What should the BJP do immediately? - Swapan Dasgupta
* Recognise the magnitude of defeat and not live in denial (as happened in 2004).
* There has to be some visible demonstration of the fact that the party has responded to the message. Advani was right to step down and the Parliamentary Board was wrong to reject it. There is still a very important role for Advani but his position is that of a mentor.
* There has to be a revamp of most state parties. Young, dynamic MLAs and MPs must be given organisational responsibilities.
* The RSS-non-RSS divide in the party must be bridged. Those who never attended shakhas can't be treated as second-class members.
* The BJP must focus on the policy debates in the coming two years. Interventions in Parliament must be given due importance. The Leaders of Opposition in both Houses must be chosen accordingly.
* The party needs to project a modern, cosmopolitan face as national president to woo back the middle classes. What is needed is a picture of wholesome sobriety. The sooner this is done the better.
* A culture of frankness and debate has to return to the party. The miscalculations resulting from telling the leadership what it wanted to hear were colossal.
* Modi has to add the OBC tag to his appeal. His pronouncements must become more measured. He has to work on his national acceptability.
* Stringent norms of fund collection should be set. The private war chests have caused havoc to the functioning of the party.
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Lok Sabha Elections
Election Analysis By BharatRight.com
There are many articles appearing in newspapers today, crediting Congress victory to reasons such as:
* Votersâ yearning for stability
* Voters' preference for progress (as Leftists lost heavily)
* Charisma of Gandhi family
* Rural prosperity and pro-poor policy
* Voter's rejection of BJP's communalism
* Pan-Indian national outlook by voters
Our detailed analysis suggests otherwise. This was clearly an election, which was a collection of individual state results. Admittedly, there was some undercurrent of support to Congress due to pro-poor policies. But, mainly Congress won in many states on parochial issues such as Muslim commualism, casteism etc. Each state voted based on local issues. Please click here for detailed analysis by each state.
Our detailed analysis suggests otherwise. This was clearly an election, which was a collection of individual state results. Each state voted based on local issues. Admittedly, there was some undercurrent of support to Congress due to pro-poor policies. But, mainly Congress won in many states on parochial issues such as Muslim commualism, casteism etc. Let us take each major state:
1. Uttar Pradesh â Congress did not perform better due to Rahul Gandhiâs charisma. As per exit polls, 6% Muslim voters switched from SP to Congress, in seats where Congress was more likely to win, instead of blindly voting for SP. Of course, farm loan waiver was a big issue too.
2. West Bengal â Congress/Trinamul has won all the seats on the Bangladesh border. This clearly suggests that Muslims deserted Leftists due to Singur/Nano controversy which primarily impacted local Muslims! So this is a pro-minority voting by illegal immigrants against development!
3. Bihar â In the neighbouring state, good performance by JD(U) was rewarded by voters.
4. Maharashtra â UPA won 29 seats in this state, mainly because of Raj Thackareyâs MNS, which won enough votes in 8-10 seats, to cause losses to BJP/SS. Without the UPA-sponsored MNS campaign, NDA would have won 29 seats.
5. Orissa â a vote for good governance by Biju Patnaik.
6. Punjab â even stevens considering anti-incumbency against Akalis.
7. Gujarat, MP, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, HP â BJP performed very well. They may not have swept elections, but won a decent majority in each state.
8. Rajasthan, Delhi, Haryana, Uttarakhand, Assam â These are the only states that Congress can claim to have won due to good performance. Of these, Rajasthan is a state that has traditionally flip-flopped every 5 years for Congress and against its opponents (old Janata party and now BJP). BJP swept 2004, Congress is merely returning the favour this year.
9. Karnataka â BJP turned in great performance.
10. Andhra Pradesh â If Chiranjivi factor had not been present, TDP/TRS would have unseated Congress. Another spoiler like Thackarey.
11. Tamil Nadu â Sri Lanka issue was the main driver why DMK managed to win, in a traditionally flip-flop state. Jayalalitha tried her best, but, Tamil sub-nationalism is a strong undercurrent.
12. Kerala â This is a state that has flip-flopped each and every election since 70s, and this one is just continuation of the trend. Congress did not have to do much to win.
We, therefore, believe that Congress has managed this election better, with the horse for each course. BJP, on the other hand, did not get right allies and could not neutralise spoilers. There is no strong national mandate in favor of Congress on economic, social or security issues.
* Recognise the magnitude of defeat and not live in denial (as happened in 2004).
* There has to be some visible demonstration of the fact that the party has responded to the message. Advani was right to step down and the Parliamentary Board was wrong to reject it. There is still a very important role for Advani but his position is that of a mentor.
* There has to be a revamp of most state parties. Young, dynamic MLAs and MPs must be given organisational responsibilities.
* The RSS-non-RSS divide in the party must be bridged. Those who never attended shakhas can't be treated as second-class members.
* The BJP must focus on the policy debates in the coming two years. Interventions in Parliament must be given due importance. The Leaders of Opposition in both Houses must be chosen accordingly.
* The party needs to project a modern, cosmopolitan face as national president to woo back the middle classes. What is needed is a picture of wholesome sobriety. The sooner this is done the better.
* A culture of frankness and debate has to return to the party. The miscalculations resulting from telling the leadership what it wanted to hear were colossal.
* Modi has to add the OBC tag to his appeal. His pronouncements must become more measured. He has to work on his national acceptability.
* Stringent norms of fund collection should be set. The private war chests have caused havoc to the functioning of the party.
-----------------
Lok Sabha Elections
Election Analysis By BharatRight.com
There are many articles appearing in newspapers today, crediting Congress victory to reasons such as:
* Votersâ yearning for stability
* Voters' preference for progress (as Leftists lost heavily)
* Charisma of Gandhi family
* Rural prosperity and pro-poor policy
* Voter's rejection of BJP's communalism
* Pan-Indian national outlook by voters
Our detailed analysis suggests otherwise. This was clearly an election, which was a collection of individual state results. Admittedly, there was some undercurrent of support to Congress due to pro-poor policies. But, mainly Congress won in many states on parochial issues such as Muslim commualism, casteism etc. Each state voted based on local issues. Please click here for detailed analysis by each state.
Our detailed analysis suggests otherwise. This was clearly an election, which was a collection of individual state results. Each state voted based on local issues. Admittedly, there was some undercurrent of support to Congress due to pro-poor policies. But, mainly Congress won in many states on parochial issues such as Muslim commualism, casteism etc. Let us take each major state:
1. Uttar Pradesh â Congress did not perform better due to Rahul Gandhiâs charisma. As per exit polls, 6% Muslim voters switched from SP to Congress, in seats where Congress was more likely to win, instead of blindly voting for SP. Of course, farm loan waiver was a big issue too.
2. West Bengal â Congress/Trinamul has won all the seats on the Bangladesh border. This clearly suggests that Muslims deserted Leftists due to Singur/Nano controversy which primarily impacted local Muslims! So this is a pro-minority voting by illegal immigrants against development!
3. Bihar â In the neighbouring state, good performance by JD(U) was rewarded by voters.
4. Maharashtra â UPA won 29 seats in this state, mainly because of Raj Thackareyâs MNS, which won enough votes in 8-10 seats, to cause losses to BJP/SS. Without the UPA-sponsored MNS campaign, NDA would have won 29 seats.
5. Orissa â a vote for good governance by Biju Patnaik.
6. Punjab â even stevens considering anti-incumbency against Akalis.
7. Gujarat, MP, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, HP â BJP performed very well. They may not have swept elections, but won a decent majority in each state.
8. Rajasthan, Delhi, Haryana, Uttarakhand, Assam â These are the only states that Congress can claim to have won due to good performance. Of these, Rajasthan is a state that has traditionally flip-flopped every 5 years for Congress and against its opponents (old Janata party and now BJP). BJP swept 2004, Congress is merely returning the favour this year.
9. Karnataka â BJP turned in great performance.
10. Andhra Pradesh â If Chiranjivi factor had not been present, TDP/TRS would have unseated Congress. Another spoiler like Thackarey.
11. Tamil Nadu â Sri Lanka issue was the main driver why DMK managed to win, in a traditionally flip-flop state. Jayalalitha tried her best, but, Tamil sub-nationalism is a strong undercurrent.
12. Kerala â This is a state that has flip-flopped each and every election since 70s, and this one is just continuation of the trend. Congress did not have to do much to win.
We, therefore, believe that Congress has managed this election better, with the horse for each course. BJP, on the other hand, did not get right allies and could not neutralise spoilers. There is no strong national mandate in favor of Congress on economic, social or security issues.