10-28-2009, 10:38 PM
X-posted from BRF.
Philip wrote.....
(Cross posted exceprt from the China thread.)
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Interestingly on the BBC's Hard Talk this morning,Richard Perle and Ambassador Burke were exchanging their different viewpoints on Obama's international nuclear disarmement plans,with neo-con Perle saying that it was impossible to achieve (total N-disarmament by 2030).The Pak,India ,China N-triangle was discussed and the fear of states like Pak,having their nukes ending up in terrorist hands.Burke was firmly of the view that the two superpowers,the US and Russia could start the process by reducing their arsenals (possessing 94% of the world's N-weapons),which could see a possible cap on the N-ambitions of the other N-powers.If there was no progress on this front,in anotherd ecade or two we could see about 20 N-weapon states emerging.
This was also a feature of the latest USNI proceedings magazine (Oct.issue),where the "two Normans",Polmar and Friedman wrote on the IN's new toy,the Arihant and its significance.One view expressed was that the N-sub without a credible TN warhead (Santy's doubts analysed) on its missiles,could not be considered a successful strategic asset as modern cities were not made of wood like Hiroshima and Nagasaki,which is why large TN warheads were developed and deployed by the two superpowers and major N-powers with warheads "ten or more times their explosive power".The dilemma of India which definitely needed to test again to validate its TN designs (as it did not have access to the vast data that the US,Russia,China and others had which allowed them simulation capabilities while designing their weapons),without upsetting growing relations the US,etc.,was analysed.One view was that Pak actually had an advantage over India in this situation.We are at a signal disadvantage against China in strategic terms and the synergy of the Sino-Pak nuclear nexus has put us in an extremeley dangerous state of vulnerability.It appears therefore that to truly protect ourselves against attack from China,we must conduct a series of N-tests to validate our TN warhead designs for use on various sized missiles before we embark upon joining any international N-weapons cap,cutback,FMCT or test ban treaty.
Interestingly the ambassador mentioned "the father of the Indian bomb,KSub.",as saying that our acquisition of a N=deterrent did not bring with it the desired results vis-a-vis Pak,because Pak's N-weapons nullified India's conventional military superiority."
*I don't find this alleged viewpoint of KSwholly accurate as the Indian deterrent is also a guarantee against the PRC and that despite both sides having N-weapons,it was India's conventional military superiority that defeated Pakistan at Kargil!"
Has KS in the evning of his life gone over in his N-philosophy to the US side?
<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Norman Friedman:"A Great Equalizer?"
Friedman says that India's N-weapons have "Not enough Bang".
"The Indian scientists correctly described the1998 tests as a beginning rather than the achievement of full technical maturity."
"The problem for the Indians is that the current US govt. takes nuclear non-rpoliferation verys eriously.It is trying to convince countries not to test N-weapons.Although computer simulation may suffice for experuienced US and Russian wepaons deisgners,they certainly will not for those without much experience and without access to the sort of secrets US and Soviet (and Chinese) designers have learned."
*Now this means that the US and NATO nuclear weapon nations AND the Chinese have full access to TN warhead design secrets,but that India does NOT.It places us at a decided disadvantage,when China can launch a pre-emptive TN strike against us,safe in the knowledge that our missiles do not have TN warheads and cannot cause massive damage.
"They face a cruel dilemma because the US sees India as a key future ally,it is willing ,in theory,to sell the country much current technology.However,the equalizer against China,which the new submarine symbolises (ATV Arihant),requires exactly that kind of technology needing tests that would in turn cut off US non-nuclear weapons".
"Pakistan's advantage":
Pak has modified US supplied Harpoon missiles.The US has supplied Pak with weaponry to fight terrorism,ignoring Pak's very real ENMITY towards India and their desire at least to maintain a deterrence against India.
"In this test of will the Pakistanis enjoy an interesting advantage."
Mentioned as the supply corridor by land through Pak for the US/NATO forces to fight the war in Afghanistan.
"Just how much leverage does the US have as it tries to eliminate what the Pakistanis see as a vital equalizer against India,with which the country has fought four wars?"
Friedman also mentions Burma's N-ambitions and says that Burma is acquiring from and following the NoKO method of becoming a N-weapon state burying most of its N-installations in tunnels.
Truly we are on the horns of a dilemma.We want modern military tech,from the US if possible too.If we test this tech will become unavailable,but we will be at far greater risk from the Sino-Pak-NoKO nuclear proliferation axis where they have access to TN designs from China, while we cannot without testing validate our designs.
Therefore,there is no alternative to India having to test further in the future,a series of tests that can give us a variety of TN designs with which to arm our delivery systems.Without a credible TN warhead,the ATV/Arihant is in reality the equivalent of a stunted strategic dwarf!
To overcome any future US sanctions,we must therefore NOT rely on US military technology for major weapon systems for the future and acquire what we want from elsewhere.Russia,Israel and other EU nations might be less worried about an Indian TN testing event.The speed with which the O-Team is bent upon ushering in a N-free world and wants progress on the CTBT,FMCT,NPT etc,etc.,armtwisting nations into falling in line,means that the window of opportunity for India to test again is rapidly closing.
Philip wrote.....
(Cross posted exceprt from the China thread.)
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Interestingly on the BBC's Hard Talk this morning,Richard Perle and Ambassador Burke were exchanging their different viewpoints on Obama's international nuclear disarmement plans,with neo-con Perle saying that it was impossible to achieve (total N-disarmament by 2030).The Pak,India ,China N-triangle was discussed and the fear of states like Pak,having their nukes ending up in terrorist hands.Burke was firmly of the view that the two superpowers,the US and Russia could start the process by reducing their arsenals (possessing 94% of the world's N-weapons),which could see a possible cap on the N-ambitions of the other N-powers.If there was no progress on this front,in anotherd ecade or two we could see about 20 N-weapon states emerging.
This was also a feature of the latest USNI proceedings magazine (Oct.issue),where the "two Normans",Polmar and Friedman wrote on the IN's new toy,the Arihant and its significance.One view expressed was that the N-sub without a credible TN warhead (Santy's doubts analysed) on its missiles,could not be considered a successful strategic asset as modern cities were not made of wood like Hiroshima and Nagasaki,which is why large TN warheads were developed and deployed by the two superpowers and major N-powers with warheads "ten or more times their explosive power".The dilemma of India which definitely needed to test again to validate its TN designs (as it did not have access to the vast data that the US,Russia,China and others had which allowed them simulation capabilities while designing their weapons),without upsetting growing relations the US,etc.,was analysed.One view was that Pak actually had an advantage over India in this situation.We are at a signal disadvantage against China in strategic terms and the synergy of the Sino-Pak nuclear nexus has put us in an extremeley dangerous state of vulnerability.It appears therefore that to truly protect ourselves against attack from China,we must conduct a series of N-tests to validate our TN warhead designs for use on various sized missiles before we embark upon joining any international N-weapons cap,cutback,FMCT or test ban treaty.
Interestingly the ambassador mentioned "the father of the Indian bomb,KSub.",as saying that our acquisition of a N=deterrent did not bring with it the desired results vis-a-vis Pak,because Pak's N-weapons nullified India's conventional military superiority."
*I don't find this alleged viewpoint of KSwholly accurate as the Indian deterrent is also a guarantee against the PRC and that despite both sides having N-weapons,it was India's conventional military superiority that defeated Pakistan at Kargil!"
Has KS in the evning of his life gone over in his N-philosophy to the US side?
<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Norman Friedman:"A Great Equalizer?"
Friedman says that India's N-weapons have "Not enough Bang".
"The Indian scientists correctly described the1998 tests as a beginning rather than the achievement of full technical maturity."
"The problem for the Indians is that the current US govt. takes nuclear non-rpoliferation verys eriously.It is trying to convince countries not to test N-weapons.Although computer simulation may suffice for experuienced US and Russian wepaons deisgners,they certainly will not for those without much experience and without access to the sort of secrets US and Soviet (and Chinese) designers have learned."
*Now this means that the US and NATO nuclear weapon nations AND the Chinese have full access to TN warhead design secrets,but that India does NOT.It places us at a decided disadvantage,when China can launch a pre-emptive TN strike against us,safe in the knowledge that our missiles do not have TN warheads and cannot cause massive damage.
"They face a cruel dilemma because the US sees India as a key future ally,it is willing ,in theory,to sell the country much current technology.However,the equalizer against China,which the new submarine symbolises (ATV Arihant),requires exactly that kind of technology needing tests that would in turn cut off US non-nuclear weapons".
"Pakistan's advantage":
Pak has modified US supplied Harpoon missiles.The US has supplied Pak with weaponry to fight terrorism,ignoring Pak's very real ENMITY towards India and their desire at least to maintain a deterrence against India.
"In this test of will the Pakistanis enjoy an interesting advantage."
Mentioned as the supply corridor by land through Pak for the US/NATO forces to fight the war in Afghanistan.
"Just how much leverage does the US have as it tries to eliminate what the Pakistanis see as a vital equalizer against India,with which the country has fought four wars?"
Friedman also mentions Burma's N-ambitions and says that Burma is acquiring from and following the NoKO method of becoming a N-weapon state burying most of its N-installations in tunnels.
Truly we are on the horns of a dilemma.We want modern military tech,from the US if possible too.If we test this tech will become unavailable,but we will be at far greater risk from the Sino-Pak-NoKO nuclear proliferation axis where they have access to TN designs from China, while we cannot without testing validate our designs.
Therefore,there is no alternative to India having to test further in the future,a series of tests that can give us a variety of TN designs with which to arm our delivery systems.Without a credible TN warhead,the ATV/Arihant is in reality the equivalent of a stunted strategic dwarf!
To overcome any future US sanctions,we must therefore NOT rely on US military technology for major weapon systems for the future and acquire what we want from elsewhere.Russia,Israel and other EU nations might be less worried about an Indian TN testing event.The speed with which the O-Team is bent upon ushering in a N-free world and wants progress on the CTBT,FMCT,NPT etc,etc.,armtwisting nations into falling in line,means that the window of opportunity for India to test again is rapidly closing.