03-30-2009, 06:12 AM
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><b>Voter choice is changing</b>
Arun Nehru
pioneer.com
I am keeping the chart unchanged for this week although I must admit that there is a definite shift in voter preferences. But I need further confirmation of this before I can make the corresponding changes in the chart. I have little doubt that we are heading for a very stable Government, and if we look at the last two decades of coalition governance we will see that in the first 10 years we witnessed a great deal of confusion and three Governments came and went. The next 10 years resulted in stable formations in the shape of the NDA and the UPA. Both these political groupings completed their terms, and now we can look forward to another five years of coalition governance. Adverse situations bring out the best in leadership skills and I believe that with a favourable demographic pattern bursting with talent in every discipline, this is our opportunity to scale new heights of success.
Let us look at a few States where decisive trends are yet to surface. The battle in Uttar Pradesh is wide open, and the basic fight is between the BSP and the SP. <b>However, I do see a small window of opportunity for the Congress and the BJP. </b>According to conventional wisdom, the failure of the SP and the Congress to come to a pre-electoral understanding may help the BSP. But with a four-cornered fight in the State, there will be many surprises and both the Congress and the BJP can win a few more seats than expected. The minority vote may swing towards the Congress in constituencies where it has a chance of winning. Overall the party can win 10 to 12 seats in the State. The general perception that the Congress, though well short of a majority, will still be ahead of the BJP and has a better chance of enticing alliance partners, can influence the minority vote in some of the seats. But still, there is no telling what the final outcome will be in Uttar Pradesh.
<b>The situation in Bihar is favourable for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and the JD(U)-BJP combination. The JD(U) is way ahead but faces a determined challenge from the RJD-LJP alliance in the State. </b>And despite the chaotic situation in each of the parties I donât see too many changes in the chart. The situation in <b>Jharkhand is very different and the decision of the Congress-JMM alliance to fight the RJD may result in a sweep situation for the BJP-JD(U) combine. </b>The anti-incumbency trends are against the Congress-JMM in the State, and the allianceâs failure to work out a seat-sharing arrangement with the RJD gives the advantage to the BJP.
The situation is very fluid in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. These two States were largely responsible for the change in Government in 2004. Figures in Tamil Nadu will change dramatically, and with the PMK joining the AIADMK many a fringe party could join the anti-DMK combine in the coming months. Thus, it is quite possible that we may see a sweep situation in favour of the AIADMK in the State.
In Andhra Pradesh, in all three areas of the State, voting patterns may see changes in the immediate future.<b> In Telengana, which has 14 seats, the TRS-TDP-Left combine is presently ahead of the Congress.</b> The coastal districts of the State see a three way fight between the Congress, the TDP, and Chiranjeeviâs Praja Rajyam. And in Rayalaseema, the Congress is ahead of the TDP. Truly a mixed picture but the big three parties are attracting large crowds, and the voters may polarise either towards the Congress or the TDP-TRS combine in the coming days.
The picture in 2009 may not be very different from 2004. What will essentially change are the alliance partners. However, this will have no impact on governance patterns. The Third Front allies have kept their options open, and the Left Front with reduced numbers may well find itself isolated. It is high time the Marxists confine their Cold war arguments to the past. No political party, whether it is presently part of the UPA, the NDA or the Third Front, would like to stay out of the ruling coalition after the election. Thus, we can expect a great deal of political gymnastics once the results are declared in May.
We will have several surveys but this election will be very difficult to judge as every State is different. <b>The margins will be very tight and we can expect many a surprise. After, all there is no such thing as an easy election</b>.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Arun Nehru
pioneer.com
I am keeping the chart unchanged for this week although I must admit that there is a definite shift in voter preferences. But I need further confirmation of this before I can make the corresponding changes in the chart. I have little doubt that we are heading for a very stable Government, and if we look at the last two decades of coalition governance we will see that in the first 10 years we witnessed a great deal of confusion and three Governments came and went. The next 10 years resulted in stable formations in the shape of the NDA and the UPA. Both these political groupings completed their terms, and now we can look forward to another five years of coalition governance. Adverse situations bring out the best in leadership skills and I believe that with a favourable demographic pattern bursting with talent in every discipline, this is our opportunity to scale new heights of success.
Let us look at a few States where decisive trends are yet to surface. The battle in Uttar Pradesh is wide open, and the basic fight is between the BSP and the SP. <b>However, I do see a small window of opportunity for the Congress and the BJP. </b>According to conventional wisdom, the failure of the SP and the Congress to come to a pre-electoral understanding may help the BSP. But with a four-cornered fight in the State, there will be many surprises and both the Congress and the BJP can win a few more seats than expected. The minority vote may swing towards the Congress in constituencies where it has a chance of winning. Overall the party can win 10 to 12 seats in the State. The general perception that the Congress, though well short of a majority, will still be ahead of the BJP and has a better chance of enticing alliance partners, can influence the minority vote in some of the seats. But still, there is no telling what the final outcome will be in Uttar Pradesh.
<b>The situation in Bihar is favourable for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and the JD(U)-BJP combination. The JD(U) is way ahead but faces a determined challenge from the RJD-LJP alliance in the State. </b>And despite the chaotic situation in each of the parties I donât see too many changes in the chart. The situation in <b>Jharkhand is very different and the decision of the Congress-JMM alliance to fight the RJD may result in a sweep situation for the BJP-JD(U) combine. </b>The anti-incumbency trends are against the Congress-JMM in the State, and the allianceâs failure to work out a seat-sharing arrangement with the RJD gives the advantage to the BJP.
The situation is very fluid in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. These two States were largely responsible for the change in Government in 2004. Figures in Tamil Nadu will change dramatically, and with the PMK joining the AIADMK many a fringe party could join the anti-DMK combine in the coming months. Thus, it is quite possible that we may see a sweep situation in favour of the AIADMK in the State.
In Andhra Pradesh, in all three areas of the State, voting patterns may see changes in the immediate future.<b> In Telengana, which has 14 seats, the TRS-TDP-Left combine is presently ahead of the Congress.</b> The coastal districts of the State see a three way fight between the Congress, the TDP, and Chiranjeeviâs Praja Rajyam. And in Rayalaseema, the Congress is ahead of the TDP. Truly a mixed picture but the big three parties are attracting large crowds, and the voters may polarise either towards the Congress or the TDP-TRS combine in the coming days.
The picture in 2009 may not be very different from 2004. What will essentially change are the alliance partners. However, this will have no impact on governance patterns. The Third Front allies have kept their options open, and the Left Front with reduced numbers may well find itself isolated. It is high time the Marxists confine their Cold war arguments to the past. No political party, whether it is presently part of the UPA, the NDA or the Third Front, would like to stay out of the ruling coalition after the election. Thus, we can expect a great deal of political gymnastics once the results are declared in May.
We will have several surveys but this election will be very difficult to judge as every State is different. <b>The margins will be very tight and we can expect many a surprise. After, all there is no such thing as an easy election</b>.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->