03-05-2009, 12:14 AM
Nightwatch's comments 3/3/09
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Globalization Special Comment:Â During travel two weeks ago, NightWatch discussed the implications of the global economic meltdown with some brilliant, well-informed and perceptive Readers. <b>The consensus was that globalization has reached its high water mark in this life time. The first signs of four major consequences are emerging in Latin American and Russia.</b>
<b>Decline in world trade. </b>A new article in the Economist details the drop in trade among global markets. <b>Specialization in a global market place is being replaced by generalization in local markets</b>. Thanks to a brilliant and perceptive Reader for the reference to the Economist.
<b>The second consequence is the rise in self-sufficiency movements and various forms of isolationism.</b>Â The decline in profits from specialization to compete in global market places will encourage a growth in the domestic production of goods to meet the demand for items that can no longer be obtained from the global market place. Prices for locally produced goods will increase, but localization of production will produce more and different jobs than globalization did. NightWatch expects regional markets to replace the integrated global market.
<b>More nationalizations.</b> The Bolivarian countries, led by Venezuela, have been ahead of the times in spearheading a revival of nationalization, but for socialist reasons. <b>Ecuador, Argentina, Bolivia as well as Venezuela have been in the lead in expropriating the assets of multi-national corporations and in rewriting the terms of business. Other nations will follow as the economic consequences bite deeper. No government can withstand the allegation that it has allowed foreign companies to prosper at the expense of the well-being of its own populace. Expropriation of multi-nationals is good politics and maybe good business, in the short term, irrespective of neo-socialism.</b>
<b>The fourth consequence is the rise of authoritarian governments promising reform and better times.</b> Strong willed leaders who promise reform, an end to corruption and a free lunch will sweep elections and sweep out pluralistic democracy. <b>The leading edge of this trend is Russia, Venezuela and Bolivia. Consultative, elected, deliberative government is too slow, too expensive, and too stodgy to respond effectively to emergency needs in poor countries. Demagoguery will have a new day.</b>
The high water mark of globalization and the high water mark of elected, pluralistic government both have been reached for now.
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<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Globalization Special Comment:Â During travel two weeks ago, NightWatch discussed the implications of the global economic meltdown with some brilliant, well-informed and perceptive Readers. <b>The consensus was that globalization has reached its high water mark in this life time. The first signs of four major consequences are emerging in Latin American and Russia.</b>
<b>Decline in world trade. </b>A new article in the Economist details the drop in trade among global markets. <b>Specialization in a global market place is being replaced by generalization in local markets</b>. Thanks to a brilliant and perceptive Reader for the reference to the Economist.
<b>The second consequence is the rise in self-sufficiency movements and various forms of isolationism.</b>Â The decline in profits from specialization to compete in global market places will encourage a growth in the domestic production of goods to meet the demand for items that can no longer be obtained from the global market place. Prices for locally produced goods will increase, but localization of production will produce more and different jobs than globalization did. NightWatch expects regional markets to replace the integrated global market.
<b>More nationalizations.</b> The Bolivarian countries, led by Venezuela, have been ahead of the times in spearheading a revival of nationalization, but for socialist reasons. <b>Ecuador, Argentina, Bolivia as well as Venezuela have been in the lead in expropriating the assets of multi-national corporations and in rewriting the terms of business. Other nations will follow as the economic consequences bite deeper. No government can withstand the allegation that it has allowed foreign companies to prosper at the expense of the well-being of its own populace. Expropriation of multi-nationals is good politics and maybe good business, in the short term, irrespective of neo-socialism.</b>
<b>The fourth consequence is the rise of authoritarian governments promising reform and better times.</b> Strong willed leaders who promise reform, an end to corruption and a free lunch will sweep elections and sweep out pluralistic democracy. <b>The leading edge of this trend is Russia, Venezuela and Bolivia. Consultative, elected, deliberative government is too slow, too expensive, and too stodgy to respond effectively to emergency needs in poor countries. Demagoguery will have a new day.</b>
The high water mark of globalization and the high water mark of elected, pluralistic government both have been reached for now.
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