2009 Poll Prospects And Alignments

[acharya]

For Deal to pass UPA needs to first undertake a vote of confidence in the Parliament. The numbers seem as follows:

ASSURED
--------
153 - Indian National Congress
33 - Samajwadi Party (Loyalists)

3-4 - Samajwadi Party (Rebels)
YES - Beni Prasad Verma - Already was hobnobbing with Congress.
YES - Ateeq Ahmed - Murderer (BSP MLA) in Jail. Verma is handler.
YES - Raj Babbar - Already was hobnobbing with Congress. Wants Fatehpur Sikri Loksabha Seat.
??? - Afzal Ansari - Murderer (BJP MLA) in Jail. Susceptible to BSP charm. Unclear
NO - Munawwar Hasan - Gone over to BSP
NO - Jai Prakash Rawat - Gone over to BSP

24 - Rashtriya Janta Dal
16 - Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam
11 - Nationalist Congress Party
6 - Pattali Makkal Katchi
5 - Jharkhand Mukti Morcha
4 - Lok Jan Shakti Party
1 - Jammu & Kashmir People's Democratic Party - Mehbooba Mufti has already pledged despite J&K Fiasco
1 - Republican Party of India - Part of UPA
1 - National Loktantrik Party - Baleshwar Yadav has already attached himself to SP.

TOTAL ASSURED - ~259

VERY LIKELY
3 - Rashtriya Lok Dal - Ajit Singh has already said yes but wants some seat arrangements in Western UP.
2 - Janta Dal (Secular) - Devegowda still has to commit, but has no other choice. Rebel Veerendra Kumar from Kerala is Left's pat, so only 2 from 3 assured.
2 - Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam Rebels will vote for UPA i.e. 2 out of 4.
1 - All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimmeen (Hyderabad) - Part of UPA but party unsure because anti-Muslim connotations of the nuclear deal
1 - All India Muslim League (Kerala State Committee) - Part of UPA. E. Ahmed - MP Minister of State for External Affairs, but deal to be discussed in Party meeting
1 - Sikkim Democratic Front - Part of UPA. Still non-committal.
1 - Mizo National Front - Ruling Party in Mizoram. MP in favor of nuclear deal. Awaits decision of Party Meeting.
1 - Mani Charenamai (Independent from Manipur) In favor of deal but not committed as yet.
1 - Sansuma Khunggur Bwiswmuthiary (Independent from Assam, Bodo) In favor of deal but not committed as yet.
1 - Thupstan Chhewang (Independent from J&K, Leh) In favor of deal but has grudges against state Congress.
1 - Harish Nagpal (Independent from UP, Amroha) Reports of in favor.

TOTAL VERY LIKELY - 15

DEALABLE
3 - Telangana Rashtra Samithi - Only if one promises them Telangana
1 - All India Trinamool Congress - Mamata Banerjee wants Congress to dance to her tunes in West Bengal. Could vote with UPA just to spite Left but can also be persuaded by former allies in NDA to vote against.

TOTAL DEALABLE - 4

STEALABLE
2 - Jammu & Kashmir National Conference - Positive signals from Omar Abdullah. Looking forward to alignments at state level after Assembly elections.
8 - Shiromani Akali Dal - Has a few grounds to vote in favor of UPA even though in opposition to Congress in Punjab.
a. Bringing down of first Sikh Prime Minister of India would not look good for a party, claiming to represent Sikhs everywhere.
b. Want to have nuclear power plants in the state (Punjab) for development.
c. Supported by expatriate Punjabis (incl. Sikhs), especially in USA, who have helped on this deal
d. Always got a fair deal from Dr. Manmohan Singh for Punjab.
e. May wish to show independence of policy from BJP.
f. Would want to emulate Shiv Sena's attitude of supporting a fellow Marathi for President.

TOTAL STEALABLE - 10

ABSTAINABLE
12 - Shiv Sena - They are pissed off at Left and may not like to vote with them. Bal Thakaray supports the deal. Son wants to stick to NDA whip.


Total with UPA -
Minimum - 272
Maximum - 288

UPA will survive the confidence motion and nuclear deal can go forward.