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What DNA Says About Aryan Invasion Theory -2
acording to Dienekes site

December 03, 2005
Ages of R1a1
(in kya)

Balkans: 15.8
India: 14.0
Oman: 11.4
Eastern Europe: 11.4
South Siberia: 11.3
Anatolia: 8.9
http://dienekes.blogspot.com/2005/12/ages-of-r1a1.html


If R-M458 had started expanding 10.7ky ago, then by the time of the early dispersals of Kurgan groups east, it would have been present among them, and we would expect to find it east of the Urals and in the Near East/Central/South Asia. To reconcile this age with the archaeological picture of west-east movements across the steppe seems impossible. However, the situation resolves itself neatly when we realize that J-P58 is only 3-4 thousand years old, and was not in existence at the time of the Kurgan expansion.

However, the paper also is inconsistent with an origin of R-M17 either in a glacial refugium or with the expansion of the Kurgan culture, as the diversity of R1a1a*(xR1a1a7) is not particularly high in either Russia or the Ukraine and is much higher in India and Pakistan:

Analysis of associated STR diversity profiles revealed that among the R1a1a*(xM458) chromosomes the highest diversity is observed among populations of the Indus Valley yielding coalescent times above 14 KYA (thousands of years ago), whereas the R1a1a* diversity declines toward Europe where its maximum diversity and coalescent times of 11.2 KYA are observed in Poland, Slovakia and Crete.


Hopefully we will not have to wait another decade for the R1a1a* chromosomes to be further resolved, and thus yield signal(s) specific to the archaeologically attested trans-Ural spread of the Kurgan culture and/or the Indo-Iranians.

Finally, structure in haplogroup R1a (Underhill et al. 2009)
I have lobbied for more structure in R1a to be discovered since the early days of this blog, and finally the R1a monolith seems to be cracking.

(Watch this space for my comments once I read the paper).

UPDATE (Nov 05):

This paper makes a very important contribution by studying the diversity and distribution of Y-chromosome marker M458 defining the new haplogroup R1a1a7.

R-M458 reaches high frequency and diversity in central and eastern Europe. It is virtually absent in northwestern Europe, the Near East, and Asia east of the Urals. The maximum frequency is reached in south (36.4%) and central (33.3%) Poland.

The earliest expansion time for R-M458 is found in Poland (10.7ky), but since the paper uses the effective mutation rate that I criticized elsewhere, this date should be divided by a factor of 3 giving an age of 3.6ky. This matches quite well the age for the Balto-Slavic split according to Gray and Atkinson. As with the recent paper on J-P58, adopting the germline rate makes excellent sense.
http://dienekes.blogspot.com/2009/11/final...ogroup-r1a.html
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