12-14-2004, 08:46 AM
Washington-Watchers Seek Hint of Rice's Pick for Deputy
Sun Dec 12, 7:55 AM ET
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By Sonni Efron Times Staff Writer
WASHINGTON â One of the most talked-about jobs in Washington might not register with most Americans. But as President Bush (news - web sites) rebuilds his Cabinet for his second term, Beltway cognoscenti are focusing on the unfilled No. 2 job at the State Department for clues about the direction of foreign policy.
To those who study the frequently secretive Bush administration's moves in the hope of divining its intentions, Secretary of State-designate Condoleezza Rice (news - web sites)'s choice for her top deputy will be crucial.
"It's a Washington exercise, but not an unimportant Washington exercise," said Morton Abramowitz, a former U.S. ambassador to Turkey and Thailand now with the Council on Foreign Relations. "The fact that the country doesn't pay attention to it doesn't mean it's not important."
If Rice picks a neoconservative as her deputy, Washington insiders predict business as usual: a hard-nosed foreign policy with President Bush continuing to wage the war on terrorism on his own terms. Conservatives would hail a hawkish appointee as a person who "recognizes that we are living in a post-Sept. 11 world," while liberals would rant about "four more wars."
If the No. 2 job goes to someone considered to be a pragmatic realist â especially one who served under the president's father â then liberals will hail a kinder, more multilateral foreign policy, while conservatives will hyperventilate about the danger that the president's policies won't be carried out by weak-kneed State Department bureaucrats.
Few Washingtonians, let alone most other Americans, can even name the last five people to hold the post of deputy secretary of State. And not all deputies have been power players. "Who remembers Kissinger's deputy?" asked Gary Schmitt, executive director of the neoconservative Project for the New American Century.
Nevertheless, under the most recent No. 2s â current deputy Richard L. Armitage and Clinton-era deputy Strobe Talbott â the job has been one of the most powerful in Washington. The deputy secretary manages the vast State Department bureaucracy and all of its embassies and consulates, keeps global problems from becoming global crises, puts policy stamp on all but the most crucial issues and is supposed to be the secretary's most trusted advisor.
Because Bush's foreign policies have been so controversial â and because Rice in her tenure as White House national security advisor appears to have sided sometimes with the neoconservatives and sometimes with the realist camp â the deputy's post is topic A of diplomatic speculation.
Foreign officials are pumping their American contacts for insights in reading the tea leaves. And amid talk of purges of State Department officials who are seen as "not on board" with the president's policies, the deputy's job has prompted fear and loathing among some inside the sprawling State building â so much so that several officials refused to discuss it even on condition of anonymity.
A prominent neoconservative who served in a former administration said some of that fear was justified.
"A lot of people that were in the State Department [under Secretary Colin L. Powell] had an incredibly free hand to dissent, to drag their heels and to be obstructionist about the president's policy," the former administration official said. "Needless to say, they're worried that Condi is being put in as secretary of State to end that â and they'd be right."
Some predict there could be considerable turnover as a result of the departure of Powell, who resigned after Bush won reelection.
"There's going to be a big turnover," said a Department of Defense (news - web sites) official, who compared the coming housecleaning to the "de-Baathification" process in Iraq (news - web sites) and to the shakeups underway at the CIA (news - web sites) under its new director, Porter J. Goss.
"No. 2 is critical because No. 2 is usually the ax man," the official added.
Those closest to the Bush administration say they have no idea who will be chosen, or even whether names in the rumor mill are really the leading contenders for the job.
But those most often mentioned as candidates for the job include:
⢠John R. Bolton, undersecretary of State for arms control and international security, is the neoconservatives' choice. Tough, outspoken and loyal, Bolton is believed to be favored by Vice President Dick Cheney (news - web sites). But he is feared by many of the State Department rank and file.
⢠Arnold Kanter, who held the No. 3 job in the State Department in the early 1990s under President George H.W. Bush. Kanter, a principal with the consulting group run by onetime national security advisor Brent Scowcroft, is seen as a foreign policy realist. But his boss, Scowcroft, publicly opposed the Iraq war. Kanter would be welcomed by many at the State Department, but Cheney is rumored to oppose him.
⢠Robert M. Kimmitt, who preceded Kanter as No. 3 at State under Bush's father and was later U.S. ambassador to Germany, is a senior executive and lobbyist for Time Warner Inc. He is seen as a traditional conservative but is said to be on good terms with the neoconservative camp.
⢠Elliott Abrams, who is working for Rice on Middle Eastern affairs at the National Security Council, is a hawk. Rice is said to be closer to him than any of the other candidates. He is seen as likely to accompany Rice to State in some capacity because of the importance of Middle East diplomacy during Bush's second term. But Abrams, who pleaded guilty to misdemeanor charges of failing to answer questions truthfully to Congress during the Iran-Contra scandal, might not want to subject himself to a combative Senate confirmation hearing (news - web sites).
The last five deputy secretaries of State are: Armitage, Talbott, Clifton Wharton Jr., Lawrence S. Eagleburger and John C. Whitehead. Henry Kissinger had three deputies, Kenneth Rush, Robert S. Ingersoll and Charles W. Robinson.
Sun Dec 12, 7:55 AM ET
Add to My Yahoo! Top Stories - Los Angeles Times
By Sonni Efron Times Staff Writer
WASHINGTON â One of the most talked-about jobs in Washington might not register with most Americans. But as President Bush (news - web sites) rebuilds his Cabinet for his second term, Beltway cognoscenti are focusing on the unfilled No. 2 job at the State Department for clues about the direction of foreign policy.
To those who study the frequently secretive Bush administration's moves in the hope of divining its intentions, Secretary of State-designate Condoleezza Rice (news - web sites)'s choice for her top deputy will be crucial.
"It's a Washington exercise, but not an unimportant Washington exercise," said Morton Abramowitz, a former U.S. ambassador to Turkey and Thailand now with the Council on Foreign Relations. "The fact that the country doesn't pay attention to it doesn't mean it's not important."
If Rice picks a neoconservative as her deputy, Washington insiders predict business as usual: a hard-nosed foreign policy with President Bush continuing to wage the war on terrorism on his own terms. Conservatives would hail a hawkish appointee as a person who "recognizes that we are living in a post-Sept. 11 world," while liberals would rant about "four more wars."
If the No. 2 job goes to someone considered to be a pragmatic realist â especially one who served under the president's father â then liberals will hail a kinder, more multilateral foreign policy, while conservatives will hyperventilate about the danger that the president's policies won't be carried out by weak-kneed State Department bureaucrats.
Few Washingtonians, let alone most other Americans, can even name the last five people to hold the post of deputy secretary of State. And not all deputies have been power players. "Who remembers Kissinger's deputy?" asked Gary Schmitt, executive director of the neoconservative Project for the New American Century.
Nevertheless, under the most recent No. 2s â current deputy Richard L. Armitage and Clinton-era deputy Strobe Talbott â the job has been one of the most powerful in Washington. The deputy secretary manages the vast State Department bureaucracy and all of its embassies and consulates, keeps global problems from becoming global crises, puts policy stamp on all but the most crucial issues and is supposed to be the secretary's most trusted advisor.
Because Bush's foreign policies have been so controversial â and because Rice in her tenure as White House national security advisor appears to have sided sometimes with the neoconservatives and sometimes with the realist camp â the deputy's post is topic A of diplomatic speculation.
Foreign officials are pumping their American contacts for insights in reading the tea leaves. And amid talk of purges of State Department officials who are seen as "not on board" with the president's policies, the deputy's job has prompted fear and loathing among some inside the sprawling State building â so much so that several officials refused to discuss it even on condition of anonymity.
A prominent neoconservative who served in a former administration said some of that fear was justified.
"A lot of people that were in the State Department [under Secretary Colin L. Powell] had an incredibly free hand to dissent, to drag their heels and to be obstructionist about the president's policy," the former administration official said. "Needless to say, they're worried that Condi is being put in as secretary of State to end that â and they'd be right."
Some predict there could be considerable turnover as a result of the departure of Powell, who resigned after Bush won reelection.
"There's going to be a big turnover," said a Department of Defense (news - web sites) official, who compared the coming housecleaning to the "de-Baathification" process in Iraq (news - web sites) and to the shakeups underway at the CIA (news - web sites) under its new director, Porter J. Goss.
"No. 2 is critical because No. 2 is usually the ax man," the official added.
Those closest to the Bush administration say they have no idea who will be chosen, or even whether names in the rumor mill are really the leading contenders for the job.
But those most often mentioned as candidates for the job include:
⢠John R. Bolton, undersecretary of State for arms control and international security, is the neoconservatives' choice. Tough, outspoken and loyal, Bolton is believed to be favored by Vice President Dick Cheney (news - web sites). But he is feared by many of the State Department rank and file.
⢠Arnold Kanter, who held the No. 3 job in the State Department in the early 1990s under President George H.W. Bush. Kanter, a principal with the consulting group run by onetime national security advisor Brent Scowcroft, is seen as a foreign policy realist. But his boss, Scowcroft, publicly opposed the Iraq war. Kanter would be welcomed by many at the State Department, but Cheney is rumored to oppose him.
⢠Robert M. Kimmitt, who preceded Kanter as No. 3 at State under Bush's father and was later U.S. ambassador to Germany, is a senior executive and lobbyist for Time Warner Inc. He is seen as a traditional conservative but is said to be on good terms with the neoconservative camp.
⢠Elliott Abrams, who is working for Rice on Middle Eastern affairs at the National Security Council, is a hawk. Rice is said to be closer to him than any of the other candidates. He is seen as likely to accompany Rice to State in some capacity because of the importance of Middle East diplomacy during Bush's second term. But Abrams, who pleaded guilty to misdemeanor charges of failing to answer questions truthfully to Congress during the Iran-Contra scandal, might not want to subject himself to a combative Senate confirmation hearing (news - web sites).
The last five deputy secretaries of State are: Armitage, Talbott, Clifton Wharton Jr., Lawrence S. Eagleburger and John C. Whitehead. Henry Kissinger had three deputies, Kenneth Rush, Robert S. Ingersoll and Charles W. Robinson.