India And Russia - I

[acharya]

VIEWPOINT
Published: Thursday, 14 August, 2008, 01:39 AM Doha Time
Georgia’s gamble could cost Saakashvili dear
The shelling has stopped, the dead are being counted, a peace plan has been agreed and US and British politicians – without any sense of irony – are spouting indignant condemnations following Russia’s trouncing of Georgia.
Typically, the Bush and Brown lobby have painted the Great Bear as the bad-guy aggressor. And yesterday, Britain’s Foreign Secretary David Miliband, leapt right over the wall of western double-standards when he railed: “That is simply not the way in which international relations can be run in the 21st century.”
One would think, in light of the Iraq debacle and the continuing disgrace of detention without charge, that these two world ‘powers’ would have been among the last to plant their flags in the shifting soil of moral high ground.
In contrast, one French official hit straight at the heart of the matter by branding Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili “mad”.
It was Saakashvili’s decision to launch a military offensive last week in the pro-Russian region of South Ossetia – and Russia, itching for an excuse, came in hard.
“He gambled, he lost,” said the senior French official on condition of anonymity. “The Georgians fell into a crude trap.”
Without doubt, Russia’s reaction was heavy-handed in the extreme, but the warning signs had been there to read – and subsequently ignored – by Saakashvili.
Now, some 100,000 people have been displaced by the conflict, many hundreds have died.
Writing in a UK newspaper yesterday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov criticised what he described as a “truly David and Goliath interpretation” of the conflict.
“Let me be absolutely clear,” he wrote. “This is not a conflict of Russia’s making. This is not a conflict of Russia’s choosing. There are no winners from this conflict.”
Perhaps not, but there could be one very definite loser because when the dust settles Saakashvili will face some tough questions.
As Nick Grono, of the International Crisis Group, explained: “This situation escalated the way it did because of miscalculations, especially on the part of Saakashvili.” Furthermore, the crisis has now put Georgia’s Nato dreams in jeopardy and the devastating effect on the country’s economy and infrastructure is massive.
Until a week ago Georgia’s economic growth stood at more than 10% in 2006 and 2007, despite sanctions imposed by Moscow on key industries. Three five-star hotels are being built in Tbilisi and Western-style boutiques and malls have mushroomed throughout the city.
Now, it will cost millions to repair the damage caused by Russian bombs; at a time of global economic crisis and the probable imposition of more sanctions by Russia to further hurt the Georgian economy.
Defeat in South Ossetia could mean Georgia has lost the province for good – a bitter blow to Saakashvili who promised to restore central control there – and his military has been humiliated.
There may not have been any winners from the conflict, but Saakashvili increasingly looks to have gambled away his political future.