06-05-2009, 07:05 PM
<b><span style='font-size:14pt;line-height:100%'>The most bogus election </span></b>
Aditya Sinha
The most famous rigged elections in Indiaâs history are probably the 1987 Jammu and Kashmir Assembly polls. Though the electoral malpractices impacted just 15-18 assembly constituencies out of a total 76, they destroyed the credibility of chief minister Farooq Abdullah (note: this columnist authored Dr Farooqâs biography), and though there is no official record of any electoral fraud, it is by now an article of truth in New Delhi that this bogus election caused the secessionist insurgency that still requires the deployment of half a million soldiers in J&K. This causality is too tidy an explanation of a festering political problem and doesnât answer one question: if rigged elections caused separatism, then why havenât the genuine elections of 2002 wiped separatism out? Anyway, the point is not to quibble over Kashmirâs problems, but to underline that though there is no official record of fraud, pick up any book about Kashmir problem and it will mention the 1987 elections as rigged.
The 2009 Lok Sabha polls in Tamil Nadu were not rigged but purchased. No prizes for guessing by whom. Cost estimates run around Rs 1,000 crore; the talk is that approximately Rs 600 crore contributed by âA. Kingâ, the rest by a man who even our mild-mannered prime minister wants to keep at armâs length. Sources say the operation to purchase voters began on May 10, and continued till the last vote was cast on May 13. But letâs face it, no crime has been committed; if the voters donât mind being bribed, then case closed (except for in one constituency where votes were counted, recounted and recounted before everyone was allowed to return Home. It stank of something stronger than just bribing voters).
Yet it is something that rankles the losers, though no one is speaking about this publicly because one, theyâre in a state of shock, and two, they know that the chief minister, Mr Kalaignar, will simply stick his tongue out at them and snigger âsour grapesâ. Some in the opposition have raised doubts about the reliability of electronic voting machines, but not to any effect.
Opposition politicians are not the only ones startled by the results. One newspaper baron, a recent target of Mr Kalaignarâs ire, averred on TV that a high turnout in Tamil Nadu meant a strong anti-incumbency wave. He further predicted that the ruling alliance in the state would lose over half its seats. This provoked loutish comments from one soon-to-be textile minister. Another channel featured exit polls conducted by Yogendra Yadav that were openly met with scepticism by the channelâs southern political editor. His public disagreement with his editor-in-chief was reckless â unless he was absolutely certain he was correct. Even Rahul Gandhi, whose political gambits have paid rich dividends, told the press his party would not mind tying up with the AIADMK post-elections. He obviously believed the DMK was going down. It is ironic that a man was wrong about a state with only 39 seats but correct about a state with 80 seats.
More important than how the DMK confounded everyoneâs expectations is how no one got wise to the money being spent even though one of the earliest irregularities detected in TN was the Rs 500-note-in-the-mail. The EC took action against some low-level cut-outs, but the real beneficiaries presumably laughed their way to Rashtrapati Bhawan. The stateâs chief electoral officer deserves the highest praise for such vigilance, for ensuring a level playing field, and for keeping the electorateâs faith in democracy.
Those who despair about what this means for democracy should take solace in the situation in my home state Bihar, which was once upon a time synonymous with booth-capturing, voter-impersonation and all-round muscle-power during elections. No one ever believed Bihar would get good governance, but times have changed and the days of muscle-power have passed. Bihar finally got good governance and the voters gave their stamp of endorsement in these elections. The dominance of money-power too shall pass and perhaps sooner than you think, considering two events this week.
One was M K Stalinâs promotion as deputy chief minister. Coming a day after M K Azhagiriâs induction into the UPA Cabinet, this is seen as a balancing act between Mr Kalaignarâs two sons. However, Stalin himself says itâs because his dad is ill. Ever since the Tiruchy election rally which sent Mr Kalaignar to the ICU, the old man has not been himself. Nowadays his health is fragile and he is said to find even conversation with officials difficult. He was too frail to fight for the portfolios and ministers he wanted. In Delhi he met only two Congress leaders, one of whom is The Trouble-Shooter and who curtly made the partyâs take-it-or-leave-it offer on number of berths and portfolios before politely rushing off for A Pressing Engagement. 2009 is no 2004, and the old man could do nothing about it.
Mr Kalaignar is preparing for his last bow and once he passes from the scene, warring factions in the family/DMK will use their stash not for the purpose of winning elections, but against one another to seize control of the party. No matter who comes out on top, all will come out damaged and debilitated, and then they will have to deal with the real threat to the familyâs future: Rahul Gandhi, a man who (in the other event of the week, the Cabinet expansion) openly declared his intention of reviving the party in TN.
Somehow, you canât help but feel that without Mr Kalaignar around, Rahul Gandhi is bound to meet with more success going at it alone in TN than he did even in UP. And with his party controlling the central government, it is unlikely that any amount of money-power by you-know-who will make a difference in the elections. So the phase of money-power in elections too shall come to pass, as will the phase of politics in Tamil Nadu based on bitter polarisations.
Immediately after the 1987 J&K elections, no one would have predicted the kind of violence that would soon engulf the state. Tamil Nadu has a different set of circumstances, and the consequences of the 2009 Lok Sabha elections in the state will obviously be different, but there will be consequences, even if theyâre of the âHe who lives by the money-power dies by the money-powerâ variety. And thus, like the 1987 J&K elections, these 2009 TN elections will become a part of folklore and faith as being one of the most bogus elections in Indian history.
About The Author:
Aditya Sinha is the Editor-in-Chief of âThe New Indian Expressâ and is based in Chennai
http://www.expressbuzz.com/edition/story.a...AA84nwcg==&SEO=
Aditya Sinha
The most famous rigged elections in Indiaâs history are probably the 1987 Jammu and Kashmir Assembly polls. Though the electoral malpractices impacted just 15-18 assembly constituencies out of a total 76, they destroyed the credibility of chief minister Farooq Abdullah (note: this columnist authored Dr Farooqâs biography), and though there is no official record of any electoral fraud, it is by now an article of truth in New Delhi that this bogus election caused the secessionist insurgency that still requires the deployment of half a million soldiers in J&K. This causality is too tidy an explanation of a festering political problem and doesnât answer one question: if rigged elections caused separatism, then why havenât the genuine elections of 2002 wiped separatism out? Anyway, the point is not to quibble over Kashmirâs problems, but to underline that though there is no official record of fraud, pick up any book about Kashmir problem and it will mention the 1987 elections as rigged.
The 2009 Lok Sabha polls in Tamil Nadu were not rigged but purchased. No prizes for guessing by whom. Cost estimates run around Rs 1,000 crore; the talk is that approximately Rs 600 crore contributed by âA. Kingâ, the rest by a man who even our mild-mannered prime minister wants to keep at armâs length. Sources say the operation to purchase voters began on May 10, and continued till the last vote was cast on May 13. But letâs face it, no crime has been committed; if the voters donât mind being bribed, then case closed (except for in one constituency where votes were counted, recounted and recounted before everyone was allowed to return Home. It stank of something stronger than just bribing voters).
Yet it is something that rankles the losers, though no one is speaking about this publicly because one, theyâre in a state of shock, and two, they know that the chief minister, Mr Kalaignar, will simply stick his tongue out at them and snigger âsour grapesâ. Some in the opposition have raised doubts about the reliability of electronic voting machines, but not to any effect.
Opposition politicians are not the only ones startled by the results. One newspaper baron, a recent target of Mr Kalaignarâs ire, averred on TV that a high turnout in Tamil Nadu meant a strong anti-incumbency wave. He further predicted that the ruling alliance in the state would lose over half its seats. This provoked loutish comments from one soon-to-be textile minister. Another channel featured exit polls conducted by Yogendra Yadav that were openly met with scepticism by the channelâs southern political editor. His public disagreement with his editor-in-chief was reckless â unless he was absolutely certain he was correct. Even Rahul Gandhi, whose political gambits have paid rich dividends, told the press his party would not mind tying up with the AIADMK post-elections. He obviously believed the DMK was going down. It is ironic that a man was wrong about a state with only 39 seats but correct about a state with 80 seats.
More important than how the DMK confounded everyoneâs expectations is how no one got wise to the money being spent even though one of the earliest irregularities detected in TN was the Rs 500-note-in-the-mail. The EC took action against some low-level cut-outs, but the real beneficiaries presumably laughed their way to Rashtrapati Bhawan. The stateâs chief electoral officer deserves the highest praise for such vigilance, for ensuring a level playing field, and for keeping the electorateâs faith in democracy.
Those who despair about what this means for democracy should take solace in the situation in my home state Bihar, which was once upon a time synonymous with booth-capturing, voter-impersonation and all-round muscle-power during elections. No one ever believed Bihar would get good governance, but times have changed and the days of muscle-power have passed. Bihar finally got good governance and the voters gave their stamp of endorsement in these elections. The dominance of money-power too shall pass and perhaps sooner than you think, considering two events this week.
One was M K Stalinâs promotion as deputy chief minister. Coming a day after M K Azhagiriâs induction into the UPA Cabinet, this is seen as a balancing act between Mr Kalaignarâs two sons. However, Stalin himself says itâs because his dad is ill. Ever since the Tiruchy election rally which sent Mr Kalaignar to the ICU, the old man has not been himself. Nowadays his health is fragile and he is said to find even conversation with officials difficult. He was too frail to fight for the portfolios and ministers he wanted. In Delhi he met only two Congress leaders, one of whom is The Trouble-Shooter and who curtly made the partyâs take-it-or-leave-it offer on number of berths and portfolios before politely rushing off for A Pressing Engagement. 2009 is no 2004, and the old man could do nothing about it.
Mr Kalaignar is preparing for his last bow and once he passes from the scene, warring factions in the family/DMK will use their stash not for the purpose of winning elections, but against one another to seize control of the party. No matter who comes out on top, all will come out damaged and debilitated, and then they will have to deal with the real threat to the familyâs future: Rahul Gandhi, a man who (in the other event of the week, the Cabinet expansion) openly declared his intention of reviving the party in TN.
Somehow, you canât help but feel that without Mr Kalaignar around, Rahul Gandhi is bound to meet with more success going at it alone in TN than he did even in UP. And with his party controlling the central government, it is unlikely that any amount of money-power by you-know-who will make a difference in the elections. So the phase of money-power in elections too shall come to pass, as will the phase of politics in Tamil Nadu based on bitter polarisations.
Immediately after the 1987 J&K elections, no one would have predicted the kind of violence that would soon engulf the state. Tamil Nadu has a different set of circumstances, and the consequences of the 2009 Lok Sabha elections in the state will obviously be different, but there will be consequences, even if theyâre of the âHe who lives by the money-power dies by the money-powerâ variety. And thus, like the 1987 J&K elections, these 2009 TN elections will become a part of folklore and faith as being one of the most bogus elections in Indian history.
About The Author:
Aditya Sinha is the Editor-in-Chief of âThe New Indian Expressâ and is based in Chennai
http://www.expressbuzz.com/edition/story.a...AA84nwcg==&SEO=