06-10-2009, 07:51 AM
<b>The changing face of India: BJP fading in Gujarat too!</b>
http://www.freepressjournal.in
M.V.KAMATH
The BJP presently is showing signs of fading in Gujarat. The BJP lost ground in Saurashtra, the region where it had swept the Assembly elections. Where and among whom did the Congress outdo the BJP in Gujarat? <b>Among Dalits (Congress won 62 per cent to BJP's 20 per cent), among Adivasis (Congress bagging 55 per cent to BJP's 37 per cent) and understandably among Muslims with Congress bagging 69 percent to BJP's 13 percent.</b>
It is over sixty years since India became independent and 1947 onwards we have had fifteen national elections. In these sixty odd years the mindset of the people has changed drastically. <b>Ideological concepts have given way to more prosaic ones like caste and creed and people now vote not on issues of merit but whether the candidate belongs to one's caste.</b>
So in Andhra Pradesh what is important is whether one is a Reddy,a Kamma, a Kapus, a Yadav, a Gowda, a Mala, a Madiga or a Muslim; in Tamil Nadu whether a candidate is a Thevar, a Vanniyar, a Mudaliar or an OBC, in Uttar Pradesh, to provide one more example, whether one is a Rajput, a Yadav, a Kurmi, a Lodh, a Jatav, an OBC or a Muslim.
Ideology hardly matters. Kalyan Singh's alliance with the Samajwadi party reportedly angered a substantial proportion of Muslims (18 per cent). The Congress gains among Kurmi-Koeris at the cost of the BJP is attributed to former Samajwadi Party leader Beni Prasad Verma joining it.
In Bihar, 69 percent of Brahmins voted for the BJP-JD (U), as did 80 percent of Rajputs, 62 per cent of Kurmi-Koeris and 58 percent of lower OBCs. Whom did the Yadavs vote for? Again for Lalu Prasad Yadav (65 per cent).
<b>Muslims would not vote for BJP.</b>
Infact, in Uttar Pradesh, according to a research paper published in The Economic & Political Weekly (16 May), the aim of Muslims was to consolidate their vote in the way the Dalit vote was put together by the BSP `so that the community can then call the shots, negotiating with other communities and parties for political power'.
Reportedly in Uttar Pradesh, Muslims have formed two parties, the Ulema Council (UC) and the Peace Party of India (PPI), with the aim of raising their voices "against oppression and injustice in a secular country". They are reported as saying: "We want to find out who stands with the victim and who stands with the oppressor".
The argument was that "before Independence 37 percent of Muslims had government jobs while that figure has now come down to 2 percent", quoted Maulama Khalid Rasheed Firenghaimahal, Naib Imam of Idgah, Lucknow. <b>Is the government - any government in India responsible for the large scale migration of upper class Muslims from India to Pakistan? Has any government deliberately discriminated against Muslims in admission to schools and colleges? Has it occurred to Muslims that the money spent on hundreds of madrassahs could well have been used to set up regular schools and colleges on par with government-sponsore d institutions? Has it ever been a matter of concern to Muslims that when they deliberately choose to separate themselves from mainstream India in dress and deportment with men wearing white skull caps and women wearing burqas, they are marginalising themselves knowingly or unknowingly? Would someone kindly explain the nature of `oppression' Muslims are suffering from, so that at least some efforts can be made by concerned citizens to halt it? Has any government levied a jiziya tax on them? In Uttar Pradesh, apparently, Muslims voted "for the strongest non-BJP candidate who can defeat the BJP".</b>
How nice! That will, no doubt, explain the success of the Congress in some Muslim constituencies.
<b>
Only it is a poor reflection on India that votes are cast not on ideological but on caste and religious considerations.</b>
According to The Hindu (26 May) which published a post-poll survey ( the NES 20098) carried out by the Lokniti team of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) in Andhra Pradesh, the Congress victory was by default, <b>the youth vote is a `myth'</b>,<b>considering that the pattern of youth vote did not vary significantly from that of the rest of the population</b>.
An equally interesting fact that has emerged is that while the Muslim support for the Congress and the Left fluctuated between 32 per cent in 1998 and 40 per cent in 1999, the support of Muslims for the Samajwadi Party has slipped from a high of 25 percent in 1996 to 10 percent in 2009, and that, apparently, had nothing to do with ideology.<b> Have we come to such a stage that ideals do not matter, caste identities do, and in Mumbai, at least, Maratha identity as well? </b>What hit the BJP in that great city was the intrusion into politics of the hate-filled Maharashtra Navnirman Sena which won no seat but ate into the BJP-Shiv Sena vote bank drastically? A sad fact to remember is that in the elections, leadership did not apparently matter.
<b>According to the survey what showed clearly is that Congress success did not mean that it was won either by Dr Manmohan Singh or Rahul Gandhi, let alone Sonia Gandhi. The impact of the Prime Minister on election results was "at best, modest". </b>But does the election results mean that it is the beginning of the revival of Congress? Not necessarily, according to the survey. The point is made that "<b>despite boosting its tally by an impressive 61 seats, the Congress did this by increasing its vote share by a mere 2 percent of the vote, almost identical to its 1999 vote share.</b> That is something to ponder over. <b>What should alarm the BJP leadership is the finding that the party in power is in retreat in Gujarat. The survey makes two points: One, that the BJP is no longer the small but crucial player that it used to be in some states, and secondly, the party presently is showing signs of fading in Gujarat.</b>
The BJP lost ground in Saurashtra, the region where it had swept the Assembly elections. Where and among whom did the Congress outdo the BJP in Gujarat? Among Dalits (Congress won 62 per cent to BJP's 20 per cent), among Adivasis (Congress bagging 55 per cent to BJP's 37 per cent) and understandably among Muslims with Congress bagging 69 percent to BJP's 13 percent.
<b>
According to the survey, it was Narendra Modi's "continuing popularity" that enabled the BJP to stem the tide.</b> He remains the preferred choice for the Chief Minister's job with 45 per cent of the respondents voting for him with no rival crossing the 10 per cent mark. But the party's massive lead of over 10 percentage points over the Congress in the 1990s has shrunk to only 3 percentage points in the last two Lok Sabha elections.
The point is that for the BJP the danger light is on. Summing up the situation for the BJP, the survey says: ``It is a party with a smaller catchment areas, a declining capacity to reach out to newer groups...perhaps it is time for the party to ask the Big question: Aren't these limitations related to the narrow and divisive approach the party has espoused?" Good question. It is for the current - and second generation BJP leadership to ponder over it. It has another five years to re-establish itself, and certainly it is not an impossible task.
http://www.freepressjournal.in
M.V.KAMATH
The BJP presently is showing signs of fading in Gujarat. The BJP lost ground in Saurashtra, the region where it had swept the Assembly elections. Where and among whom did the Congress outdo the BJP in Gujarat? <b>Among Dalits (Congress won 62 per cent to BJP's 20 per cent), among Adivasis (Congress bagging 55 per cent to BJP's 37 per cent) and understandably among Muslims with Congress bagging 69 percent to BJP's 13 percent.</b>
It is over sixty years since India became independent and 1947 onwards we have had fifteen national elections. In these sixty odd years the mindset of the people has changed drastically. <b>Ideological concepts have given way to more prosaic ones like caste and creed and people now vote not on issues of merit but whether the candidate belongs to one's caste.</b>
So in Andhra Pradesh what is important is whether one is a Reddy,a Kamma, a Kapus, a Yadav, a Gowda, a Mala, a Madiga or a Muslim; in Tamil Nadu whether a candidate is a Thevar, a Vanniyar, a Mudaliar or an OBC, in Uttar Pradesh, to provide one more example, whether one is a Rajput, a Yadav, a Kurmi, a Lodh, a Jatav, an OBC or a Muslim.
Ideology hardly matters. Kalyan Singh's alliance with the Samajwadi party reportedly angered a substantial proportion of Muslims (18 per cent). The Congress gains among Kurmi-Koeris at the cost of the BJP is attributed to former Samajwadi Party leader Beni Prasad Verma joining it.
In Bihar, 69 percent of Brahmins voted for the BJP-JD (U), as did 80 percent of Rajputs, 62 per cent of Kurmi-Koeris and 58 percent of lower OBCs. Whom did the Yadavs vote for? Again for Lalu Prasad Yadav (65 per cent).
<b>Muslims would not vote for BJP.</b>
Infact, in Uttar Pradesh, according to a research paper published in The Economic & Political Weekly (16 May), the aim of Muslims was to consolidate their vote in the way the Dalit vote was put together by the BSP `so that the community can then call the shots, negotiating with other communities and parties for political power'.
Reportedly in Uttar Pradesh, Muslims have formed two parties, the Ulema Council (UC) and the Peace Party of India (PPI), with the aim of raising their voices "against oppression and injustice in a secular country". They are reported as saying: "We want to find out who stands with the victim and who stands with the oppressor".
The argument was that "before Independence 37 percent of Muslims had government jobs while that figure has now come down to 2 percent", quoted Maulama Khalid Rasheed Firenghaimahal, Naib Imam of Idgah, Lucknow. <b>Is the government - any government in India responsible for the large scale migration of upper class Muslims from India to Pakistan? Has any government deliberately discriminated against Muslims in admission to schools and colleges? Has it occurred to Muslims that the money spent on hundreds of madrassahs could well have been used to set up regular schools and colleges on par with government-sponsore d institutions? Has it ever been a matter of concern to Muslims that when they deliberately choose to separate themselves from mainstream India in dress and deportment with men wearing white skull caps and women wearing burqas, they are marginalising themselves knowingly or unknowingly? Would someone kindly explain the nature of `oppression' Muslims are suffering from, so that at least some efforts can be made by concerned citizens to halt it? Has any government levied a jiziya tax on them? In Uttar Pradesh, apparently, Muslims voted "for the strongest non-BJP candidate who can defeat the BJP".</b>
How nice! That will, no doubt, explain the success of the Congress in some Muslim constituencies.
<b>
Only it is a poor reflection on India that votes are cast not on ideological but on caste and religious considerations.</b>
According to The Hindu (26 May) which published a post-poll survey ( the NES 20098) carried out by the Lokniti team of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) in Andhra Pradesh, the Congress victory was by default, <b>the youth vote is a `myth'</b>,<b>considering that the pattern of youth vote did not vary significantly from that of the rest of the population</b>.
An equally interesting fact that has emerged is that while the Muslim support for the Congress and the Left fluctuated between 32 per cent in 1998 and 40 per cent in 1999, the support of Muslims for the Samajwadi Party has slipped from a high of 25 percent in 1996 to 10 percent in 2009, and that, apparently, had nothing to do with ideology.<b> Have we come to such a stage that ideals do not matter, caste identities do, and in Mumbai, at least, Maratha identity as well? </b>What hit the BJP in that great city was the intrusion into politics of the hate-filled Maharashtra Navnirman Sena which won no seat but ate into the BJP-Shiv Sena vote bank drastically? A sad fact to remember is that in the elections, leadership did not apparently matter.
<b>According to the survey what showed clearly is that Congress success did not mean that it was won either by Dr Manmohan Singh or Rahul Gandhi, let alone Sonia Gandhi. The impact of the Prime Minister on election results was "at best, modest". </b>But does the election results mean that it is the beginning of the revival of Congress? Not necessarily, according to the survey. The point is made that "<b>despite boosting its tally by an impressive 61 seats, the Congress did this by increasing its vote share by a mere 2 percent of the vote, almost identical to its 1999 vote share.</b> That is something to ponder over. <b>What should alarm the BJP leadership is the finding that the party in power is in retreat in Gujarat. The survey makes two points: One, that the BJP is no longer the small but crucial player that it used to be in some states, and secondly, the party presently is showing signs of fading in Gujarat.</b>
The BJP lost ground in Saurashtra, the region where it had swept the Assembly elections. Where and among whom did the Congress outdo the BJP in Gujarat? Among Dalits (Congress won 62 per cent to BJP's 20 per cent), among Adivasis (Congress bagging 55 per cent to BJP's 37 per cent) and understandably among Muslims with Congress bagging 69 percent to BJP's 13 percent.
<b>
According to the survey, it was Narendra Modi's "continuing popularity" that enabled the BJP to stem the tide.</b> He remains the preferred choice for the Chief Minister's job with 45 per cent of the respondents voting for him with no rival crossing the 10 per cent mark. But the party's massive lead of over 10 percentage points over the Congress in the 1990s has shrunk to only 3 percentage points in the last two Lok Sabha elections.
The point is that for the BJP the danger light is on. Summing up the situation for the BJP, the survey says: ``It is a party with a smaller catchment areas, a declining capacity to reach out to newer groups...perhaps it is time for the party to ask the Big question: Aren't these limitations related to the narrow and divisive approach the party has espoused?" Good question. It is for the current - and second generation BJP leadership to ponder over it. It has another five years to re-establish itself, and certainly it is not an impossible task.