10-13-2008, 05:40 AM
30 seats for BJP in UP and 200 in Lok Sabha.
http://www.dailypioneer.com/127132/BJP-rac...ets-a-flat.html
BJP racing ahead as Congress gets a flat
Dina Nath Mishra
Researchers have analysed human behaviour in a particular set of circumstances. For example: After the near-collapse of the US economy, shareholders behaved in a particular manner and there was a great rush to liquidate shareholding and withdraw money from banks. The same was seen when the BSE sensex tanked below the 11,000 mark. Everybody wants security of body, employment and psychological satisfaction. One can witness tendency of moving towards higher plains in flood-hit areas.
Abraham Maslow, who is considered as one of the topmost psychologists of 20th century, is famous for analysing his theory of hierarchy of needs and political behaviour. He has classified human beings into five groups and arranged them in hierarchical order.
Though all the needs are present in almost all human being at all times, immediate attention is focused on particular unfulfilled and threatened needs. Prevailing situations motivate people to act on priority of their needs. Hit by price rise, generally the poor, salaried persons and people below poverty line will be motivated to vote out the UPA. The section above them does not feel the pinch of price rise as the food basket is within their availability.
Recently there was an all-India survey, which showed that 50 per cent of people were more concerned with rising terrorism. That is why almost 60 per cent people are suffering from this fear-psychosis. It can tilt the voting behaviour of even a larger number of people than that of the class affected by price rise. Even the non-availability of water and electricity may still make them angry against the Government. This accumulated anger of mass level is called the anti-incumbency factor. Today confidence of citizens regarding their safety has become the main concern irrespective of caste and class in cities and villages both.
In a situation like this, traditional voters are swayed by personal consideration factor. Take the case of reservations. 27 per cent reservation to OBCs threatened the career and future of upper class students. They may have forgotten the event but have never forgiven leaders like VP Singh.
Today Mulayam Singh and Lalu Prasad are harvesting the OBC caste factor. In the 2009 elections there may be shifts in voting patterns because of two mega changes: exorbitant price rise and ever-increasing terror fear. Both these problems have not been tackled by the UPA Government. Common people are cursing UPA. These two factors are going to impact the voting pattern over and above the political grouping of UPA and NDA. Till last year, UPA was definitely ahead of the NDA. The turning point came when Punjab went to Assembly polls.
Price rise and terror factor had the decisive impact on the outcome of the poll. Thereafter electoral results of State after State proved the sway impacting these factors in the voting pattern of Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Delhi Municipal Corporation, Gujarat and Karnataka. Going by these trends, the threat of terrorism as well as spiralling price-rise are likely to bring about massive change in the political scenario of the country. Practically, there is no trump card or plus-point with the Congress-led UPA, which can stop its downward slide.
As per general assessment, there seems to be a probability of BJP-led NDA Government coming to power. One may see mathematical side of this electoral politics. There are five States which would give BJP at least 100 Lok Sabha seats -- Karnataka, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh. If it gets a few less seats, these are likely to be compensated by more seats elsewhere in this group of States. Few months back, Gujarat Chief Minister publicly announced that the State would give all the 26 seats of Lok Sabha in the BJP kitty. Even in the worst of times Madhya Pradesh has been contributing 25 to 29 Lok Sabha seats. In the last General Election Karnataka gave 18 seats. Now the story would be different as the State is being successfully run by the BJP.
In the second group of States -- Assam and North-East -- presently BJP has six Lok Sabha seats. In the next election it is likely to reach the double-digit mark. Orissa, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Chandigarh, Punjab, Haryana and Delhi would add at least 65 seats in the BJP kitty. Further, Goa, Andhra, Tamil Nadu, Lakshwadeep, Daman Diu may contribute 7 to 10 seats. Finally, comes Uttar Pradesh. For those who are unaware of ground level changes, BJP's organisation and the enthusiasm of its cadre, as witnessed during Moradabad and Bareilly rallies, is an eye opener. LK Advani, NDA's Prime Ministerial candidate addressed these mega rallies signifying chemical change in political behaviour of this province. As per my assessment, BJP can win over 30 seats in UP. The total comes to over 200 Lok Sabha seats.
With the support of NDA allies, the majority mark looks attainable. The momentum is in favour of the BJP and NDA. By the time people cast their votes, this probability may become certainty. BJP-led NDA is coming to power.
http://www.dailypioneer.com/127132/BJP-rac...ets-a-flat.html
BJP racing ahead as Congress gets a flat
Dina Nath Mishra
Researchers have analysed human behaviour in a particular set of circumstances. For example: After the near-collapse of the US economy, shareholders behaved in a particular manner and there was a great rush to liquidate shareholding and withdraw money from banks. The same was seen when the BSE sensex tanked below the 11,000 mark. Everybody wants security of body, employment and psychological satisfaction. One can witness tendency of moving towards higher plains in flood-hit areas.
Abraham Maslow, who is considered as one of the topmost psychologists of 20th century, is famous for analysing his theory of hierarchy of needs and political behaviour. He has classified human beings into five groups and arranged them in hierarchical order.
Though all the needs are present in almost all human being at all times, immediate attention is focused on particular unfulfilled and threatened needs. Prevailing situations motivate people to act on priority of their needs. Hit by price rise, generally the poor, salaried persons and people below poverty line will be motivated to vote out the UPA. The section above them does not feel the pinch of price rise as the food basket is within their availability.
Recently there was an all-India survey, which showed that 50 per cent of people were more concerned with rising terrorism. That is why almost 60 per cent people are suffering from this fear-psychosis. It can tilt the voting behaviour of even a larger number of people than that of the class affected by price rise. Even the non-availability of water and electricity may still make them angry against the Government. This accumulated anger of mass level is called the anti-incumbency factor. Today confidence of citizens regarding their safety has become the main concern irrespective of caste and class in cities and villages both.
In a situation like this, traditional voters are swayed by personal consideration factor. Take the case of reservations. 27 per cent reservation to OBCs threatened the career and future of upper class students. They may have forgotten the event but have never forgiven leaders like VP Singh.
Today Mulayam Singh and Lalu Prasad are harvesting the OBC caste factor. In the 2009 elections there may be shifts in voting patterns because of two mega changes: exorbitant price rise and ever-increasing terror fear. Both these problems have not been tackled by the UPA Government. Common people are cursing UPA. These two factors are going to impact the voting pattern over and above the political grouping of UPA and NDA. Till last year, UPA was definitely ahead of the NDA. The turning point came when Punjab went to Assembly polls.
Price rise and terror factor had the decisive impact on the outcome of the poll. Thereafter electoral results of State after State proved the sway impacting these factors in the voting pattern of Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Delhi Municipal Corporation, Gujarat and Karnataka. Going by these trends, the threat of terrorism as well as spiralling price-rise are likely to bring about massive change in the political scenario of the country. Practically, there is no trump card or plus-point with the Congress-led UPA, which can stop its downward slide.
As per general assessment, there seems to be a probability of BJP-led NDA Government coming to power. One may see mathematical side of this electoral politics. There are five States which would give BJP at least 100 Lok Sabha seats -- Karnataka, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh. If it gets a few less seats, these are likely to be compensated by more seats elsewhere in this group of States. Few months back, Gujarat Chief Minister publicly announced that the State would give all the 26 seats of Lok Sabha in the BJP kitty. Even in the worst of times Madhya Pradesh has been contributing 25 to 29 Lok Sabha seats. In the last General Election Karnataka gave 18 seats. Now the story would be different as the State is being successfully run by the BJP.
In the second group of States -- Assam and North-East -- presently BJP has six Lok Sabha seats. In the next election it is likely to reach the double-digit mark. Orissa, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Chandigarh, Punjab, Haryana and Delhi would add at least 65 seats in the BJP kitty. Further, Goa, Andhra, Tamil Nadu, Lakshwadeep, Daman Diu may contribute 7 to 10 seats. Finally, comes Uttar Pradesh. For those who are unaware of ground level changes, BJP's organisation and the enthusiasm of its cadre, as witnessed during Moradabad and Bareilly rallies, is an eye opener. LK Advani, NDA's Prime Ministerial candidate addressed these mega rallies signifying chemical change in political behaviour of this province. As per my assessment, BJP can win over 30 seats in UP. The total comes to over 200 Lok Sabha seats.
With the support of NDA allies, the majority mark looks attainable. The momentum is in favour of the BJP and NDA. By the time people cast their votes, this probability may become certainty. BJP-led NDA is coming to power.