01-22-2009, 11:04 PM
Wont Mulayam and Kalyan singh decimate BSP together. Where is the case for BJP in UP? So defection of Kalyan Singh is a non factor for BJP provided the rot doesnt spillover.
Also whats the issue in Punjab. The cabinet looks worse than INC dynasty.
X-posting...
<!--QuoteBegin-"fanne"+-->QUOTE("fanne")<!--QuoteEBegin-->Well I am not from AP, but only a very very keen observer/follower of politics. You might have read some of my prediction under different pen names at other websites (and I like my anonymity). Anyways, so here is what I have gathered reading from many analyst, some genuine and others not. Some facts -
1. There is no anti-incumbency in AP. In fact most of the programmes of YSR like Rs 2 Rice has been popular.
2. His immediate family has been deep into corruption - may or may not be a poll issue.
3. Unlike in other states, YSR has already started poll preparations, with the help of state machinery (read intelligence agencies)
4. BJP may be in bad shape but in Hyderabad region, it will be in play in all LS seats and post delimitation might pull off few.
5. AP can be divided, for poll purposes in many parts - Telengana (16-18 seats, depending on whom you talk to), Andhra (costal) - 12, Rayalseema - 9 and North AP - 5. Hyderabad region falls in Telengana rgion.
6. There is of course pro-Telengana sentiment in most of Telengana region, except for Hydrabad region apposing it (4-6 Lok Sabha seat). Hyderabad region apposing it comes from Politicsparty.com, whos assertions in tha past have failed miserabely. But Since S. Reddy being from AP I would think he would know better.
7. In Hyderabad region, the Muslims are definitely apposed to Telengana, they see as the reduction of their power and also this area being sensitive would see a BJP government sooner than combined AP.
8. In Hydrabad region, the polirisation is there, but it being cosmopolitan, many undercurrents come into play.
9. The AP votes are going to be divided at least 3 ways and somewhere 4-5 ways. It may follow UP pattern, where a party with overall 30% vote might win big. The congress is understood to be the dominant pole here, even if it gets lesser votes than last time.
10. The above model though fails if you go by the political wisdom, that in each region, it will be mainly bipolar, with the third pole being a distinct third. In Telengana it is rumored to between TDP and congress, where TDP is suppose to sweep.
11. In Northern Andhra it is advantage PR, going by the rallies.
12. Costal is up for grabs; Congress might pull off in 3 way contest.
13. Satyam may or may not have impact. Raju community in East Godavari may break from Cong. It mostly looks like drawing room concern. (My reading)
14.In recent district elections (reported only in Telgu newspapers, wonder why, less than a month ago), 7 districts in Costal AP went to poll. This is for district level heads (a 4 tier election, only in AP I guess). 1 district usually has more than 1 lok sabha seat. 3 of these were won by TDP, 1 by PR, 3 by congress and 1 among 3 by congress person, supported by PR and this person has already joined PR. (and have not been able to confirm it. This led to some cabinet ministers resigning from Cong. The local election should not be taken as they are faught on very local issues, but it gives some headway. On village level election at the same time Congress did very well. I guess 31 seats out of 49.
Conclusion - This is too close to call. The election can go any which way. Congress may get anything between 6-30 seats. Anybody making any sweeping generalization either does not know what he is talking about or knows just too much, more than all the bloggers and pundits out there. If it is the later case, please I am all ears.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Also whats the issue in Punjab. The cabinet looks worse than INC dynasty.
X-posting...
<!--QuoteBegin-"fanne"+-->QUOTE("fanne")<!--QuoteEBegin-->Well I am not from AP, but only a very very keen observer/follower of politics. You might have read some of my prediction under different pen names at other websites (and I like my anonymity). Anyways, so here is what I have gathered reading from many analyst, some genuine and others not. Some facts -
1. There is no anti-incumbency in AP. In fact most of the programmes of YSR like Rs 2 Rice has been popular.
2. His immediate family has been deep into corruption - may or may not be a poll issue.
3. Unlike in other states, YSR has already started poll preparations, with the help of state machinery (read intelligence agencies)
4. BJP may be in bad shape but in Hyderabad region, it will be in play in all LS seats and post delimitation might pull off few.
5. AP can be divided, for poll purposes in many parts - Telengana (16-18 seats, depending on whom you talk to), Andhra (costal) - 12, Rayalseema - 9 and North AP - 5. Hyderabad region falls in Telengana rgion.
6. There is of course pro-Telengana sentiment in most of Telengana region, except for Hydrabad region apposing it (4-6 Lok Sabha seat). Hyderabad region apposing it comes from Politicsparty.com, whos assertions in tha past have failed miserabely. But Since S. Reddy being from AP I would think he would know better.
7. In Hyderabad region, the Muslims are definitely apposed to Telengana, they see as the reduction of their power and also this area being sensitive would see a BJP government sooner than combined AP.
8. In Hydrabad region, the polirisation is there, but it being cosmopolitan, many undercurrents come into play.
9. The AP votes are going to be divided at least 3 ways and somewhere 4-5 ways. It may follow UP pattern, where a party with overall 30% vote might win big. The congress is understood to be the dominant pole here, even if it gets lesser votes than last time.
10. The above model though fails if you go by the political wisdom, that in each region, it will be mainly bipolar, with the third pole being a distinct third. In Telengana it is rumored to between TDP and congress, where TDP is suppose to sweep.
11. In Northern Andhra it is advantage PR, going by the rallies.
12. Costal is up for grabs; Congress might pull off in 3 way contest.
13. Satyam may or may not have impact. Raju community in East Godavari may break from Cong. It mostly looks like drawing room concern. (My reading)
14.In recent district elections (reported only in Telgu newspapers, wonder why, less than a month ago), 7 districts in Costal AP went to poll. This is for district level heads (a 4 tier election, only in AP I guess). 1 district usually has more than 1 lok sabha seat. 3 of these were won by TDP, 1 by PR, 3 by congress and 1 among 3 by congress person, supported by PR and this person has already joined PR. (and have not been able to confirm it. This led to some cabinet ministers resigning from Cong. The local election should not be taken as they are faught on very local issues, but it gives some headway. On village level election at the same time Congress did very well. I guess 31 seats out of 49.
Conclusion - This is too close to call. The election can go any which way. Congress may get anything between 6-30 seats. Anybody making any sweeping generalization either does not know what he is talking about or knows just too much, more than all the bloggers and pundits out there. If it is the later case, please I am all ears.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->