels),. (Korea was there like 10 years ago.)..we would be over the "hump" and the most serious challenges to India would have been surmounted. That is the 2020 target..
Once that happens USD 5k to 7k range per captia and 5% poverty, the entire neighborhood will be different. Conflict with India will be idiotic for any of the smaller neighbors. Think of it.. You are sitting next to one of the largest most attractive markets in the world.. with decent technology and strong manufacturing and services base .. what would you rather do.. fight with it or trade with it , that too when India's defense forces are far stronger than your's ? The dynamic would be different.
Pax Americana is over / not the same anymore. We will be in a different kind of place in 25 years from now. It will be a mutli polar world where hopefully large emerging BRIC countries get absorbed into the international system without too much disrpution. There is no need to "take on" the Chinese without any good reason. China too will change and evolve and will face "encirclement" by Unkil, Taiwan, Japan , India and Asean if it is disruptive and threatening.
Hopefully, the next 50 years will be a year of peace and growth , and very different from the previous 50 years. for that you have to strike at the root of conflict... OIL.. Get away from the oil addiction and you will be fine. That is why the Nuke deal is so important and kudos to MMS and Sonia for realizing that and seeing it through.
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I think what the congress is doing is absolutely right thing. I applaud Manmohan Singh for showing leadership on the Nuke Deal. This one is something that is so absolutely important to India's entire future, the Prime Minister clearly recognizes that this absolutely needs to be done and that it is his sacred duty to get it done, even if the govt falls in the bargain. Full marks to Sonia Gandhi on supporting him to the hilt and not wavering on this as well. It is far too easy to waver /compromise with supreme national interest for the fish and loaves of office and hope to save the govt. Sonia Gandhi hasn't done that and they are calling the left's bluff.
Also strategically, the Congress is doing the absolute right thing. The road to power in Delhi is via UP and Bihar. Congress has a strong alliance in Bihar with Lalu and it needs a similar alliance in UP. Lets face reality. Congress in UP has been reduced to a status like Cong in TN. A sizeable vote share , that could possibly swing the fortune in favor of someone, but never enough to win alone. BSP /Mayawati are mortal enemies of congress, just like Deve Gowda is in Karnataka. They are going for the same, social base and BSP's entire growth is at the expense of the Congress. BSP is a parasitic vine that drinks from sap of the Congress tree , continuously weakening it and eventually killing it. The only person Congress can ally with is Samajwadi Party, which gets it's vote from a social base which never voted for Congress in any case!.. Congress CANNOT ally with BSP, but is sure as hell can ally with the SP. In fact, I would go as far to say that SP and Congress are natural allies , not SP and BSP as the JNU "subaltern" studies wallahs would have you think. They both need each other. I am glad that this entire nuclear deal is leading to a realigning of India's politics.
I think it is a great think. If Congress comes back to power because of this, they will absolutely deserve it, because they will have proven that they think first and foremost about India's national interest and not about spiting GW Bush or about "Imperialism" or some woolly headed "ideology" / China, like the cretins in the left.
It will be great if Indian politics coalesce around two large "umberella" formations., one to the left and other to the right of center. That way tiny groups like JDS get massive leverage and do tremendous damage like what happened in the paralaysis in governance in Bangalore for the past 4 years or so. It is to the credit of the UPA, that despite having "supporters" like the left , they still managed to have some semblence of governance for the past 4 years , and not the Karnataka like situation.
If the 123 deal leads to Congress coming back in the next elections.. So be it. It will be well earned !
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Vina:
Don't be so euphoric my friend and praise MMS/Sonia to 5th heavens. We have debated endlessly, and this deal is at best dog bones from Bush and at worst India beomes nuke nude (more likely). Plus, once MMS signs, mark my word, TSP will get a deal of sorts, and with both South Asia boys nuke nude, Unkil will calibrate both so either doens't get uppity with an arms sale here and arms sale there to keep the balance which includes TSP keeping India in check with their LeT/Jaish boys. If Congress comes back to power, the same arguments will be given: "India will be a global superpower of the 21st century" to give Kashmir de-facto independence (notice how MMS supinely caved in to the TSP-inspired Kashmiri Muslim scum violently protesting a small piece of land allocated to assist Hindu pilgrims in their ardous journey to Amarnath cave). If MMS has his way through this deal and Congress continues its reigns, and everything goes along the best case rosy path through his deal, it will be case of no war, no peace for some time, giving enough room for TSP to recoup and be a royal pain in India's you know where. Forget about taking on China and beyond. In fact, I would argue that without a strong nuke-armed military and a nationalist ideology, "globalization" (pax Americana) may well turn India into a loose "South Asian" federation as many elites both in India and west want including MMS/Sonia. Some global power of the 21st century, my foot.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Folks, there is no doubt that India needs a "deal", she needs the Uranium, a few reactors, etc to tide her through. The discussions related to the "deal", rightly or wrongly, deal with what are the supporting clauses in the deal - are they worth it. That is an Indian view - the deal AND the supporting clauses. (Which is what ldev was explaining a few pages ago - and rightly so.)
There is an American view - just like the Indian view. The American view is about proliferation. They care to hoots about India and power or economy or what ever. Proliferation is what matters to them - and rightly so.
Thus this "deal" to them is a first step in the direction of total non-proliferation. The Henry K visit to India was not that of a Statesman. It was part of a multiple people visiting India and trying to twist arms and bribe and cajole - all part of the game, nothing wrong, all politicians do that. There were a team of NRIs who were part of this effort and they have produced a glossy too mark the event. Again, not a knock on them, they are part of the process.
This too is OK provided Chicom and TSP gets roped in. Which is where the challenge lies. India will gladly wrap up her strategic efforts IF the rest of them do so too - verifiably do so.
So, do not expect MMS to walk away, for he cannot. The noose of non-proliferation can only be tightened. Once tightened, it stays there until the next chance to tighten.
My read:
IAEA and NSG are only temporary acronyms to achieve this end. The haves within them are scared crap about nukes in bad guys hand (and rightly so) and others are interested in keeping their business going. So, IMHO, until Uranium is totally milked (much like oil) they will not go to Thorium (India has the 4th largest amount of Th). So, not just from a proliferation perspective, but from a business one too, India can expect the IAEA to be very intrusive, even with a separation plan. Then the issue becomes, IF India (or for that matter any other country) has a army and an air force.
Expect these acronyms to morph into others in the near future.
<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->
Firstly, India doesnt get nuke nude. I simply dont see how. The Indian arsenal and facilities are separated anyways from the deal. It doesnt stand to reason. We persisted with the option even when we were far weaker and endured sanctions on it for like 30 odd years. Now we are far stronger, and we voluntarily go nuke nude? .. No way. I think the India specific agreements recognize India's de facto nuclear status. They couldn't open the CTBT and let india in as a nuclear power. But this bypasses that. No wonder it got the NPA's goat. India cannot tie it's future to imported hydrocarbon.. The recent hike in oil prices is equivalent to the entire tax base of the Indian govt ..around 10% of the GDP. That is clearly unsustainable and we need to move to other energy options , including nuclear. In fact, France, South Korea , Japan, Denmark, Scandinavia and Germany should be the models for India's energy policy going forward. Coal and Oil must be out.
No one is going to sign any nuke deal with TSP , given how unstable it is . Heck.. Looks like Peshawar is in danger of falling to the Taliban! I am willing to bet that the Chinese wont do so either, going forward. They have been burned badly by the Xerox khan's nuclear walmart enterprise and it is the Chinese weapon design that keeps turning up in places like Iran to Libya like a bad nightmare. The world knows that. TSP's leverage was that it had fellow rogue states like North Korea and former rogues like China to trade with. Now North Korea is neutralized (the unspoken /unheralded triumph of GW Bush's nuclear policy..add Libya to that list, Iran is a work in progress that shows all sign of capitulating soon, despite all the bluster)..Now with fellow rogues knocked out and TSP/China nuke linkages cut off, TSP has no leverage.. it will be squeezed and contained.
Quote:
If Congress comes back to power, the same arguments will be given: "India will be a global superpower of the 21st century" to give Kashmir de-facto independence (notice how MMS supinely caved in to the TSP-inspired Kashmiri Muslim scum violently protesting a small piece of land allocated to assist Hindu pilgrims in their ardous journey to Amarnath cave). If MMS has his way through this deal and Congress continues its reigns, and everything goes along the best case rosy path through his deal, it will be case of no war, no peace for some time, giving enough room for TSP to recoup and be a royal pain in India's you know where. Forget about taking on China and beyond. In fact, I would argue that without a strong nuke-armed military and a nationalist ideology, "globalization" (pax Americana) may well turn India into a loose "South Asian" federation as many elites both in India and west want including MMS/Sonia. Some global power of the 21st century, my foot.
The way Kashmir will get settled when the gap (economic, social, cultural, political and general well being) between India and TSP widen to such a level that even pretend equal-equal would be laughably silly. We are not there yet, but will be there in another 15 to 20 years. Eventually TSP elites and society (or if they have anything called that there) will realize that the atavistic conflict with India is neither necessary nor desirable and profitable, that is when there can be a settlement. India's primary job is simple . Keep growing strongly and strengthen society and get the health, education and wellness up, while maintaining a strong armed force that deters any misadventure from TSP and China or anyone else. Once we are in the USD 5000 /7000 percapita range and poverty is reduced to 5% or less (around today's Turkey's levels),. (Korea was there like 10 years ago.)..we would be over the "hump" and the most serious challenges to India would have been surmounted. That is the 2020 target..
Once that happens USD 5k to 7k range per captia and 5% poverty, the entire neighborhood will be different. Conflict with India will be idiotic for any of the smaller neighbors. Think of it.. You are sitting next to one of the largest most attractive markets in the world.. with decent technology and strong manufacturing and services base .. what would you rather do.. fight with it or trade with it , that too when India's defense forces are far stronger than your's ? The dynamic would be different.
Pax Americana is over / not the same anymore. We will be in a different kind of place in 25 years from now. It will be a mutli polar world where hopefully large emerging BRIC countries get absorbed into the international system without too much disrpution. There is no need to "take on" the Chinese without any good reason. China too will change and evolve and will face "encirclement" by Unkil, Taiwan, Japan , India and Asean if it is disruptive and threatening.
Hopefully, the next 50 years will be a year of peace and growth , and very different from the previous 50 years. for that you have to strike at the root of conflict... OIL.. Get away from the oil addiction and you will be fine. That is why the Nuke deal is so important and kudos to MMS and Sonia for realizing that and seeing it through.
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