07-18-2008, 06:48 AM
Trust vote: UPA could miss the bus
If there is a palpable sense of nervousness amongst the UPA constituents over the trust vote, it is not without reason. Behind the veneer of bravado they must be a worried lot. With the Opposition boasting of a minimum of 265 committed votes and undecided accounting for 11 votes, the Congress will have to struggle for every vote. The spectre of defeat looms large. Check out the scenarios...
The PICTURE
FOR UPA: 265 committed votes including 5 of JMM.
Against: 265 committed votes
Undecided 11
Abstaining: 1 (Trinamool Congress)
The MATH
House: 543.
One MP without vote takes the tally to 542.
Once the Speaker is selected electorate will be 541.
Since the Speaker will be from the UPA this brings down their number to 264.
Since Mamata is abstaining the electorate will be 540.
We also assume that the Speaker wonât vote unless it is a tie.
Effectively, the UPA will need to get 271 votes.
Scenario I
JMM which has been miffed by the UPA before exits the UPA. The game is as good as up as the UPA committed vote number will be 259. Assume that JMM will settle for the Coal Ministry and a MoS, the front still needs 264 + 7 votes to win. Which means M/s Amar Ahmad and Antony will have to bag both the independents on the fence, both single digit parties (AIMIM & NPF) and at least one of the twoâJD(S) or RLD to take their tally past the 270 mark.
Reality Check
AIMIM will find it tough to defend voting for the N Deal in Mecca Masjid Hyderabad. NPF will have to worry about its coalition at home with BJP and NCP. RLD is in serious negotiations with BSP.
Scenario II
JD (S) and RLD support the UPA. That will take the UPA tally to 269. With a leg-up from one of the undecided independents the front will cross the Rubicon.
Reality Check
Congress will have to part with at least two cabinet posts and two MoS slots besides seat arrangements for RLD in UP and for JD(S) in Karnataka. The ministerial berths shouldnât be an issue but the logjam at electoral alliances will bust the deal.
Most Plausible Scenario.
Scenario III
RLD goes with BSP which takes the vote against the UPA to 268. Theoretically, the UPA can still bag 272 seats but this is politics. The hurdle will be set higher and the UPA managers will have to get all the eight seats including AIMIM and National Conference to cross the halfway mark.
Reality Check
This will be nothing short of a miracle but could happen because the theory is that MPs donât want elections just now. That said, fact is PDP and NC have never been on the same side of the divide so the best shot would be 270 just below the cut off.
Scenario IV
Omar Abdullah may favour the deal as he has publicly accepted but with PDP already at the UPA table he may at best decide to abstain. This will bring down the size of the electorate to 538 but UPA will still require at least 269 votes. Which means UPA which will have 264 votes after getting its speaker elected will have to bag JD(S) and RLD or one of them and all the four single digit entities.
Reality Check
Thupstan Chewwang wants Ladakh to be nominated a union territory, we donât know what the Manipur MP may want while JD(S) and RLD will seek high profile ministerial berths.
Scenario V
JD(S), AIMIM and NC abstain taking the size of the electorate to 535 and the victory target to 268. The UPA will have to virtually beg RLD to come into the ministry and offer sops to the MPs from Nagaland, Manipur and Ladakh.
Reality Check
This could just happen and if RLD goes with its proposed scatter front alliance along with TRS and BSP the game is pretty much up for the UPA.
Worst Scenario
JMM and RLD hook up with BSP. That takes the committed vote strength of UPA to 259 and the opposition strength to 268. The UPA will then need 12 votes to push past the halfway mark to a single vote majority of 271 in the electorate of 540. But there are only 11 undecided votes.
Reality Check
If one more MP decides to join Mamata and abstain, there could well be a tie at 269-269.
Disaster Scenario
As of now at least nine Congress MPsâ3 from UP, 4 from Karnataka, 2 from Tamil Naduâare being wooed by the BSP with an assured ticket, election funding plus discomfort allowance. Even if five of these succumb the UPA would have lost the race before it even starts.
Reality Check
Congress managers have identified almost all of them and Sonia Gandhi is expected to personally assure them of her backing in their issues.
The permutations and combinations are endless but what is coming through is that NC will abstain: 2 seats
JD(S) will abstain: 2 seats
AIMIM will abstain: 1 seat
That brings the size of the electorate down to 535 requiring a majority of 268. With 264 committed votes the UPA could theoretically be scraping through. Except there is a big question mark over JMM. There is also the question mark about Congressâ own flock sticking together. Every which way Sonia Gandhi must be wishing that she had pulled down the government last August or wishing she had simply pushed for dissolution when the Left pulled the rug. At least it would have been saved of the radiation resulting from its association with SP.
The numbers as they stand now:
<img src='http://mediaservice.digitaltoday.in/indiatoday//images/732/080717103752_UPA.jpg' border='0' alt='user posted image' />
If there is a palpable sense of nervousness amongst the UPA constituents over the trust vote, it is not without reason. Behind the veneer of bravado they must be a worried lot. With the Opposition boasting of a minimum of 265 committed votes and undecided accounting for 11 votes, the Congress will have to struggle for every vote. The spectre of defeat looms large. Check out the scenarios...
The PICTURE
FOR UPA: 265 committed votes including 5 of JMM.
Against: 265 committed votes
Undecided 11
Abstaining: 1 (Trinamool Congress)
The MATH
House: 543.
One MP without vote takes the tally to 542.
Once the Speaker is selected electorate will be 541.
Since the Speaker will be from the UPA this brings down their number to 264.
Since Mamata is abstaining the electorate will be 540.
We also assume that the Speaker wonât vote unless it is a tie.
Effectively, the UPA will need to get 271 votes.
Scenario I
JMM which has been miffed by the UPA before exits the UPA. The game is as good as up as the UPA committed vote number will be 259. Assume that JMM will settle for the Coal Ministry and a MoS, the front still needs 264 + 7 votes to win. Which means M/s Amar Ahmad and Antony will have to bag both the independents on the fence, both single digit parties (AIMIM & NPF) and at least one of the twoâJD(S) or RLD to take their tally past the 270 mark.
Reality Check
AIMIM will find it tough to defend voting for the N Deal in Mecca Masjid Hyderabad. NPF will have to worry about its coalition at home with BJP and NCP. RLD is in serious negotiations with BSP.
Scenario II
JD (S) and RLD support the UPA. That will take the UPA tally to 269. With a leg-up from one of the undecided independents the front will cross the Rubicon.
Reality Check
Congress will have to part with at least two cabinet posts and two MoS slots besides seat arrangements for RLD in UP and for JD(S) in Karnataka. The ministerial berths shouldnât be an issue but the logjam at electoral alliances will bust the deal.
Most Plausible Scenario.
Scenario III
RLD goes with BSP which takes the vote against the UPA to 268. Theoretically, the UPA can still bag 272 seats but this is politics. The hurdle will be set higher and the UPA managers will have to get all the eight seats including AIMIM and National Conference to cross the halfway mark.
Reality Check
This will be nothing short of a miracle but could happen because the theory is that MPs donât want elections just now. That said, fact is PDP and NC have never been on the same side of the divide so the best shot would be 270 just below the cut off.
Scenario IV
Omar Abdullah may favour the deal as he has publicly accepted but with PDP already at the UPA table he may at best decide to abstain. This will bring down the size of the electorate to 538 but UPA will still require at least 269 votes. Which means UPA which will have 264 votes after getting its speaker elected will have to bag JD(S) and RLD or one of them and all the four single digit entities.
Reality Check
Thupstan Chewwang wants Ladakh to be nominated a union territory, we donât know what the Manipur MP may want while JD(S) and RLD will seek high profile ministerial berths.
Scenario V
JD(S), AIMIM and NC abstain taking the size of the electorate to 535 and the victory target to 268. The UPA will have to virtually beg RLD to come into the ministry and offer sops to the MPs from Nagaland, Manipur and Ladakh.
Reality Check
This could just happen and if RLD goes with its proposed scatter front alliance along with TRS and BSP the game is pretty much up for the UPA.
Worst Scenario
JMM and RLD hook up with BSP. That takes the committed vote strength of UPA to 259 and the opposition strength to 268. The UPA will then need 12 votes to push past the halfway mark to a single vote majority of 271 in the electorate of 540. But there are only 11 undecided votes.
Reality Check
If one more MP decides to join Mamata and abstain, there could well be a tie at 269-269.
Disaster Scenario
As of now at least nine Congress MPsâ3 from UP, 4 from Karnataka, 2 from Tamil Naduâare being wooed by the BSP with an assured ticket, election funding plus discomfort allowance. Even if five of these succumb the UPA would have lost the race before it even starts.
Reality Check
Congress managers have identified almost all of them and Sonia Gandhi is expected to personally assure them of her backing in their issues.
The permutations and combinations are endless but what is coming through is that NC will abstain: 2 seats
JD(S) will abstain: 2 seats
AIMIM will abstain: 1 seat
That brings the size of the electorate down to 535 requiring a majority of 268. With 264 committed votes the UPA could theoretically be scraping through. Except there is a big question mark over JMM. There is also the question mark about Congressâ own flock sticking together. Every which way Sonia Gandhi must be wishing that she had pulled down the government last August or wishing she had simply pushed for dissolution when the Left pulled the rug. At least it would have been saved of the radiation resulting from its association with SP.
The numbers as they stand now:
<img src='http://mediaservice.digitaltoday.in/indiatoday//images/732/080717103752_UPA.jpg' border='0' alt='user posted image' />