09-07-2008, 01:00 AM
X-posted...
Congratulations everyone! What a long journey from 1974! Reminds one of the Ikshvaku quest to bring the holy Ganga to Mother Earth over many generations. Similarly this quest for dejure recogniton as an NWS has happened during the tenure of many Prime Minsters. Its to the credit of Sri Manmohan Singh that this achievement has happened on his watch. Once again a well deserved kudos!
The prinicpal accomplishment of the NSG waiver is that Indian nukes are legitimate and recognised in the world power structure. This is what has brought out all that angst among the 45 NSG members. The NSG was called the London Suppliers Group and became the NSG and was formed mainly in response to India's 1974 test which created an anamolous situation vis a vis the NPT that only recognised those countries that tested nukes before 1968.
If one sees the statements of the NSG holdouts there are two groups- a non proliferation group which voted for India once thy realized the error of the situation to punish India which has an excellent track record and a proliferation group who are the holdouts. Once the NSG was created in 1978 the members were merrily transferring stuff across the board and preserving options by getting their stuff proofed in TSP and PRC.
From the narrative one can see that there is no lobby for India in any of these nuke related bodies or paltforms. The end of Cold War created the climate to create such a lobby and it was France that first saw the need to hedge the global power structure. But France is not big enough to push the system. It has to be the US. And we see that the US only reacts when presented with a fait accompli as the Israelis note. And this was completed by the NDA govt with the tests. The US stalled for they needed to move from their rigid high horse. A number of geo-politcal events since 9/11 helped them get off their high horse and see the issues from a global prespective.
To alter the NPT structure was uncharted territory and it was the Indian bureaucracy (current and former) which had the foresight to engage the US in this journey. The US was made to move from the NNPA of Carter to the Hyde Act. Yes Hyde has all the bile of the NPAs and is like a sponge to collect the ill will and negativity against India for rocking the NPT structure. Recall the NPT structure was a US initiative of the Johnson Admnistration based on the Gilpatric Commission. India pulled no stops and lobbied to let the Congress mainly Democrats and Paki-supporter Republicans put all the Hiranyakashyap conditions in the Hyde Act. This was reviled widely in India but the main point of Hyde Act is it moved the cheese from no trade with India to trade with India subject to some conditions. The charade/drama after that was to marginalize the adversarial components of Hyde act. To do this the 123 agreement with US was negotiated, the IAEA safeguards and now the NSG waiver.
The US admin at best hopes for a couple of plants as the leaked letter indicates. It cant hope for more due to the Damocles sword components of the Hyde Act. And Hyde gets to hide once the 123 is signed by the Indian govt after its passed by the US Congress.
The torture at Vienna had to be endured to allow the pipsqueak countries which have been brought up over last thirty years (NSG came into effect around 1978), because the need to preserve the NSG structure to prevent further proliferation which is also in Indian interest. It doesnt matter that others countries also benefit. Its a win-win. So long as India gets out of the cloud it doesnt matter who also gets some sunshine.
To get here a natyam had to be enacted. As there is no lobby for India the internal opposition in India had to be used as a pressure group. All the parties especially Karat had their roles to play and they did. I had earlier said the deal would not have been offered to anyone but MMS. Not even if Rahul Gandhi were the head of the state. This is because MMS comes across as sincere West loving person unlike the others who might revert and let their nationalism assert itself. Once it was offered and the cheese moved, it was necessary to keep the fear of a replacement to ensure that the goalposts dont get moved beyond what is tolerable to India. Yes the goal posts were moved since J18 but not so far as they are out of Indian sight and reach. Many of the steps required were what India was going to do as legitimate nuke power. India doesn't need any foreign imports for the weapons program and all those not this not that dont matter to the originators of Vedanta.
PRC did what it had to do for what was at stake was the leadership of Asia. So no hard feelings. Will take care when needed. The holdouts need to be taught their place. A special care should be taken to not place any orders for equipment or imports from those holdouts for starters.
However I dont want NZ to be puished as they were misled into beleiving the NSG BS would end the nuclear arms race. A genuine peacenik should be respected. But the Austrian neutered Nazis who were hedging the non-Norman option, should be made to pay.
The first step is to get the fuel for those plants that need it.
More later.
Lets savor the moment and celebrate!
Its August 15th, 1947 all over again.
Congratulations everyone! What a long journey from 1974! Reminds one of the Ikshvaku quest to bring the holy Ganga to Mother Earth over many generations. Similarly this quest for dejure recogniton as an NWS has happened during the tenure of many Prime Minsters. Its to the credit of Sri Manmohan Singh that this achievement has happened on his watch. Once again a well deserved kudos!
The prinicpal accomplishment of the NSG waiver is that Indian nukes are legitimate and recognised in the world power structure. This is what has brought out all that angst among the 45 NSG members. The NSG was called the London Suppliers Group and became the NSG and was formed mainly in response to India's 1974 test which created an anamolous situation vis a vis the NPT that only recognised those countries that tested nukes before 1968.
If one sees the statements of the NSG holdouts there are two groups- a non proliferation group which voted for India once thy realized the error of the situation to punish India which has an excellent track record and a proliferation group who are the holdouts. Once the NSG was created in 1978 the members were merrily transferring stuff across the board and preserving options by getting their stuff proofed in TSP and PRC.
From the narrative one can see that there is no lobby for India in any of these nuke related bodies or paltforms. The end of Cold War created the climate to create such a lobby and it was France that first saw the need to hedge the global power structure. But France is not big enough to push the system. It has to be the US. And we see that the US only reacts when presented with a fait accompli as the Israelis note. And this was completed by the NDA govt with the tests. The US stalled for they needed to move from their rigid high horse. A number of geo-politcal events since 9/11 helped them get off their high horse and see the issues from a global prespective.
To alter the NPT structure was uncharted territory and it was the Indian bureaucracy (current and former) which had the foresight to engage the US in this journey. The US was made to move from the NNPA of Carter to the Hyde Act. Yes Hyde has all the bile of the NPAs and is like a sponge to collect the ill will and negativity against India for rocking the NPT structure. Recall the NPT structure was a US initiative of the Johnson Admnistration based on the Gilpatric Commission. India pulled no stops and lobbied to let the Congress mainly Democrats and Paki-supporter Republicans put all the Hiranyakashyap conditions in the Hyde Act. This was reviled widely in India but the main point of Hyde Act is it moved the cheese from no trade with India to trade with India subject to some conditions. The charade/drama after that was to marginalize the adversarial components of Hyde act. To do this the 123 agreement with US was negotiated, the IAEA safeguards and now the NSG waiver.
The US admin at best hopes for a couple of plants as the leaked letter indicates. It cant hope for more due to the Damocles sword components of the Hyde Act. And Hyde gets to hide once the 123 is signed by the Indian govt after its passed by the US Congress.
The torture at Vienna had to be endured to allow the pipsqueak countries which have been brought up over last thirty years (NSG came into effect around 1978), because the need to preserve the NSG structure to prevent further proliferation which is also in Indian interest. It doesnt matter that others countries also benefit. Its a win-win. So long as India gets out of the cloud it doesnt matter who also gets some sunshine.
To get here a natyam had to be enacted. As there is no lobby for India the internal opposition in India had to be used as a pressure group. All the parties especially Karat had their roles to play and they did. I had earlier said the deal would not have been offered to anyone but MMS. Not even if Rahul Gandhi were the head of the state. This is because MMS comes across as sincere West loving person unlike the others who might revert and let their nationalism assert itself. Once it was offered and the cheese moved, it was necessary to keep the fear of a replacement to ensure that the goalposts dont get moved beyond what is tolerable to India. Yes the goal posts were moved since J18 but not so far as they are out of Indian sight and reach. Many of the steps required were what India was going to do as legitimate nuke power. India doesn't need any foreign imports for the weapons program and all those not this not that dont matter to the originators of Vedanta.
PRC did what it had to do for what was at stake was the leadership of Asia. So no hard feelings. Will take care when needed. The holdouts need to be taught their place. A special care should be taken to not place any orders for equipment or imports from those holdouts for starters.
However I dont want NZ to be puished as they were misled into beleiving the NSG BS would end the nuclear arms race. A genuine peacenik should be respected. But the Austrian neutered Nazis who were hedging the non-Norman option, should be made to pay.
The first step is to get the fuel for those plants that need it.
More later.
Lets savor the moment and celebrate!
Its August 15th, 1947 all over again.