12-06-2004, 08:36 AM
The New Space Race
Why China and India could rule the skies
By Bruce SterlingPage 1 of 1
Americans might wonder why developing countries like India and China would spend precious resources in space. But those countries have good reasons - more compelling ones than the US has. Consider the weather, which can be lethal throughout Asia. With satellites, it's possible to see typhoons, floods, and dust storms coming and shout a warning to the victims-to-be. Monitor the weather and you can manage agricultural productivity so that massive populations don't starve. Track hordes of insects and you have a fighting chance to protect your crops. Watch your restive population in places like Kashmir and Tibet and you just might keep your far-flung nation from falling apart at the seams.
Of course, the US is the undisputed space leader. Driven by fear of the Soviet Union's early successes, the government funded gaudy efforts like Apollo and Skylab, programs of undeniable technical machismo but little practical payoff. But America - democratic and market driven - has always found it difficult to swallow the gargantuan cost. Thus, public support blows hot and cold. The Ansari X Prize suggests that the country's future in space is in the hands of entrepreneurs with their eyes focused on quarterly reports.
India and China have played the tortoise to America's hare. The keynote for their style of space-racing is patience, plus self-reliance and practicality: Eschew shiny techno-delusions. Avoid budget-busting spectaculars. Stick with goals that improve the lives of ordinary people. Arrange canny tech-transfer deals with Europeans, Soviets, Americans - anybody who will pay. Then wrap it all up in a Nehru jacket of selfless socialist service.
India's space agency, the Indian Space Research Organization, has managed to keep engineers in charge and thus restrain the nation's notorious bureaucracy from looting the enterprise. The upshot: Sturdy, homegrown satellite launchers and sturdy, homegrown nuclear missiles. Last January, prime minister Atal Behari Vajpayee urged his countrymen to work toward a manned moon landing.
Similarly, China's space program is a geek stronghold within a turbulent, ideological society. The People's Republic launched its first satellite in 1970, and today it boasts enough nuclear-tipped ICBMs to roast the American seaboards. In 2003, Chinese officials reportedly announced plans for their own manned moon landing in 2010, although they later denied it.
It's clear that India and China have the means, motive, and opportunity to become the technical leaders of a new era. But what would they do with such an exalted position?
Most likely they would do things the same way they always have: slowly and pragmatically. China's leaders have talked about establishing a city on the moon, but this is paper tiger hype: A lunar Beijing would be useless. Yet China's rapidly industrializing economy has developed an unquenchable thirst for energy. Given the country's passion for outsize civil engineering projects, the Chinese would do well to build a giant orbiting solar power station. The cost would be roughly equal to that of Three Gorges Dam, and there's nothing wrong with the physics.
While China has been on an industrial binge, India has built an information economy dependent on satellites. The need to loft them efficiently and the country's position near the equator, where the Earth's gravity is evenly distributed, gives India a special incentive to consider building a geosynchronous space elevator. Ribbons of carbon nanotube some 24,000 miles long could fling cheap Indian hardware hither and yon, turning the land of Gandhi into the world's data back office. Want to know where you parked your car? Ask an Indian.
And what about Americans? What would be their role in the Great Upshoring? They could pull up stakes and go live there. That's one feature of the American experience that no other great power can match. The territory is still wide open - but not for long.
Contributing editor Bruce Sterling wrote about US space power in issue 10.04. He maintains a blog at www.wired.com.
Why China and India could rule the skies
By Bruce SterlingPage 1 of 1
Americans might wonder why developing countries like India and China would spend precious resources in space. But those countries have good reasons - more compelling ones than the US has. Consider the weather, which can be lethal throughout Asia. With satellites, it's possible to see typhoons, floods, and dust storms coming and shout a warning to the victims-to-be. Monitor the weather and you can manage agricultural productivity so that massive populations don't starve. Track hordes of insects and you have a fighting chance to protect your crops. Watch your restive population in places like Kashmir and Tibet and you just might keep your far-flung nation from falling apart at the seams.
Of course, the US is the undisputed space leader. Driven by fear of the Soviet Union's early successes, the government funded gaudy efforts like Apollo and Skylab, programs of undeniable technical machismo but little practical payoff. But America - democratic and market driven - has always found it difficult to swallow the gargantuan cost. Thus, public support blows hot and cold. The Ansari X Prize suggests that the country's future in space is in the hands of entrepreneurs with their eyes focused on quarterly reports.
India and China have played the tortoise to America's hare. The keynote for their style of space-racing is patience, plus self-reliance and practicality: Eschew shiny techno-delusions. Avoid budget-busting spectaculars. Stick with goals that improve the lives of ordinary people. Arrange canny tech-transfer deals with Europeans, Soviets, Americans - anybody who will pay. Then wrap it all up in a Nehru jacket of selfless socialist service.
India's space agency, the Indian Space Research Organization, has managed to keep engineers in charge and thus restrain the nation's notorious bureaucracy from looting the enterprise. The upshot: Sturdy, homegrown satellite launchers and sturdy, homegrown nuclear missiles. Last January, prime minister Atal Behari Vajpayee urged his countrymen to work toward a manned moon landing.
Similarly, China's space program is a geek stronghold within a turbulent, ideological society. The People's Republic launched its first satellite in 1970, and today it boasts enough nuclear-tipped ICBMs to roast the American seaboards. In 2003, Chinese officials reportedly announced plans for their own manned moon landing in 2010, although they later denied it.
It's clear that India and China have the means, motive, and opportunity to become the technical leaders of a new era. But what would they do with such an exalted position?
Most likely they would do things the same way they always have: slowly and pragmatically. China's leaders have talked about establishing a city on the moon, but this is paper tiger hype: A lunar Beijing would be useless. Yet China's rapidly industrializing economy has developed an unquenchable thirst for energy. Given the country's passion for outsize civil engineering projects, the Chinese would do well to build a giant orbiting solar power station. The cost would be roughly equal to that of Three Gorges Dam, and there's nothing wrong with the physics.
While China has been on an industrial binge, India has built an information economy dependent on satellites. The need to loft them efficiently and the country's position near the equator, where the Earth's gravity is evenly distributed, gives India a special incentive to consider building a geosynchronous space elevator. Ribbons of carbon nanotube some 24,000 miles long could fling cheap Indian hardware hither and yon, turning the land of Gandhi into the world's data back office. Want to know where you parked your car? Ask an Indian.
And what about Americans? What would be their role in the Great Upshoring? They could pull up stakes and go live there. That's one feature of the American experience that no other great power can match. The territory is still wide open - but not for long.
Contributing editor Bruce Sterling wrote about US space power in issue 10.04. He maintains a blog at www.wired.com.