05-22-2009, 10:04 PM
There are three things we need to undestand.
1. Strengthening of BJP in current format is next to impossible. If we keep a 15 year program then by that time there is nothing to salvage. (please refer to my elections 2009 excell)
IN 248 Seats out of 543 The chances of BJP/NDA winning in the next three general elections is nill. This is a 45% of the seats where BJP/NDA cannot have any influence. Totally 9 states out of 23 states BJP/NDA cannot have any representation this is 39% of the states. Now in 297 seats remaining to get 271 magic figure including NDA is next to impossible on any count. (AP 42, Delhi 7, JK 6, Kerala 20, NE states 1, TN 39, Union Territories 6, West Bengal 42, UP 75).
The SDF factor worked in AP very well in swinging 60 seats with thin majorities. The same thing worked in Three states where for the last 5 years a concecrated efforts are made resources pledged and spent to achieve 1% to 2% change in SDF. Every one is caught unaware including communists in this game as this is perpetuated in the communist states only.
The UPA got 60 Parliamentary seats extra and this did not cut in to NDA allies. Over all loss of BJP in this election is NDA allies gain and the actual seat tally is close to that of last time. Infact Karnataka was swept by BJP as the lok sabha elections were held just in months of state elections in which BJP swept. THe same is true with Rajastan where congress swept. This is anti incumbency as the state and central elections were held in months apart.
SDF and elections:
As communists rightly analysed and concluded that the new minority vote played a major role in their debacle.
IN AP in the last 5 years 1% of the total population is subjected to SDF (Spiritual Displacement). Their faith from one spiritual entity is shifted to another spiritual entity. 1 % of the voter population is around 57 Lakhs in AP alone. This is precisely the swing in the areas where it is assume UPA will loose. IN sixty seinsitive constituencies if we disperse 57 lakh voters it come to 100 000 votes per assembly segment. All these voters were issued voter cards and a systematic attempt is made to bring them to pools. It is a 5 year work. Actually there may be more assembly segments in which these are spread but we are taking a rough idea the details will come out in next three months.
In AP there is 60 seat swing.
The exception is UPA gaininig extra 60 seats. These seats came from Kerala, West Bengal, UP. Pecisely from Kerala 13, Bengal 21, UP 21. AP 7 (last time it was 25 this time with vote count decreasing they got 32) and TN 21 (we are taking the bulk shift minor variations are always considered soon). The other vote banks are same. This extra vote is due to SDF as the communists analysed.
THe same thing is 2% swing in national elections with the efforts being concnetrated for SDF in Kerala, WB and poorest regions of UP. 2% swing in parliament will give any where 150000 - 200 000 vote advantage in parliamentary segment. As this efforts are concentrated in Coimmunist states and AP nothing seem unusual. As NDA is non existant in these states none got a wind of any thing till the end.
Even we failed to take this factor in to consideration in AP.
The same trends will appear with more SDF votes for next time.
Many want to strengthen the NDA but cannot. The only alternate is take the middle path and start constructive activism on issues like somebody stated in dual party system states. For example Lok satta in AP was able to muster 2% vote purely oin the issue of Dynasty rule and corruption. Most of the villagers too turned to Lok Satta and one MLA got elected. Same in TN with vijayakant getting 8% of votes. This is precisely we discussed when I was there. Though many donot agree it is the only way. He is right on dot that people of India not only believe that UPA NDA both are unfit to protect them against terrorism but also know that they are unfit to protect the economy also.
If NDA leadership is not in sink with reality so too UPA. But UPA has a powerful lobby gunning for more SDF votes as long as that goes they will definately come to power. Even if they get less votes in percentage thant NDA they will form the government.
1. Strengthening of BJP in current format is next to impossible. If we keep a 15 year program then by that time there is nothing to salvage. (please refer to my elections 2009 excell)
IN 248 Seats out of 543 The chances of BJP/NDA winning in the next three general elections is nill. This is a 45% of the seats where BJP/NDA cannot have any influence. Totally 9 states out of 23 states BJP/NDA cannot have any representation this is 39% of the states. Now in 297 seats remaining to get 271 magic figure including NDA is next to impossible on any count. (AP 42, Delhi 7, JK 6, Kerala 20, NE states 1, TN 39, Union Territories 6, West Bengal 42, UP 75).
The SDF factor worked in AP very well in swinging 60 seats with thin majorities. The same thing worked in Three states where for the last 5 years a concecrated efforts are made resources pledged and spent to achieve 1% to 2% change in SDF. Every one is caught unaware including communists in this game as this is perpetuated in the communist states only.
The UPA got 60 Parliamentary seats extra and this did not cut in to NDA allies. Over all loss of BJP in this election is NDA allies gain and the actual seat tally is close to that of last time. Infact Karnataka was swept by BJP as the lok sabha elections were held just in months of state elections in which BJP swept. THe same is true with Rajastan where congress swept. This is anti incumbency as the state and central elections were held in months apart.
SDF and elections:
As communists rightly analysed and concluded that the new minority vote played a major role in their debacle.
IN AP in the last 5 years 1% of the total population is subjected to SDF (Spiritual Displacement). Their faith from one spiritual entity is shifted to another spiritual entity. 1 % of the voter population is around 57 Lakhs in AP alone. This is precisely the swing in the areas where it is assume UPA will loose. IN sixty seinsitive constituencies if we disperse 57 lakh voters it come to 100 000 votes per assembly segment. All these voters were issued voter cards and a systematic attempt is made to bring them to pools. It is a 5 year work. Actually there may be more assembly segments in which these are spread but we are taking a rough idea the details will come out in next three months.
In AP there is 60 seat swing.
The exception is UPA gaininig extra 60 seats. These seats came from Kerala, West Bengal, UP. Pecisely from Kerala 13, Bengal 21, UP 21. AP 7 (last time it was 25 this time with vote count decreasing they got 32) and TN 21 (we are taking the bulk shift minor variations are always considered soon). The other vote banks are same. This extra vote is due to SDF as the communists analysed.
THe same thing is 2% swing in national elections with the efforts being concnetrated for SDF in Kerala, WB and poorest regions of UP. 2% swing in parliament will give any where 150000 - 200 000 vote advantage in parliamentary segment. As this efforts are concentrated in Coimmunist states and AP nothing seem unusual. As NDA is non existant in these states none got a wind of any thing till the end.
Even we failed to take this factor in to consideration in AP.
The same trends will appear with more SDF votes for next time.
Many want to strengthen the NDA but cannot. The only alternate is take the middle path and start constructive activism on issues like somebody stated in dual party system states. For example Lok satta in AP was able to muster 2% vote purely oin the issue of Dynasty rule and corruption. Most of the villagers too turned to Lok Satta and one MLA got elected. Same in TN with vijayakant getting 8% of votes. This is precisely we discussed when I was there. Though many donot agree it is the only way. He is right on dot that people of India not only believe that UPA NDA both are unfit to protect them against terrorism but also know that they are unfit to protect the economy also.
If NDA leadership is not in sink with reality so too UPA. But UPA has a powerful lobby gunning for more SDF votes as long as that goes they will definately come to power. Even if they get less votes in percentage thant NDA they will form the government.