USA And The Future Of The World -II

[ramana]

<!--QuoteBegin-"ramana"+-->QUOTE("ramana")<!--QuoteEBegin-->We have studied Af-Pak for over a decade and still cling to psy-ops fro interested parties. If Af-Pak is not resolved suitably it will take down the Western domination of the world system. Its bigger than Korea, Vietnam and Cold War.<b> Its an assymetric war between two different world views.</b> The earlier examples were similar zero-sum situations.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Af-Pak region


<b>Indian Prespective:</b>

- Afghanistant shouldnt become safe haven for terrorists
- Afghanistan shouldnt become 'strategic depth' for TSP
- Afghanistan should be multi-ethnic, multi-cultural modern state
- Ensure Afghanistan does not become base for extremist/"guided" Islam

<b>TSP prespective:</b>

- Afghanistan should have a TSP friendly regime for following reasons:
- Settling Durand Line to prevent loss of NWFP
- Provide strategic depth for
- Terrorist camps
- Hide special weapons
- Hinterland for heroin growing

<b>Pashtun Prespective:</b>

- Any ruler in Afghanistan has to be a Pashtun as they created modern Afghanistan
- Eventually erase Durand line and regain lost lands to British India

<b>Non Pashtun Prespective:</b>
- Pashtuns should not dominate and impact their sub-nationalism:Tajik, Hazara, Uzbeg etc..

<b>US prespective:</b>

- Non Islamist govt in Afghanistan to prevent:
- Regrouping of Islamist forces like AlQ & 'bad' Taliban
- Provide bases for US forces for hedge against Central Asia and fracturing TSP
- Provide base for 'guiding' new ISlamist thinking in Central Asia

<b>PRC prespective:</b>

- Ensure TSP retains influence in Afghanistan to hedge rising India
- Ensure US is weakened due to Afghanistan to preclude Uigher revolt
- Ensure Afghanistan does not become base for extremist/"guided" Islam

<b>Iran prespective:</b>

- Ensure TSP does not dominate Afghanistan
- Ensure balance in Shia (Hazara interests) versus Sunni(Pashtuns) power
- Ensure Afghanistan does not become base for extremist/"guided" Islam

<b>Russian prespective:</b>

- Ensure Afghanistan does not become base for extremist/"guided" Islam
- Ensure Afghanistan keeps the US occupied

<b>Central Asian countries:</b>

- Ensure Afghanistan does not become base for extremist/"guided" Islam

<b>EU countries:</b>

- Ensure Afghanistan does not become base for extremist/"guided" Islam
- Ensure Afghanistan is not a heroin producing region

<b>Geographic prespective:</b>

- Afghanistan is the pivot of Central Asia.
- Pathway to conquer Indian sub-continent or Central Asia
- High mountains and challenging terrain
- Not much arable land
- Only three rivers: Helmand,Kabul and Herat

<b>History Prespective:</b>

- Afghanistan has been at cross roads of invasions of Indian sub-continent
- Afghanistan was declared a neutral country between the British and Tsarist Russia
- Afghanistan has suffered continuous turmoil and civil war since 1973 if not since Abdur Rehman in late 19th century

<b>Consequences of US failure in Afghanistan:</b>

- Extremist Islam wins and will roll over most of the current Islamic states
- Have high negative impact on Indian sub-continent
- Certain radicalization of TSP with its nuclear weapons
- Uigher uprising in East Turkistan
- Central Asian countries will be radicalized
- PRC will gain Asian domination but lose East Turkistan
- Russia might be rolled back to the Duchy of Muscovy
- Demoralized by the defeat in far away lands the 'malaise' in American politics could return leading to political wilderness a la Vietnam
- Drug trade will zoom on the supply side
- World globalization will suffer
- It could lead to loss of leadership as other challengers will emerge



What else?