BJP Future - 6

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Elections for 2009 are being planned for May per a report from Rediff.

As per our analysis, this election is very likely to be a hung parliament.

Congress/UPA is likely to do well in Andhra (39 seats), Kerala (20 seats), Rajasthan (25 seats), North East (non-Assam only) (8 seats), Delhi (7 seats). That adds up to 99 seats. By approximating that they will win 70% of seats, that's about 68 seats.

BJP/NDA is likely to do well in Karnataka (28 seats), Gujarat (26 seats), Madhya Pradesh (32 seats), Chhattisgarh (10 seats) & Uttarakhand (5 seats). That is a total of 101 seats and approximating that they will win 70% of seats, that's about 70 seats.

Maharashtra (48 seats), Bihar (35), Jharkhand (19 seats), Orissa (20 seats), Assam (10 seats), Haryana (10 seats) are likely to be split at about 45% by each group. That’s a total of 142 seats. That’s about 64 seats each.

That gives UPA/Congress 120-140 seats and NDA/BJP about 130-150 seats. Each of these groups are likely to get a few more seats in states like UP, West Bengal, J&K etc.. Most likely, each of the 2 groups will not cross 200 seats.

Mayavati is likely to get anywhere 30-50 seats in UP, and she may become the king (or is it queen) maker.