2009 -- India Election -

[Guest]

link
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Arun Nehru estimates about 190 parliamentary seats to both the groupings.  Outlook estimates about175 seats to NDA and about 200 seats to UPA.  Swapan Dasgupta quotes others (an intelligence office and a pollster), “One IB estimate received late last night says BJP 147, Congress 139. This may explain the stream of overtures from the Congress to the Left.  A pollster whose conclusions are contrarian (but often accurate) says that of the 457 seats polled to date, the projections are: BJP 154 and allies 42, Congress 123 and (pre-poll allies) 24. This makes it NDA 196, UPA 147.”

Probably, NDTV said it best.  NDTV estimates highly elasticitiy.  For every 1 perecent change in the popular vote, there is likley to be a change in 20 parliamentary seats.  No surveys or estimates can honestly detect 2-3 percent changes in the popular vote — even in a very rigorous statistical measurement and estimation, a 2-3 percent standard error is very likely.
<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->