Nuclear Deterrence

[Arun_S]

With MMS capping Indian nuclear deterrence by signing teh deal with USA, the next poor mans option is stated in this article, that will allow alternate way to build and test thermo nuclear device, (at least that will allow determining the debugged design is in really fixed or not): Keyword is



[url="http://www.indiaresearch.org/WayToACredibleDeterrent.pdf"]Way To A Credible Nuclear Deterrent -Arun Vishwakarma @ IRF[/url]

Thermo-nuclear (TN) warhead:

Also known as a multi-stage nuclear warhead. The first stage of a TN device consists of a Fission

or FBF nuclear explosive whose energy in the form of soft X-rays is used to ablate a heavy

pusher material to compress and ignite the second stage consisting of Deuterium (in the form of

Lithium Deuteride) to undergo nuclear fusion. Nuclear fusion generates highly energetic neutrons

that in turn cause fission in the surrounding third stage fissile material. The third stage fissile

material can be ordinary natural-Uranium or some other kind of enriched fissile material. Such

weapons give very high yield. Most of the yield is generated by the third stage. TN warhead have

far higher yield per unit mass of warhead, as well as consume smaller quantity of enriched fissile

material. This type of light weight warhead can be delivered over greater range even by a small

missile.



The POK-II tests demonstrated Indian mastery of fission and boosted fission nuclear weapons.

Thermonuclear experiment (Shakti-1) based credible warhead however requires confirmatory

test. Submarine compatible TN warhead also requires testing a TN design that uses only

enriched Uranium or super-grade Plutonium.



Public information and trade estimates indicate following types of Indian RV warheads:

1. Mk-4: For light weight 17Kt Fusion Boosted Fission (FBF) warhead5. Mass6: ~180 Kg7.

2. Mk-5: For 50Kt FBF or 200Kt Thermo Nuclear (TN) warhead8. Mass: ~340 Kg

3. Mk-6: For 150Kt FBF warhead9. Mass: ~550 Kg.

Table 1: Comparative destruction area



Warhead Yield Destruction w.r.t 17Kt

50 Kt 2.0

150 Kt 4.2

200 Kt 4.9

500 Kt 10.3



If India wants to accede to CTBT it must conclude following tests10 in next nuclear test series:

1. 5 to 7 tests involving FBF's and TN's warheads of 150 Kt and 300-500 Kt ranges

respectively.

2. 5 to 7 sub-Kt tests, to significantly improve the database for future ICF11 simulations.



Pending the verification of thermonuclear warhead the high-yield Boosted Fission warhead sets

the upper limit of Indian warheads, thus Indian missile range is often quoted for 1,000 Kg

payload.



“India-US Civil Nuclear Agreement” has for all practical purposes capped Indian ability to field test

and proof high yield nuclear weapons till some time in future (about 20 years) when Indian three

stage nuclear fuel cycle based on Thorium fuel matures into mainstream power production, thus

eliminating Indian dependence on imported nuclear fuel from NSG countries or if there is a

breakout in global nuclear test monitorium.



An alternative to field nuclear test for India is to test and validate the nuclear warheads by

building two or more National Ignition Test Facilities (NITF). Incidentally NIFT is also required for

stewardship of Indian Nuclear weapon.



Nuclear Stewardship and National Ignition Test Facilities

It is clear that nuclear weapons will continue to exist in world for the foreseeable future. In the

absence of underground testing, the reliability, safety, and effectiveness of the remaining

stockpile can be assured only through advanced computational capabilities and above-ground

experimental facilities.



Indian Nuclear Stewardship program will involve:

1. An organization that will stay potent and survive lifespan of today’s weapon designers,

fabricators and maintainers

2. Laser driven ICF (Inertial confinement fusion) experimental facility that strives to compress

fissile and/or fusion fuel isentropically before raising its plasma temperature to reproduce high

energy régimes encountered in boosted fission and fusion weapons. It is a potent tool in the

hands of nuclear weapons physicists.

3. Two teams of numerical modeling physicists who for a given weapon design partition and

validate weapon’s behavior model experimentally in various energy regime using ICF and

computer modeling. At least two independent teams are required keep the deterrence honest

and true12.

4. Full experimental verification of FBF and Thermonuclear designs that couldn’t be tested in

previous six years due to geo-political constrains.

5. Ensure credible enduring stockpile in spite of fissile material aging, replacement pit, newer

and safer chemicals for explosive lenses, arming and inertial containment.

6. Develop and proof test newer thermonuclear warheads using newer schemes other than

traditional TN devices using piston driven shock with a thermal precursor. P5 and other

western nations are doing these experiments, including the Chinese who have a fine laser

facility13 in Shanghai and another one for classified studies. These are the first steps to

achieving the Holy Grail – The FISSIONLESS TRIGGER.

7. Stay abreast with worldwide development of Fourth Generation weapons (Small yield fusion

nuclear weapons without fission chain reaction)14.

India requires two NITF facilities one for classified weapons programs and other for scientific

research in civil domain to unambiguously demonstrate Indian facilities and competence in high

energy physics to develop and test fusion weapons. This will make credible Indian high yield FBF

and TN weapons that are otherwise not field tested, thereby significantly increasing Indian

deterrence and at the same time reduces total number of weapons required for credible

deterrence. The NITF will cost the government about Rs.6,000 crore (US$ 1.3 billion).



Civil and Weapons Facility Separation

Indian weapons program has been intertwined with the nuclear power program to minimize cost

as well to leverage on each other, including beating US/NSG ban on export of dual use material.

“India-US Civil Nuclear Agreement” now acknowledges the Indian weapons program, yet unlike

the privileges enjoyed by other nuclear weapons states, it proscribes continued NSG enforcement

of global ban on export of dual use material/equipment to Indian classified program consisting of

not just weapons programs but also R&D of Thorium based 3 stage fuel cycle for power

generation. The continued embargo will thus impose high cost on weapons program as well as

thorium based electric power generation.



Per the separation plan most of the facilities will go to civilian side, yet the facilities in the

classified weapons side are fast approaching end of life thus requiring even more investments.

Lacking the investment of about US$ 30 billion over the next 5 years, it is clear that the nuclear

weapons program will be crippled. The above cost is for:

1. 7 -10 research reactors (150 MW modified and scaled up R-5/Dhruv design)

2. 3 - 4 heavy water plants15

3. 2 - 3 re-processing plants physically removed from the safeguarded sites

4. 2 - 3 fuel fabrication plants

5. Scientific facilities - hot cells, plutonium foundries, libraries etc.

6. Duplication and up gradation of scientific skills built on knowledge over 40 years

7. Laser Ignition ICF Facility including two independent design and review teams

8. Fast Breeder Reactor test facility

9. Physics collaboration programs in universities