12-26-2009, 12:46 AM
I wanted to post this in response to some speculations on available Indian fissile material.
Gagan: I think you are misreading the statement. At that time, except for 6 reactors, all others, i.e: 14, were not under safeguards. The separation agreement, put another 8 under safeguards. It did not mean that all the 14 non safeguarded reactors were actually being used for military purposes. The general understanding is that their potential for military use has been well understood, however, they were largely being used for civilian purposes. The PHWR's partial use to produce fissile material, would be an inefficient use of available resources and the best way would be, is to have dedicated reactors. The best public guidance for fissile material is a third coming from Cirrus, mentioned in our parliament by Arun Shourie to go by.
Almost ALL others are speculations of India's fissile material, by mostly foreign sources, based on the potential of the non safeguarded reactors, plugged into our civilian grid.
I do not have much evidence, based on Indian sources, beyond what has been publicly cited, but I believe the following, based on readings and understandings.
- Arun Shourie's estimates on Indian FM are correct, but older - pre - 1998 (the statement was made in 2006).
- Post 1998, at least some of the non safe guarded PHWR's are being used to produce fissile material, in partial burn mode
- It was the above, that concerned BM, in initially not endorsing the nuclear deal, however, the INC government assured BM, that they are continuing to produce FM in quantities, consistend with what the NDA regime did, which resulted in him endorsing the deal
My understanding is Dhruva continues to be the main stay for production of Indian FM, supplemented by the TFBR and the Cirrus, to be soon closed down and this gap to be fulfilled by the unsafeguarded PHWR's and as supplemental capability available, if needed.
India's fissile material production, is under the policy guidelines of the MCD. I believe, that K. Subrahamanyam's changes in the view from about 60 weapons needed for deterrence to about 150 weapons, has a direct correlation to the additional fissile material, India has produced. India's main stay of nuclear weapons are pure fission bombs. BF weapons are a high probability and TN weapons have not been deployed. The yields of India's atomic weapons are in the 15-80 KT range, appropriately configured for missiles and gravity war heads. BF weapons are reserved for Agni II AT and Agni III and upcoming Agni V. Shourya will likely have fission bombs and some version of Agni III, when ready for SLBM will have the BF weapons.
Based on the above assumptions, one can come up with some ranges, on what is the likely fissile material that India is likely to have, how much fissile material is used in such weapons but the numbers are only as good as the assumptions. The above assumptions can and should be challenged for I offer no proof and have none. Have fun, calculating these.
Gagan: I think you are misreading the statement. At that time, except for 6 reactors, all others, i.e: 14, were not under safeguards. The separation agreement, put another 8 under safeguards. It did not mean that all the 14 non safeguarded reactors were actually being used for military purposes. The general understanding is that their potential for military use has been well understood, however, they were largely being used for civilian purposes. The PHWR's partial use to produce fissile material, would be an inefficient use of available resources and the best way would be, is to have dedicated reactors. The best public guidance for fissile material is a third coming from Cirrus, mentioned in our parliament by Arun Shourie to go by.
Almost ALL others are speculations of India's fissile material, by mostly foreign sources, based on the potential of the non safeguarded reactors, plugged into our civilian grid.
I do not have much evidence, based on Indian sources, beyond what has been publicly cited, but I believe the following, based on readings and understandings.
- Arun Shourie's estimates on Indian FM are correct, but older - pre - 1998 (the statement was made in 2006).
- Post 1998, at least some of the non safe guarded PHWR's are being used to produce fissile material, in partial burn mode
- It was the above, that concerned BM, in initially not endorsing the nuclear deal, however, the INC government assured BM, that they are continuing to produce FM in quantities, consistend with what the NDA regime did, which resulted in him endorsing the deal
My understanding is Dhruva continues to be the main stay for production of Indian FM, supplemented by the TFBR and the Cirrus, to be soon closed down and this gap to be fulfilled by the unsafeguarded PHWR's and as supplemental capability available, if needed.
India's fissile material production, is under the policy guidelines of the MCD. I believe, that K. Subrahamanyam's changes in the view from about 60 weapons needed for deterrence to about 150 weapons, has a direct correlation to the additional fissile material, India has produced. India's main stay of nuclear weapons are pure fission bombs. BF weapons are a high probability and TN weapons have not been deployed. The yields of India's atomic weapons are in the 15-80 KT range, appropriately configured for missiles and gravity war heads. BF weapons are reserved for Agni II AT and Agni III and upcoming Agni V. Shourya will likely have fission bombs and some version of Agni III, when ready for SLBM will have the BF weapons.
Based on the above assumptions, one can come up with some ranges, on what is the likely fissile material that India is likely to have, how much fissile material is used in such weapons but the numbers are only as good as the assumptions. The above assumptions can and should be challenged for I offer no proof and have none. Have fun, calculating these.