11-13-2010, 02:23 AM
[quote name='ramana' date='11 November 2010 - 05:57 PM' timestamp='1289515788' post='109200']
Any Bihar updates?
[/quote]
That is the beauty of extremely elongated election schedule. The elections will become low key and interested will keep away from watching the political and electoral situation. The educated become busy in their lives so that the percentages going to polling stations will be low. The mobilized ones become the largest chunk in the whoever votes. To me it does not make any sense to have state elections in seven phases. It just looks to be a best weapon to manipulate.
Coming back to Bihar elections:
It is difficult to analyze the winner if the EVMs are seriously manipulated. The question of NDA victory is not really being discussed. It is concluded that NDA will win but the questions and speculation/analysis is about the seat margin that NDA partners will get. ( In 2004 LS NDA was in the same situation until it lost <img src='http://www.india-forum.com/forums/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smile.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='
' /> )
From my understanding, NDA did not/will not get substantial votes from Yadavs+related backward castes and also from Muslims. If we go by that logic NDA should get a comfortable simple majority like 115 to 125 seats.
However, certain media outlets and media persons are throwing numbers like 160 to 180 for NDA. They are even putting JDU itself getting 95 which is very near to the borderline. To me JDU getting 95 or 100 is just one of the two:
(1) EVMs are completely rigged beyond anyone can even imagine ( it is like the fake wrestling show WWF)
(2) INC is running a psy-ops campaign using Nielsen and media outlets so that BJP could become apprehensive and spoil JDU's chances in certain constituencies so that NDA will not win comfortably.
I tend to side on (2). Here is my reasoning:
For a while let us assume that NDA gets 160 (JDU-100 and BJP-60). The remaing 83 has to be split between independents, Laloo, Paswan and INC which could be 10,38,15,20 respectively.
In reality this kind of result is advantageous to BJP. Nitish going into secular mould using congress and others is out of question. What is the advantage for Nitish to go out of NDA and be part of UPA? Is he going to be a PM? Why would he leave a margin of 160 and settle for a margin of 125 with blackmailing independents and INC? Laloo becomes too vulenerable and he will leave his mullah-giri politics and he may be willing to extend his hand to BJP (BJP folks hate Laloo and that is a different aspect). I don't think Nitish is a fool though not a reliable one for NDA. In fact by sticking to NDA, he could be a consensus PM candidate in case UPA-2 breaks up as he is the one acceptable to sickular types in NDA+ (TDP, *DMK types)
I did not analyze seat-by-seat this time but from my point of view NDA will get a simple majority and will continue to rule the state in the same fashion. Nitish would definitely try to keep BJP as junior as possible in the cabinet but beyond that I don't see any dramatic shifts.
Two caution points regarding Bihar:
(1) If BJP or JDU fell for the psy-ops and ditched each other is certain constituencies, then the government will be shaky. I do not expect this unless under this garb, EVMs are manipulated. No analysis is useful if EVM rigging has to be taken into consideration.
(2) BJP in Bihar is a substantial forward caste party. Brahmins, bhoomihars, kayasts are solidly with BJP. These folks are politically savvy and do not like to be in the "second fiddle" position for a long time. Since 1989, they really either became irrelevant during Laloo times or really in "second fiddle" situation under Nitish. I don't expect them to have a lot of patience and continue in the same situation under Nitish again. We have to see what could be their plans.
I will not worry too much about Bihar but am very interested in TN, AP and Maha. Next two months will be really interesting.
Any Bihar updates?
[/quote]
That is the beauty of extremely elongated election schedule. The elections will become low key and interested will keep away from watching the political and electoral situation. The educated become busy in their lives so that the percentages going to polling stations will be low. The mobilized ones become the largest chunk in the whoever votes. To me it does not make any sense to have state elections in seven phases. It just looks to be a best weapon to manipulate.
Coming back to Bihar elections:
It is difficult to analyze the winner if the EVMs are seriously manipulated. The question of NDA victory is not really being discussed. It is concluded that NDA will win but the questions and speculation/analysis is about the seat margin that NDA partners will get. ( In 2004 LS NDA was in the same situation until it lost <img src='http://www.india-forum.com/forums/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smile.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='
' /> )From my understanding, NDA did not/will not get substantial votes from Yadavs+related backward castes and also from Muslims. If we go by that logic NDA should get a comfortable simple majority like 115 to 125 seats.
However, certain media outlets and media persons are throwing numbers like 160 to 180 for NDA. They are even putting JDU itself getting 95 which is very near to the borderline. To me JDU getting 95 or 100 is just one of the two:
(1) EVMs are completely rigged beyond anyone can even imagine ( it is like the fake wrestling show WWF)
(2) INC is running a psy-ops campaign using Nielsen and media outlets so that BJP could become apprehensive and spoil JDU's chances in certain constituencies so that NDA will not win comfortably.
I tend to side on (2). Here is my reasoning:
For a while let us assume that NDA gets 160 (JDU-100 and BJP-60). The remaing 83 has to be split between independents, Laloo, Paswan and INC which could be 10,38,15,20 respectively.
In reality this kind of result is advantageous to BJP. Nitish going into secular mould using congress and others is out of question. What is the advantage for Nitish to go out of NDA and be part of UPA? Is he going to be a PM? Why would he leave a margin of 160 and settle for a margin of 125 with blackmailing independents and INC? Laloo becomes too vulenerable and he will leave his mullah-giri politics and he may be willing to extend his hand to BJP (BJP folks hate Laloo and that is a different aspect). I don't think Nitish is a fool though not a reliable one for NDA. In fact by sticking to NDA, he could be a consensus PM candidate in case UPA-2 breaks up as he is the one acceptable to sickular types in NDA+ (TDP, *DMK types)
I did not analyze seat-by-seat this time but from my point of view NDA will get a simple majority and will continue to rule the state in the same fashion. Nitish would definitely try to keep BJP as junior as possible in the cabinet but beyond that I don't see any dramatic shifts.
Two caution points regarding Bihar:
(1) If BJP or JDU fell for the psy-ops and ditched each other is certain constituencies, then the government will be shaky. I do not expect this unless under this garb, EVMs are manipulated. No analysis is useful if EVM rigging has to be taken into consideration.
(2) BJP in Bihar is a substantial forward caste party. Brahmins, bhoomihars, kayasts are solidly with BJP. These folks are politically savvy and do not like to be in the "second fiddle" position for a long time. Since 1989, they really either became irrelevant during Laloo times or really in "second fiddle" situation under Nitish. I don't expect them to have a lot of patience and continue in the same situation under Nitish again. We have to see what could be their plans.
I will not worry too much about Bihar but am very interested in TN, AP and Maha. Next two months will be really interesting.