05-23-2009, 07:55 AM
<b>12 unsolicited revival tips for an ailing BJP </b>
Sumit Gulati & Neeraj Saxena, ET Bureau
Here are a few lessons that the BJP can take home from these elections:
· Fight to win, not win to fight Action Point: Hold a US style Presidential Primary. The winner in this primary, becomes the BJP candidate for the PMâs post. Once this is done, the others need to gracefully step back; the way Hillary Clinton did once Obama surged ahead. At the same time, get a fix on some mechanism to also groom potential ministers, particularly the key ministries and also have stated key policies you would pursue. Get your A team in place and do it NOW. Since BJP calls itself a democratic party (as against the ânon-democratic âones), it should walk its talk.
· The Perfect Delivery Action Point: Fix specific delivery targets for each Stateâs leadership, ones that are going to be visible and helpful in garnering the maximum votes the next time round. Pursue these targets relentlessly. Highlight achievements to the local people. And do that in a united manner, and unequivocally. Also, take it further down to your workers. Make the cadre accountable and responsible for elect ion results.
· Be a growing boy, Boost your reach Action Point: The moral of the story: BJP needs to grow on its own in size, reach, geographies and do this even in areas where their allies are strong. How dependance on allies can cripple them is evident in Orissa. What will be the BJPâs condition in Bihar if the JD (U) too dumps them is not difficult to visualize. Its next leadership needs to work assiduously towards building the party at the grassroots level. Allies should be a bonus. Plus, if you become big and have a good shot at getting and retaining power, they will come to you wagging their tails.
So, build, build and build. Identify 350-400 constituencies around the country where you stand a chance, and work hard on them right away. Spread yourself to other states. If BJP wants a chance in the next election, it ought to stop worrying and start acting right away, preferably right after its âChintan Baithakâ!
· Who am I? Why am I here? Action Point: First sit down and define what you are and what you stand for. Get your mission and vision statements clear. Your workers have to know what you stand for. And, after that, let no party member go out and contradict party position because he has a right to express his private opinion in public.
· Fevicol your beliefs Action Point: Stick to stated party positions and do not keep changing/vacillatin g as per the need and situation. This doesn't mean that you do not re-look some of the party positions in the recent past and see if you want to stick to them. Be flexible, but, at the same time, core positions are not meant to be shifted election to election.
· Cure yourself of Congressitis Action Point: Now that you have tasted the fruits of power, it is difficult for you to go back to your old self of coming across as selfless. But, do try to at least âlookâ less desperate. This also includes saying âBuzz offâ to criminals and history sheeters. Why should you be seen as the party fielding the maximum number of candidates with a criminal background? Is there is a dearth of eligible, young people in this country who can contest?
· While you are laid-off Action Point: We know you have the succession issue to battle out and that it will pre-occupy you because your `larger than lifeâ leaders never cared to develop and identify the second rung of leadership. But, coming back to point number one (which said that to become Prime Minister you have to win elections), it should be clear that you have to sort this out really fast.
· Connect on the ground, not on Facebook Action Point: Get your chappals out and start walking and connecting. Pack in your sun screen and water and get going to the muddy waters of roadless villages. Go taste the real India.
· (No more) Pursuit of Pettyness Action Point: Donât be petty. The ultimate objective of occupying the seat of power is to improve the lives of all Indians. Donât oppose anything that will achieve just that. It makes you look petty and short-sighted.
· Need to develop a ZooZoo strategy Action Point: How about BJP formulating a series of inexpensive ad and marketing campaigns from time to time (and not just during elections) that connect with the people while delivering the intent and the message with honesty? Are the âWar Roomâ controllers listening?
· Say no to astrologers and Bollywood stars, be the star.
· Be inclusive, love thy neighbour
At the same time, BJP needs to formulate an action plan that lets minorities know that their interests and development too will be ensured.
Instead of rhetoric, BJP needs to work sincerely towards taking them along; address their genuine concerns, have an action plan for their security and development while according them full freedom and rights, and yet not lose out on majority support. It may be tougher than said, but not impossible.
http://economictime s.indiatimes. com/quickieartic leshow/4559697. cms
\<!--QuoteBegin-acharya+May 22 2009, 10:04 PM-->QUOTE(acharya @ May 22 2009, 10:04 PM)<!--QuoteEBegin-->There are three things we need to undestand.
1. Strengthening of BJP in current format is next to impossible. If we keep a 15 year program then by that time there is nothing to salvage. (please refer to my elections 2009 excell)
IN 248 Seats out of 543 The chances of BJP/NDA winning in the next three general elections is nill. This is a 45% of the seats where BJP/NDA cannot have any influence. Totally 9 states out of 23 states BJP/NDA cannot have any representation this is 39% of the states. Now in 297 seats remaining to get 271 magic figure including NDA is next to impossible on any count. (AP 42, Delhi 7, JK 6, Kerala 20, NE states 1, TN 39, Union Territories 6, West Bengal 42, UP 75).
The SDF factor worked in AP very well in swinging 60 seats with thin majorities. The same thing worked in Three states where for the last 5 years a concecrated efforts are made resources pledged and spent to achieve 1% to 2% change in SDF. Every one is caught unaware including communists in this game as this is perpetuated in the communist states only.
The UPA got 60 Parliamentary seats extra and this did not cut in to NDA allies. Over all loss of BJP in this election is NDA allies gain and the actual seat tally is close to that of last time. Infact Karnataka was swept by BJP as the lok sabha elections were held just in months of state elections in which BJP swept. THe same is true with Rajastan where congress swept. This is anti incumbency as the state and central elections were held in months apart.
SDF and elections:
As communists rightly analysed and concluded that the new minority vote played a major role in their debacle.
IN AP in the last 5 years 1% of the total population is subjected to SDF (Spiritual Displacement). Their faith from one spiritual entity is shifted to another spiritual entity. 1 % of the voter population is around 57 Lakhs in AP alone. This is precisely the swing in the areas where it is assume UPA will loose. IN sixty seinsitive constituencies if we disperse 57 lakh voters it come to 100 000 votes per assembly segment. All these voters were issued voter cards and a systematic attempt is made to bring them to pools. It is a 5 year work. Actually there may be more assembly segments in which these are spread but we are taking a rough idea the details will come out in next three months.
In AP there is 60 seat swing.
The exception is UPA gaininig extra 60 seats. These seats came from Kerala, West Bengal, UP. Pecisely from Kerala 13, Bengal 21, UP 21. AP 7 (last time it was 25 this time with vote count decreasing they got 32) and TN 21 (we are taking the bulk shift minor variations are always considered soon). The other vote banks are same. This extra vote is due to SDF as the communists analysed.
THe same thing is 2% swing in national elections with the efforts being concnetrated for SDF in Kerala, WB and poorest regions of UP. 2% swing in parliament will give any where 150000 -Â 200 000 vote advantage in parliamentary segment. As this efforts are concentrated in Coimmunist states and AP nothing seem unusual. As NDA is non existant in these states none got a wind of any thing till the end.
Even we failed to take this factor in to consideration in AP.Â
The same trends will appear with more SDF votes for next time.
Many want to strengthen the NDA but cannot. The only alternate is take the middle path and start constructive activism on issues like somebody stated in dual party system states. For example Lok satta in AP was able to muster 2% vote purely oin the issue of Dynasty rule and corruption. Most of the villagers too turned to Lok Satta and one MLA got elected. Same in TN with vijayakant getting 8% of votes. This is precisely we discussed when I was there. Though many donot agree it is the only way. He is right on dot that people of India not only believe that UPA NDA both are unfit to protect them against terrorism but also know that they are unfit to protect the economy also.
If NDA leadership is not in sink with reality so too UPA. But UPA has a powerful lobby gunning for more SDF votes as long as that goes they will definately come to power. Even if they get less votes in percentage thant NDA they will form the government.
[right][snapback]97629[/snapback][/right]
<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Sumit Gulati & Neeraj Saxena, ET Bureau
Here are a few lessons that the BJP can take home from these elections:
· Fight to win, not win to fight Action Point: Hold a US style Presidential Primary. The winner in this primary, becomes the BJP candidate for the PMâs post. Once this is done, the others need to gracefully step back; the way Hillary Clinton did once Obama surged ahead. At the same time, get a fix on some mechanism to also groom potential ministers, particularly the key ministries and also have stated key policies you would pursue. Get your A team in place and do it NOW. Since BJP calls itself a democratic party (as against the ânon-democratic âones), it should walk its talk.
· The Perfect Delivery Action Point: Fix specific delivery targets for each Stateâs leadership, ones that are going to be visible and helpful in garnering the maximum votes the next time round. Pursue these targets relentlessly. Highlight achievements to the local people. And do that in a united manner, and unequivocally. Also, take it further down to your workers. Make the cadre accountable and responsible for elect ion results.
· Be a growing boy, Boost your reach Action Point: The moral of the story: BJP needs to grow on its own in size, reach, geographies and do this even in areas where their allies are strong. How dependance on allies can cripple them is evident in Orissa. What will be the BJPâs condition in Bihar if the JD (U) too dumps them is not difficult to visualize. Its next leadership needs to work assiduously towards building the party at the grassroots level. Allies should be a bonus. Plus, if you become big and have a good shot at getting and retaining power, they will come to you wagging their tails.
So, build, build and build. Identify 350-400 constituencies around the country where you stand a chance, and work hard on them right away. Spread yourself to other states. If BJP wants a chance in the next election, it ought to stop worrying and start acting right away, preferably right after its âChintan Baithakâ!
· Who am I? Why am I here? Action Point: First sit down and define what you are and what you stand for. Get your mission and vision statements clear. Your workers have to know what you stand for. And, after that, let no party member go out and contradict party position because he has a right to express his private opinion in public.
· Fevicol your beliefs Action Point: Stick to stated party positions and do not keep changing/vacillatin g as per the need and situation. This doesn't mean that you do not re-look some of the party positions in the recent past and see if you want to stick to them. Be flexible, but, at the same time, core positions are not meant to be shifted election to election.
· Cure yourself of Congressitis Action Point: Now that you have tasted the fruits of power, it is difficult for you to go back to your old self of coming across as selfless. But, do try to at least âlookâ less desperate. This also includes saying âBuzz offâ to criminals and history sheeters. Why should you be seen as the party fielding the maximum number of candidates with a criminal background? Is there is a dearth of eligible, young people in this country who can contest?
· While you are laid-off Action Point: We know you have the succession issue to battle out and that it will pre-occupy you because your `larger than lifeâ leaders never cared to develop and identify the second rung of leadership. But, coming back to point number one (which said that to become Prime Minister you have to win elections), it should be clear that you have to sort this out really fast.
· Connect on the ground, not on Facebook Action Point: Get your chappals out and start walking and connecting. Pack in your sun screen and water and get going to the muddy waters of roadless villages. Go taste the real India.
· (No more) Pursuit of Pettyness Action Point: Donât be petty. The ultimate objective of occupying the seat of power is to improve the lives of all Indians. Donât oppose anything that will achieve just that. It makes you look petty and short-sighted.
· Need to develop a ZooZoo strategy Action Point: How about BJP formulating a series of inexpensive ad and marketing campaigns from time to time (and not just during elections) that connect with the people while delivering the intent and the message with honesty? Are the âWar Roomâ controllers listening?
· Say no to astrologers and Bollywood stars, be the star.
· Be inclusive, love thy neighbour
At the same time, BJP needs to formulate an action plan that lets minorities know that their interests and development too will be ensured.
Instead of rhetoric, BJP needs to work sincerely towards taking them along; address their genuine concerns, have an action plan for their security and development while according them full freedom and rights, and yet not lose out on majority support. It may be tougher than said, but not impossible.
http://economictime s.indiatimes. com/quickieartic leshow/4559697. cms
\<!--QuoteBegin-acharya+May 22 2009, 10:04 PM-->QUOTE(acharya @ May 22 2009, 10:04 PM)<!--QuoteEBegin-->There are three things we need to undestand.
1. Strengthening of BJP in current format is next to impossible. If we keep a 15 year program then by that time there is nothing to salvage. (please refer to my elections 2009 excell)
IN 248 Seats out of 543 The chances of BJP/NDA winning in the next three general elections is nill. This is a 45% of the seats where BJP/NDA cannot have any influence. Totally 9 states out of 23 states BJP/NDA cannot have any representation this is 39% of the states. Now in 297 seats remaining to get 271 magic figure including NDA is next to impossible on any count. (AP 42, Delhi 7, JK 6, Kerala 20, NE states 1, TN 39, Union Territories 6, West Bengal 42, UP 75).
The SDF factor worked in AP very well in swinging 60 seats with thin majorities. The same thing worked in Three states where for the last 5 years a concecrated efforts are made resources pledged and spent to achieve 1% to 2% change in SDF. Every one is caught unaware including communists in this game as this is perpetuated in the communist states only.
The UPA got 60 Parliamentary seats extra and this did not cut in to NDA allies. Over all loss of BJP in this election is NDA allies gain and the actual seat tally is close to that of last time. Infact Karnataka was swept by BJP as the lok sabha elections were held just in months of state elections in which BJP swept. THe same is true with Rajastan where congress swept. This is anti incumbency as the state and central elections were held in months apart.
SDF and elections:
As communists rightly analysed and concluded that the new minority vote played a major role in their debacle.
IN AP in the last 5 years 1% of the total population is subjected to SDF (Spiritual Displacement). Their faith from one spiritual entity is shifted to another spiritual entity. 1 % of the voter population is around 57 Lakhs in AP alone. This is precisely the swing in the areas where it is assume UPA will loose. IN sixty seinsitive constituencies if we disperse 57 lakh voters it come to 100 000 votes per assembly segment. All these voters were issued voter cards and a systematic attempt is made to bring them to pools. It is a 5 year work. Actually there may be more assembly segments in which these are spread but we are taking a rough idea the details will come out in next three months.
In AP there is 60 seat swing.
The exception is UPA gaininig extra 60 seats. These seats came from Kerala, West Bengal, UP. Pecisely from Kerala 13, Bengal 21, UP 21. AP 7 (last time it was 25 this time with vote count decreasing they got 32) and TN 21 (we are taking the bulk shift minor variations are always considered soon). The other vote banks are same. This extra vote is due to SDF as the communists analysed.
THe same thing is 2% swing in national elections with the efforts being concnetrated for SDF in Kerala, WB and poorest regions of UP. 2% swing in parliament will give any where 150000 -Â 200 000 vote advantage in parliamentary segment. As this efforts are concentrated in Coimmunist states and AP nothing seem unusual. As NDA is non existant in these states none got a wind of any thing till the end.
Even we failed to take this factor in to consideration in AP.Â
The same trends will appear with more SDF votes for next time.
Many want to strengthen the NDA but cannot. The only alternate is take the middle path and start constructive activism on issues like somebody stated in dual party system states. For example Lok satta in AP was able to muster 2% vote purely oin the issue of Dynasty rule and corruption. Most of the villagers too turned to Lok Satta and one MLA got elected. Same in TN with vijayakant getting 8% of votes. This is precisely we discussed when I was there. Though many donot agree it is the only way. He is right on dot that people of India not only believe that UPA NDA both are unfit to protect them against terrorism but also know that they are unfit to protect the economy also.
If NDA leadership is not in sink with reality so too UPA. But UPA has a powerful lobby gunning for more SDF votes as long as that goes they will definately come to power. Even if they get less votes in percentage thant NDA they will form the government.
[right][snapback]97629[/snapback][/right]
<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->