11-18-2010, 02:30 PM
Arunji,
I have some questions.
1. The wikipedia page on TSP's WMD claims that TSP has in development a Ghauri III of 3500 km range and 1800+kg payload, a Shaheen III of 5000+ range with 2200+kg payload and an ICBM of 7500km+range and 4500+kg payload...It looks exaggerated. How far is this true ? To me, these seem like notional missiles, since on and off, I have heard their names for the past several years.
2. As far as I can see, with Agni III , a real (now ready for induction) BM as opposed to notional one, we overtook TSP as far as ballistic missile technology are concerned. This gap will be reinforced with Agni-V. The only way they can get something similar is if China gives them a DF-31/31A. This is unlikely. What is your assesment? Mine is that at most, they would get new north korean liquid fuelled IRBM of 3000-3500 km range based on Soviet R-27. Its payload is however, way inferior to Agni-III.
3. It is interesting to note Bharat Karnad's book which says that the 6000km+ SLBM we are developing is being done by a group different from the one developing A-V. The SLBM, he points out, will be more sophisticated (plus somewhat better range for the same payload going by the figures he quotes).
He never mentions an intermediate SLBM between K-15 and the long range one exceeding Agni-V parameters (he refers to A-V as Agni-IV).
4. From what I hear, RC's fizzle is not RC's. RC is a "research politician" rather than an engineer or scientist. In this sense, he is very different ffrom AK, whohas played a major role at least in reactor building (dhruva),and therefore has some concrete achievements to his credit unlike RC. RC has done no work in weapon design, but got his name attached to this work in order to claim credit for himself. This is what I hear.
5. In any case, Bharat Karnad is very confident that the question is not if, but when, we test again. Our govt. (in spite of maino, etc) position of "unilateral moratorium" rather than CTBT indicates that this confidence that we will again test in the future is well informed. How close to the establishment is BK ? (P.S: I do not include MMS. He is only maino's puppet).
6. you said we are going for the Su-34 to deliver a big credible payload to deter those who wont be deterred by the 50kt max. credible yield on the missiles. What sort of big payload is this ? A TN payload of a very conservative, but crude (and therefore, too heavy for missile) design ? Is the massive payload of 1.5 ton of A-III also for such a thing (BK mentions a 1 MT single warhead in his book. 1 MT for a 1.5 ton payload is really a very poor yield/weight ratio. This is reinforced when we hear from Chandraguptaji that 1.5ton is payload, while throwweight is 1.5 ton +extra 1 ton or so for penetration aids.
I have some questions.
1. The wikipedia page on TSP's WMD claims that TSP has in development a Ghauri III of 3500 km range and 1800+kg payload, a Shaheen III of 5000+ range with 2200+kg payload and an ICBM of 7500km+range and 4500+kg payload...It looks exaggerated. How far is this true ? To me, these seem like notional missiles, since on and off, I have heard their names for the past several years.
2. As far as I can see, with Agni III , a real (now ready for induction) BM as opposed to notional one, we overtook TSP as far as ballistic missile technology are concerned. This gap will be reinforced with Agni-V. The only way they can get something similar is if China gives them a DF-31/31A. This is unlikely. What is your assesment? Mine is that at most, they would get new north korean liquid fuelled IRBM of 3000-3500 km range based on Soviet R-27. Its payload is however, way inferior to Agni-III.
3. It is interesting to note Bharat Karnad's book which says that the 6000km+ SLBM we are developing is being done by a group different from the one developing A-V. The SLBM, he points out, will be more sophisticated (plus somewhat better range for the same payload going by the figures he quotes).
He never mentions an intermediate SLBM between K-15 and the long range one exceeding Agni-V parameters (he refers to A-V as Agni-IV).
4. From what I hear, RC's fizzle is not RC's. RC is a "research politician" rather than an engineer or scientist. In this sense, he is very different ffrom AK, whohas played a major role at least in reactor building (dhruva),and therefore has some concrete achievements to his credit unlike RC. RC has done no work in weapon design, but got his name attached to this work in order to claim credit for himself. This is what I hear.
5. In any case, Bharat Karnad is very confident that the question is not if, but when, we test again. Our govt. (in spite of maino, etc) position of "unilateral moratorium" rather than CTBT indicates that this confidence that we will again test in the future is well informed. How close to the establishment is BK ? (P.S: I do not include MMS. He is only maino's puppet).
6. you said we are going for the Su-34 to deliver a big credible payload to deter those who wont be deterred by the 50kt max. credible yield on the missiles. What sort of big payload is this ? A TN payload of a very conservative, but crude (and therefore, too heavy for missile) design ? Is the massive payload of 1.5 ton of A-III also for such a thing (BK mentions a 1 MT single warhead in his book. 1 MT for a 1.5 ton payload is really a very poor yield/weight ratio. This is reinforced when we hear from Chandraguptaji that 1.5ton is payload, while throwweight is 1.5 ton +extra 1 ton or so for penetration aids.