BJP Future - 7

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[quote name='ramana' date='23 July 2010 - 12:41 PM' timestamp='1279906417' post='107592']

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Is Congress forcing Nitish to be part of UPA?



Dalits-16% MBC(non-OBC)-30% OBC(Kurmi,Koeri, bania and Yadavs)-24% Forward Castes-13% Muslims-17%





The above is a rough breakdown of the groups in bihar and this of significance, because unlike other states in India, people in bihar vote mostly on caste/religious allegiance.



So lets look for the locked categories.



As of now, the yadavs will only vote for Lalu Yadav. The kurmi’s will vote for JD(U). The MBC’s (30%) used to be evenly split between JD(U) and RJD, since they never vote for congress or BJP or any other party. But since Nitish is in ruling now and due to some visible progress on the ground, the scribe has enough reason to believe that the MBC vote will be split 20-10 in favour of Nitish. The obc’s other than yadav and kurmi will be evenly split across BJP, JD(U) and RJD.



So we based on the above calculations, we have so far



RJD (Locked): 11 (yadav) + 10 (mbc) + 1 (other OBC) = 22%



JD(U) (Locked): 5 (kurmi) + 20 (mbc) + 3 (other OBC) = 28%



BJP (Locked): 4 (other OBC) = 4%



This covers 54% of the population.



Dalits (16%), Muslims (17%) and Fwd Caste (13%) are the swingers now.



As of now, the fwd caste perceives that BJP is their best bet, due to 2 reasons. The BJP has put the right candidates to support their interests and also because Fwd caste is a power hungry sections that likes to dominate. So they feel that since Nitish is on a winning wicket, and since BJP is in alliance they can cling on to power by voting for BJP. They prefer voting for a nitish ally to cling on to power, because they cannot even imagine voting to a BC caste leader like Nitish directly.



So that settles the fwd caste equation, they will vote for a nitish ally, more specifically they can vote for congress or bjp whoever allies with Nitish. This is nothing new for them, since they have voted for decaded in favor of congress. Since BJP has locked them partially, it may result that, if nitish congress alliance takes place, fwd caste will be split between bjp and congress.



The muslims are in a big dilemna as to whom they shd vote for? Nitish thinks that they vote for him, but they dont. They are also very smart in that way, their leaders tell nitish that muslims will vote for him, so that he does not do anything anti-muslim in alliance with BJP, but they only vote for RJD or Congress. They used to vote for RJD, since congress was a zero in Bihar. But again if congress goes for alliance with Nitish, they will swing en-masse to Nitish congress alliance.



Dalits in bihar see paswan as their leader, they may well continue to think the same, but traditionally in India, dalits have sided with congress except in bihar and UP. So if they see congress coming to power they may side with congress, but it is the same like fwd caste here, paswan may have locked them a little bit too much. So if congress allys with nitish dalit vote might split.



So in essence if Nitish goes with BJP



NItish + BJP = 28 % (Nitish Locked) + 4% (BJP locked) + 13 % (Fwd caste for BJP, if they ally with NItish) = 45%.



But Nitish does not feel comfortable with BJP on many occasions and feels that he can be a ruler of Bihar by himself, so for now, he feels he can get muslims in his kitty by going with congress and then maybe get rid of congress also.



Nitish + Cong = 28% (Nitish Locked) + 17% (Muslims) + lets say (5% fwd caste becos of congress ) + 5% (Dalit vote) = 55 %.



This is what is driving his calculation and congress is desperate to get a foothold in bihar and they are using their power at the center to make a repeat of orissa in bihar. They used all agencies to make naveen split with bjp in orissa and now see the sequence of events in Bihar/Gujarat.



(1) During 2009 elections there was an expectation to bring Nitish into INC fold. The reason is Laloo will never jump to BJP because Ino-Pak stlye fight between forward castes and Yadavs there.

(2) Nitish is trying to get a piece of Mullas so that he can have a better leaverage

(3) BJP poured cold water by sending Modi and indirectly conveying that, if you try to desert us, will make you look anti-muslim.

(4) Nitish thought it is better to stick to BJP or did he fool them and will he ditch them at the last moment.

(5) INC is very irritated at the change of fortunes

(6) It brought out CBI cases against Nisth to blakmail him (stick)

(7) It progressed on Modi using CBI ( carrot to Nitish) and now troubling him like no end to it. At the same time, INC in bihar is campaigning with nitish modi posters together and putting pressure on him to get out of NDA.



If INC does not ally with Nitish, but keep putting gujarat govt under pressure thereby trying to improve their image among muslims, then eventually muslims of bihar will be confused as to whom to vote for, laloo or congress. Muslims feel for other muslims across the globe, so punishing modi delights them wherever they are, but if INC does not ally with nitish they will be confused and in the end their vote will be split and NDA will win handsomely in Bihar.

(8) Nitish may do like Naveen of orissa exactly after elections are declared ( he is already doing by asking about 170 seats)

(9) INC and Nitish will form a grand Secular alliance and get all Mullah votes. it will be Mullah+Kurmis+some OBC to Nitish+INC. INC will get more seats freely eventhough they are bankurpt. Dalits will swing too as Paswan is weak

10) Yadavs + some OBCs + few dalits to Paswan and Laloo

11) Forward castes may swing to INC as well sensing the loss of power. This is the typical behavior in Ganga kinarewale. BJP becomes semi-nanaga.



This strategy is the best for INC to force through the state using Nitish. However time will tell if Nitish wants to fall for this and exit into oblivion later like all those who touched INC as a coalition partner.